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Posts: 1142

Shifu

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Q: Is this the beginning of the end?

-Economic uncertainty?

-Media control getting stricter by the day?

-Calls for studying Mao?

-Book sellers paraded on National TV?

remilitarization of the SCS?

-Crosses torn down in Wenzhou?

-Capital controls?

Is 2016 the Year of interesting times?

8 years 4 weeks ago in  General  - China

 
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Shifu

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Things have been trending this way for a few years. 

 

I think the peak of open, optimistic china was probably around 2010. That's kinda when growth started to stall and the cracks started to show on the whole "lets all get rich together!" mandate.

 

Every year more websites are blocked, and once they go they never come back. So the list only grows (as far as ive as seen at least, happy to be wrong on that)

 

Ive talked to people who've been here 10 yrs + and they've said it used to be that every year seemed like things were improving. More critical journalism, more real scholarship on political thought in academia, more western ideas becoming popular etc.

 

Then around 5-6 yrs ago the tide started to go out again. That's right when I got here too. Right around the new decade more and more sites started getting blocked, journalism and academia started getting reigned in more and more. The gradual process of opening up from the bowels of the revolutionary period was decided to have gone far enough, and started to again creep backwards.

 

And it's true the govt used to almost never talk studying Mao, people were too jaded for that. Part of that could just be that more and more people who remember how bad it really was have passed on. Tougher to say how Mao thought was genius when grandpa is there telling you stories about how his brothers starved to death and when he complained the party cadre had him publicly beaten as a counter-revolutionary

 

I just think the govt here is a spent force ideologically. Nobody believes in the communal aspects anymore, then that got replaced by "lets all get rich!", now that's kinda petered out. People are realizing that they aren't going to get rich slaving away for <3K/mth.  So it changes back to "the govt keeps us safe!" cause that's pretty much the only place left to go.

RiriRiri:

To this perfect statement I will add that I think this is a worldwide trend, with more and more individual freedoms being put under lockdown under the pretext of safety, and tighter control over academics and media.

 

Just a few years back it was a total outrage to even mention blocking websites for any reason. And Cisco took a huge amount of heat for alledgedly selling the tech to China in the first place. Now where are we? It seems the very same people are quite fine with it today, whether it be for ISIS propaganda or... torrents.

 

Most places on the planet are in that long overdue recession mode that's just inherent to the economic model everyone has chosen to follow (state sponsored Ponzi schemes of infinite money printing where everyone tries not to be the first to lose) and it seems the answer of the powers that be is being roughly the same only difference being the starting point and shrinking speed.

 

 

8 years 4 weeks ago
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expatlife26:

Right I agree it's not just a China phenomenon.

 

A lot of interesting writing around the US election this year and how the playbook has changed.

 

I don't know how old you are but i'm 28, and pretty much for my entire life the narrative has been that we don't really need to worry about the poor, nobody cool is working class and anybody with a shitty job just needs to buckle down and get that big promotion! 

 

But people are catching on that no, we can't all be bankers, doctors and engineers. MOST people are not gifted and are fated to have shitty wage-labor jobs for their entire lives. Politicians abandoned those people long before I was born so they're pissed off about it.

 

 

8 years 4 weeks ago
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RiriRiri:

Playbook hasn't really changed yet. I mean I really hope you guys get your shot at whatever is happening but I have doubts any way I look at it. 

Also I'm always on the pessimistic side but you really gotta hope you can get an anti-establishement figure in office because if you don't you can bet the next term will be all about making it so 2016 never ever happens again. Remember that and by all means call me on it if I'm wrong.

 

I'll turn 30 in a few days but I've been raised in Europe so the paradigm is slighly different than yours maybe but in essence it really all boils down to the same feeling of entitlement to the life we want without any downside (sit down and relax the government got you covered).

 

Well anyway I really see that as the 1% lunatics trying to fence around the 20% they need to actually run the thing and keep out the 80% cattle while fighting on the margin for who gets how much gravy for dinner. So no wonder the solutions that get worked out are variations of the same theme.

8 years 4 weeks ago
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8 years 4 weeks ago
 
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Emperor

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Aren't those things 'business as usual'?

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8 years 4 weeks ago
 
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This is a great deal, because China has the ability to take a 100 RMB and rename it 1000 RMB. Meaning China has an unlimited amount of aces up their sleeve. The term "End of" doesn't apply to a country that can do what they want from within one office. The U.S has to have approval from so many different sides and votes as well.

Shining_brow:

So what? It just means that everything will cost 10+ times more (obviously - people have to add more to make even more money...), While the rest of the world ignores China completely.

8 years 4 weeks ago
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ironman510:

Exactly, so what, thats why don't worrry. lol

8 years 4 weeks ago
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8 years 4 weeks ago
 
Posts: 2878

Shifu

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Things have been trending this way for a few years. 

 

I think the peak of open, optimistic china was probably around 2010. That's kinda when growth started to stall and the cracks started to show on the whole "lets all get rich together!" mandate.

 

Every year more websites are blocked, and once they go they never come back. So the list only grows (as far as ive as seen at least, happy to be wrong on that)

 

Ive talked to people who've been here 10 yrs + and they've said it used to be that every year seemed like things were improving. More critical journalism, more real scholarship on political thought in academia, more western ideas becoming popular etc.

 

Then around 5-6 yrs ago the tide started to go out again. That's right when I got here too. Right around the new decade more and more sites started getting blocked, journalism and academia started getting reigned in more and more. The gradual process of opening up from the bowels of the revolutionary period was decided to have gone far enough, and started to again creep backwards.

 

And it's true the govt used to almost never talk studying Mao, people were too jaded for that. Part of that could just be that more and more people who remember how bad it really was have passed on. Tougher to say how Mao thought was genius when grandpa is there telling you stories about how his brothers starved to death and when he complained the party cadre had him publicly beaten as a counter-revolutionary

 

I just think the govt here is a spent force ideologically. Nobody believes in the communal aspects anymore, then that got replaced by "lets all get rich!", now that's kinda petered out. People are realizing that they aren't going to get rich slaving away for <3K/mth.  So it changes back to "the govt keeps us safe!" cause that's pretty much the only place left to go.

RiriRiri:

To this perfect statement I will add that I think this is a worldwide trend, with more and more individual freedoms being put under lockdown under the pretext of safety, and tighter control over academics and media.

 

Just a few years back it was a total outrage to even mention blocking websites for any reason. And Cisco took a huge amount of heat for alledgedly selling the tech to China in the first place. Now where are we? It seems the very same people are quite fine with it today, whether it be for ISIS propaganda or... torrents.

 

Most places on the planet are in that long overdue recession mode that's just inherent to the economic model everyone has chosen to follow (state sponsored Ponzi schemes of infinite money printing where everyone tries not to be the first to lose) and it seems the answer of the powers that be is being roughly the same only difference being the starting point and shrinking speed.

 

 

8 years 4 weeks ago
Report Abuse

expatlife26:

Right I agree it's not just a China phenomenon.

 

A lot of interesting writing around the US election this year and how the playbook has changed.

 

I don't know how old you are but i'm 28, and pretty much for my entire life the narrative has been that we don't really need to worry about the poor, nobody cool is working class and anybody with a shitty job just needs to buckle down and get that big promotion! 

 

But people are catching on that no, we can't all be bankers, doctors and engineers. MOST people are not gifted and are fated to have shitty wage-labor jobs for their entire lives. Politicians abandoned those people long before I was born so they're pissed off about it.

 

 

8 years 4 weeks ago
Report Abuse

RiriRiri:

Playbook hasn't really changed yet. I mean I really hope you guys get your shot at whatever is happening but I have doubts any way I look at it. 

Also I'm always on the pessimistic side but you really gotta hope you can get an anti-establishement figure in office because if you don't you can bet the next term will be all about making it so 2016 never ever happens again. Remember that and by all means call me on it if I'm wrong.

 

I'll turn 30 in a few days but I've been raised in Europe so the paradigm is slighly different than yours maybe but in essence it really all boils down to the same feeling of entitlement to the life we want without any downside (sit down and relax the government got you covered).

 

Well anyway I really see that as the 1% lunatics trying to fence around the 20% they need to actually run the thing and keep out the 80% cattle while fighting on the margin for who gets how much gravy for dinner. So no wonder the solutions that get worked out are variations of the same theme.

8 years 4 weeks ago
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8 years 4 weeks ago
 
Posts: 7178

Emperor

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Going by the title, I thought this was a Trump thread.

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8 years 4 weeks ago
 
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Emperor

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Id suggest it started as the last 10-year president and his sidekick were on their way out, and the new ones were jockeying for position... a position they've maintained.

 

Also, combined with the fact that China still had serious abuses of human rights - but was given the Olympic games, followed by the Expo in Shanghai...

 

They started being incredibly belligerent in SCS and Senkaku Islands - and yet still gets the Winter Olympics and G20.

 

So, in the CCP's mind is a) we don't want to be controlled by USA, b) we are big and tough (economics and ego), combined with c) we can get away with so much and the rest of the world will still kowtow to us! And lastly, they have gotten to a technological level where they don't need the rest of the world so much. They figure (incorrectly, I might add) that we need them much more than they need us.

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8 years 4 weeks ago
 
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It certainly seems like China has taken a new direction. I'm not sure how much of it is by choice and how much is just the changing times China is going through and the decisions made as a result of those challenges but it doesn't seem to me to be a very positive direction.

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8 years 4 weeks ago
 
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Just whatever it takes to keep the customer satisfied.  The moment the customer realizes he's been taken for a ride is the time to get off the merry-go-round.  

Sooner, rather than later, says my brain.  So...watch out....'Let's give them Taiwan' in order to keep the customers satisfied for just a little longer.

 

Take away?  Visit Taiwan while it's still there.

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8 years 4 weeks ago
 
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It's the beginning of the end.
It's the first day of the rest of your life.
Carpe diem. Live the day like it's on purpose.

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8 years 4 weeks ago
 
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I guess the Chinese thought making the government rich (and select people that screw over others) would solve all their issues. Now they are pissed off and the government has to point figures at things like religion, foreigners and traitors...  but we all know the officials are the worst of all and the people are learning that too. 

 

Nothing really new but China's time in the spotlight (which I personally think was around 2000 - 2010) is now over. The are reverting and becoming more like North Korea. Making idiotic decisions because they can't control their pissed off population of man-children and tantrum throwers. 

 

There have been lots of warnings, I finally took it and moved back to Canada at an excellent time while 1 USD = 1.4 CAD and while the RMB was at its strongest. 

 

Jump ship before it starts sinking... all the signs are there. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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8 years 4 weeks ago
 
Posts: 27

Governor

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The changes I've noticed this year (been living here for 5 years):

 

a) can't get a work visa any more due to new visa rules (been told last week);

b) school convenience stores on campus stopped selling coffee (just this year);

c) the number of activities glorifying China and the party has increased, as the result, lessons been randomly cancelled to the great surprise of teachers and students (this year);

d) Chinese friends (mostly businessmen) complaining that there profits being in decline (last year and this year); 

e) weak demand for real estate + weakening of RMB (2015-2016)

 

Don't know what to expect next(((

Janosik:

leden, January, you look to be Czech, right? Why are you surprised that you cannot get the visa renewal when you are moving in "gray area" (ja se snazim bejt vzdycky zdvorilej) to say it very very mildly for quite some time already. Like it or hate it but China authorities simply believe that bunch of native English "children" will help China to increase Engklish proficiency ... Irrespective what is the real case, one thing is clear. You are not qualified as per China law! Nothing to do with anything else. And you, instead of being happy that China starts to really implement own law, so you are complaining? Complaining about what? That China law enforcement increased? OK, congratulation!

8 years 3 weeks ago
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leden:

@Janosik, My post is about changes I've noticed this year. Regarding new visa rules,I'll only benefit from it, however feel sorry for those who will have to leave: 4 of my friends among them. Can't say however that I share your views on education, since as I see it unqualified Chinese English teachers being more of a problem here (those who can't really use the language to speak) than non-natives like me or others.

8 years 3 weeks ago
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Janosik:

OK, your 4 friends were not supposed to come here.

They were breaking/bending the law (or somebody did it for them - neznalost zakona neomlouva).

I agree with you that China could take much better approach to teaching English.

I would suggest three steps:

1) Cancel all foreign teachers visas

2) Carefully select the most appropriate local English teachers

3) Recruit only the best foreign teachers (in this case only native speakers - sorry if you are not) and let them properly teach the selected local English teachers.

 

Yes, this could be a way forward.

8 years 3 weeks ago
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8 years 4 weeks ago
 
Posts: 426

Governor

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And I think you exaggerating.
I do not know how will the Chinese economic develop further (I am afraid even politburo is not so sure ...) but one thing is clear, this government, as.any other recent Chinese government, is not maoistic.
China is going through the extremely fast development and it of course has its ups and downs.
Especially in the environment of global economic crisis and additional crisis in EU (big China customer).
We cannot see China without perspective of global situation anymore.
China came back to the position of one of the world superpowers and.is then influence by the global environment.
And no you can freely call me wumao Smile
I do not really care Wink

rasklnik:

Your comments lack a hypothesis...and any evidence. So what does your comment even mean? You didn't discuss media freedom. You didn't discuss military build up. And you barely mention the economy. All you wrote is a bunch of platitudes. How sad.

 

8 years 3 weeks ago
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RiriRiri:

You rose quite a lot of subjects in your question, guess he might have skipped a page in his wumao talking points handbook.

 

As for expecting a hypothesis... come on even their propagandists on the Guardian or SCMP can't do that.

 

it's going to happen exactly like last time: make him face his contradictions, frustrate him, let him blow and then his supervisor will recall him until next time.

8 years 3 weeks ago
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Janosik:

@rasklnik

I touched economy and Maoism.

The rest of what you mentioned I do not really see so important ...

Sorry.

But happy you agree with me on economy and Maoist part of your question.

8 years 3 weeks ago
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Janosik:

@RiRi

Man (or Woman), you really need a professional assistance.

Allow me not waste my time by discussing with you - I saw Shining to really waste so much energy and it all just resembled 'feeding the troll'. 

8 years 3 weeks ago
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