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Posts: 61

Governor

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Q: China buying European and American debt - what does it mean in the long run?

What's the strategy behind bailing out the failing western economies? Is it only to sustain these countries in the backdrop of a global economy, or will it bring major bonuses in the future for China?

12 years 32 weeks ago in  Money & Banking - China

 
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Posts: 5539

Emperor

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remember england went into debt during ww2 to usa . after ww2 who became the richest nation in the world? will history repeat itself? international corporations have no loyalty to any country

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12 years 32 weeks ago
 
Posts: 105

Governor

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The relationship between the US and China is very interdependent. China buys US bonds to fuel our debt, and we imports tons of cheap goods from China. Right now the US is sustaining China (as we are their biggest trade partner) and China is sustaining the US.

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12 years 32 weeks ago
 
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sunny: the relationship is a parasitic one, they are sucking us dry. (not in a good way)
international corporations are abusing the global economy in order to force the workers in develop countries to lower their standards and accept less pay and benefits. you have morons in america who are lobbying to dismantle the EPA and end environmental regulations , so that these companies will come back home.

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12 years 32 weeks ago
 
Posts: 277

Shifu

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First, I'd like to point out that there is no one single idea or concept that can describe an economy. So to say an economy is "bad", or that a nation is "poor" is just a generalization, and there are a lot of different situations that are a mix of good and bad. I'll try to look at two more specific measures: exchange rates (value of the RMB relative to the Euro and the dollar) and then unemployment.

 

I think it would be fair to start with exchange rates. A trade surplus like what China has means a constant accumulation of foreign currency, in this case Euros and Dollars. While it is easy to say that the balance of trade depends on exchange rates, it is harder to say that the reverse is true, that exchange rates adjust to the balance of trade. This is because this accumulation of Euros and Dollars means that China is able to buy assets that belong to the US and Europe. In this case it means Government Debts, real estate, and other things. In theory, as China buys more and more of these assets, there will be a point where buying more of these things will be less attractive to China. When that happens, the RMB will start to rise against the Dollar and the Euro, eventually reaching what is called "Purchasing Power Parity", meaning goods in the USA will have the same price, when exchange rates are taken into account, as similar goods in China.

 

So now lets look at unemployment. In a situation like what I've described above, the loss of foreign investment will not have a very big impact on unemployment because of the types of investment that are occuring. So the main factor is the balance of trade. If the USA and Europe see their currency depreciate against the RMB, imports will fall because these goods become more expensive. At the same time, exports will rise because goods from the USA and Europe will become cheaper in China. Everyone can see that China has a rapidly growing consumer culture that is obsessed with western goods, so this can only lead to lower levels of Unemployment for the USA and Europe in the long run.

 

I don't agree with the doomsayers who think China will own everything in the long run and make America and Europe go bankrupt. We are talking about sovereign nations, so there's no way that China can force us to pay back more than we want to or are able to. In all actuality, because China might have difficulty collecting on its debts to us, and because China's economy is based on exporting cheap goods to the west, and because the USA has such a strong military, I don't see this as being much different than the historical colonialism and imperialism of the past. It is China who will suffer in the long run, possibly facing a social and economic crisis when it fails to maintain high levels of growth in the future.

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12 years 2 weeks ago
 
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Uh, it's not because they're failing economies. It's because it's an investment for China. You wanna talk failing, you should look at all the aid and food has given China over the years. 

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12 years 2 weeks ago
 
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People in pretty much every country have been buying bonds from the feds since before you were born. They do this because USD is stable (as far as currencies go). Other countries regulate their own currencies, often, based on the stability of these bonds.

 

The fed buys and sells bonds because it is an easy way to remove from or add to the circulating body of currency, and control inflation/deflation. And they've been doing it that way since before you were born. When you buy a bond, you don't buy any kind of power, you buy a piece of paper that you're pretty sure the US will pay you back for with interest, pretty much when they feel like it. If anything, you're putting your cards in their hands. China regulates its own currency based on its vast reserve of little pieces of paper some fat American government bureaucrat wrote (their reserve consists of bonds, real US currency, plus a few Euros). The entire value of the RMB depends on the fact that these bonds will maintain their value. If the USD really goes to hell, the US will fall back on the insane amounts of gold its been hoarding. If the RMB really goes to hell, China will fall back on the little pieces of American paper. Who's controlling who?

 

No one is buying debt, they're buying into the idea of America's economic stability, and the western world's economy is going through the same cycle it's been going through forever. This is the third time in my life that people have proclaimed it's all over. In five years they'll be advising each other to make a killing off real estate and max out their credit cards again, and in ten years they'll be saying it's all over for the western world again.  It's a roughly a ten year cycle that started in the 60s and there's no end in sight. Why people have such short term memories is beyond me. Probably because they muddle their heads with emotionally charged, meaningless slogans like the OP managed to string together.

 

All this nonsense is sloganeering hype and doublespeak. During the last crisis, the EU was supposed to be buying America. Two crises ago, it was Japan. Whatever the hell happened to that? It's like you panick-mongers are playing a big games of mad-libs. What a waste of brain cells.

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12 years 2 weeks ago
 
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