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Q: Does anyone think China is heading for a serious disaster?
Lots and lots of terrorist attacks, knife attacks, etc. They seem aimless: they are attacking Han and Uyghur alike
They went from using knives, to SUVs and bombs. SUVs. In China, SUVs are expensive. Is someone rich funding this?
9 years 47 weeks ago in Health & Safety - China
I would look at the frequency of these attacks over the population size. It's not to say it's negligible, far from that. It's worrying, because it hurt innocent people who just carry on their simple lives.
For a disaster, I would not look only at this, it's one point in the whole picture. In 2009, the Chinese gouv. deployed a *massive* financial stimulus. That money was supposed to be spend to build assets that would be useful and productive in the future, while providing jobs for the population. 2014, what that money became ?
That money have been spend in to build offices nobody needs (I read here and there there's 15 to 20 meter/square of office space in China, for each Chinese), to build flats only the richest can afford. It was built with shoddy standard by underpaid labor. That labor won't be able to improve their life level, nor their kids : the stimulus did not much improved lives. It's not only real-estate, there are several industries which suffer from over-capacity, shoddy standard and inefficient/outdated techs (textbook examples : steel, cement, solar panels) built on the back of peons.
Meanwhile, those expensive flats/offices have been bought by the rich as investment. Because, yeah, creating innovative industries or useful things, no can't do sir, let's have the tuhao's life instead.The funny thing is, this kind of investment works only if there are people to buy flats. If all the people who can buy flats have lots of them, then, offer & demand, the price goes down. Which is happening ... right now ... Money that could have been invested in something productive, will disappear because it was used to make empty shells by underpaid labor.
Wait, there's more ! Credit crunch : the Chinese government, seeing the bubble I describe above coming, tightened loans. So people just take loans from shaddy businesses instead of banks. The bubble keep growing, with very heavy credit. Industries which business is *not* real estate or local governments contracted huge debts towards non-official banks to build mooooaaarrr real estate.
Meanwhile, if you're born in a poor countryside, the Chinese dream is fairly limited. Yup, lots of high-speed trains and a space-station, but countryside schools are backward and don't provide lots of opportunities to kids. Ever watched the Chinese TV show "The Exchange" ? And I go on, healthcare is awful, etc, etc. Pollution never been worst. Population is aging, and guess who will care of the elders : you, little Chinese citizen, not the state, nada, zilch.
Bubble, recession (thus, harder to get job, inflation going faster than income raise), lots of money wasted, promise of Chinese dream that went nowhere, and fair chances of social climbing being void. Schools are *shit*, they at best can produce drones, and competence matters much less than who you know. People might be a tad angry, and throwing iPhones at them might not work anymore.
Hulk:
This is a very well-thought out post, I agree with you.
And I've seen schools in the countryside. I've been to them as well. They're TRAAAAAAAAAAAAASH, but at least the children can learn *something*. They do get a decent Chinese/math education, but that's it. The rest is indoctrination.
DrMonkey:
@Hulk Yes, I don't want to look down on countryside teachers, they are *very* courageous and do a lot for the country and those kids. Those teachers work with super limited resources, they have themselves a very limited training, compared to teachers & school in a 1st tier city. That was good enough to train factory drones and peons, on whom the "Chinese Miracle" was built. But this model reached its limit, the "miracle" is leaving, with a large trail of pollution. The industries are leaving too, to cheaper places. Those schools (nor the 1st- tiers cities school) don't train the people the country need : people who can create industries and earn enough to buy what they produce.
Hulk:
My wife grew up in the countryside. Her parents are poor farmers who worked their asses off to get her into a good school in a big city. They did a really good job.
My wife actually got a very good education, but I can see the limitations of it. In America, she learns far more than she did then. However, those countryside teachers taught her how to speak broken English. She could write it really well, but her speech was a little durr (mispronunciations and some malformed grammar, but generally very understandable).
Then we met, and her English rapidly improved.
When we went back to her hometown to get her passport, I met her teacher who had been teaching English there for a long time. With her limited resources, she was actually able to teach them a fair bit. I was able to have a small conversation with her, and I could actually understand her.
Even though they lacked resources, they don't seem to lack ambition.
You know what the funny thing is? Japanese people built her school out of generosity (it was donated), and in the school the teachers taught the students to hate Japan. LOL
Scandinavian:
Actually China has far more sqr/mtr living area than Europe, that is the already built part, not thinking of the "planned". I don't remember the number (I've posted a link to an article in an old thread) but it is like 50% more per person than in Europe, yet you still have people living in cramped places because, as you write, the majority cannot afford the housing.
They are planning to tear down an entire neighbourhood here in town, a guess would be that 5-10000 people, two schools and lots of small businnesses would be relocated. The neighborhood is actually really nice, the buildings are ugly but the people there seem content, and the crappiness is only on the outside, inside all is well. Yet, down it goes even though this actually is affordable housing (you could get a 2 bedroom decent shape apartment there for less than half a million) but it is also a prime location, pretty downtown
The average salary now in most cities is approximately 2000-3000 RMB. In rural areas, it is like 500-1000 RMB.
Almost all of these people want to buy apartments in cities. The lowest I hear about is like 3000 RMB per square meter in fifth Tier cities and more like 20 000-50 000+ in larger cities. So for a rural person, that means 3 months for one square meter (BEST SCENARIO).
It's insane... if you do math... these people simply CAN NOT pay off their housing loans. Some argue that many people live in the same house. That is changing... and not entirely true. The movement is that young couples are starting to demand more privacy and live in their own apartments within the city... this is mainly due to the fact a residence is required for the kids to go to a "better" school.
The whole thing is messed up. Basically, poor folk have slave like hell to afford a home they can't afford to buy just so they can send their kids to a school where the child has some kind of competitive chance for the future... All the while, perhaps slaving in a place where the air is dirty as hell, you are getting bullied by officials, stabbed by terrorists...
If I was a rural Chinese person and promised a better and brighter future... I think I would be extremely pissed off right about now. Think it is only the rural people?
Think again, I know a Chinese guy that was renting out his apartment (he has 2 or 3) and now has to sell 2... why? Because he has no money. He borrowed to buy the apartments... went in over his head and now needs to sell them off.
What, you think all those apartments, BMWs, Mercedes Benz's and Audis are all paid for? Hell no!
They got loans and bought these things because they thought they were good investments (the cars obviously for face). It's all a facade, and I see it collapsing harshly in the next 10 years. Chinese will be looking for a reason and the government will point to the most convenient scapegoats... most likely foreigners (as past has taught us). Or they may just start up a war or something to distract the public and refocus that frustration on another country... most likely Japan or a smaller country that they are quarreling with... maybe Vietnam?
That's what North Korea does when things are unstable and they need aid. They threaten to go to war and blame foreigners. North Korea is like China's little crazier brother.
Hulk:
In the countryside, it's very true. It's changing somewhat, but it's true. They live together.
I've been to a place where like 35 people lived in the same house. They all pitched in together to have a very big house built. They also farmed their own crops for their families. It was a 5 story house with plenty of room for everyone. It was a damn mansion, but it was also a concrete box (a very beautiful concrete box, though).
25 people saving 700 RMB per month means they save 17,500 RMB per month. In the countryside, houses aren't as expensive. 200k RMB can get you a decent house for a smaller family (wife, kids, parents from both sides). But for 30 people? That's different.
If I recall correctly, the house only cost them a little under 1 million RMB. Those 35 people under one house, with only 25 people saving an average of 700 RMB, could've saved for that in under 5 years. Each person who earns money uses only 300 RMB for household expenses and food. This equals 7500 RMB per month for food and household goods. It's totally doable.
Hulk:
Oh and I've seen 1300 and 1500 RMB per square meter in Changsha back in 2012.
Seen wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy cheaper in the countryside, outside the main cities.
Robk:
I guess you could find cheaper if the apartment is near the outside of the city but probably not close to any of the good school districts.
Rural people live together more, in fact... I like rural China more than Urban or sub-urban. Yes, it is boring... but the people are way nicer, friendlier and happier.
The only thing getting them down in the dumps usually is money. Finding enough to marry off their son(s) usually. And trying to speak with them, since most of them can't really speak Mandarin very well.
China will see increasing violence, unless policies change. I doubt policies on the rebel provinces will change in the right manner, most likely it will get worse, policies towards the average Wang complaining about his crappy factory job is more likely to improve.
Does anyone think China isn't heading for a serious disaster?
DrMonkey:
Right now, it's heading toward serious difficulties, but it's hard to seriously predict how it will go. I'm personally not super optimistic, because the Chinese society is not exactly a model of solidarity and inventively, when it's going to be sorely needed. If I'm proven wrong, well, that would be great, really great.
It seems like the trend is copied from across the border. This type of horrible attacks were carried by militants in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Since Xinjiang is connected to Pakistan thus its quite possible they borrowed the idea from there. In 1970s and onwards it was limited to Afghanistan only but after 9/11 many refugees got into Pakistan and in 60% attacks they are involved one way or another. They have killed about 70000 Pakistani civilian and military personnel and the counts goes on as Pakistan military has started an operation couple of days ago. And I am worried it will result in more deadly terrorist attacks in the settled areas.
Dramatically in such attacks all the bombers are below 25 and in most cases below 20 which indicate the 'Brainwashing Factories' are breeding terrorism. I don't know about the attackers here in China but this is going to be tough if not controlled sooner.
I feel for the innocent people being killed so horribly in any part of the world. I am just curious about the western media role in explaining the terrorist attacks in Xinjiang as ' Separatist moves'. At one hand US has put its all efforts to eradicate the terrorism but at another the terrorism is mixed with separatism when it happens here in China. Terrorism anywhere in the world should be taken as 'Terrorism' and I think the hypocrisy should come to an end like when the fucking Al Qaida was fighting against Russia, they were regarded as 'Holy Warriors' but when it back fired turned in to terrorism. To me, Al Qaida fighting anyone was and is an extremist group and should have been taken so.
I am looking forward to peace everywhere except that I cannot see anything positive for humanity.
when I heard about the ethnic group there that pretty much answered all my questions
On a short term I am a lot more worried about the consequences of the economic slowdown and environmental issues. Industrialization and corruption have been allowed to run rampant in China for the last 30 years.The only thing holding China together today is economic growth.By their own admission they need to sustain 7-8% growth in their economy to maintain political stability.So they've traded the environment in exchange for that growth.But they've reached the saturation point of how much pollution they can expel into the environment and still survive in that environment.They recognize the problem...but are powerless to change it.It will get so bad that people will not be able to survive outside without filters.Children and the elderly will make up the largest percentage of victims who succumb to the poor air.People will be afraid...and then they'll get angry.And then the revolution begins.The carnage will be biblical in proportion.Economic, social and environmental ruination.Famine, disease and the resulting mass migrations will threaten all of China's neighbors. By 2015 there is expected to be 45 million young men between the ages of 18 and 30 who will have no hope of ever finding a bride.No hope of ever satisfying their fundamental biological imperative.45 million young men....with no hope for the future, in a country that has rendered as much as 25% of its arable land useless for agricultural purposes.45 million men in a country of 1.3 billion.. seeking life.
I hope they have a plan.
I haven't read this thread yet. I will later. But I want to record that yes, I think a serious disaster type scenario is in the not too distant future.
In fact, I despair for the future of this joint. Amongst the drones there are diamonds in the rough.
