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Q: The Trump Effect on Americans in China?
Now of course "for now" these are just basic non realistic questions.
1. Will Trump make it harder for Americans working in China to renew their Working visa permits this June 2017?, meaning that China will refuse to renew American workers permits.
2. Will China ban Americans from working in China? Why or why not?
3. Will Americans be required to leave China due to Trumps effects on the One China Policy & South China Sea?
4. If Americans are required to leave China what happens to those married to Chinese and with kids?
______
Yes, crazy, but these are the questions I've received in the last 72 hours from tons of friends. My friends know I keep my ear to the ground.
Here are my answers:
1. No, I feel Americans will still be allowed to renew and work here, at least for the next 3 years, wars take time to start. ( I feel there won't be a war.)
2. They might be more strict and picky, but I don't see a ban on U.S workers anytime soon or ever. At least my guts says with some logic.
3. No, if American are pushed out or asked to leave, that means the line has been crossed and economic dooms day is near, not a war with guns. More like a business conflict and sending messages, like Iran did yesterday by banning American visitors. I can see China pulling a stunt like this.
4. I'm 50/50 on this question, meaning that I think China will allow married American folks to stay but with a tight policy and very strict background checks again. But I can't see China asking us to leave our Chinese families unless a full World War breaks out and I don't see a war happening, China plans to offer their economy ideas to Trump, rather than talk about war.
So what are ideas and views?
7 years 11 weeks ago in Visa & Legalities - China
Im a little hesitant to go back to China this year as per my post last week.
The Chinese government doesn't do much to curb the Nationalist protests .
if a couple of foreigners were to be sacraficed it wouldn't be the end of the world for China.
is it really worth the risk staying in China if you can leave?
ironman510:
To be honest I really don't feel this will happen, I feel everyone is still very safe, I feel fine and at peace with the public, so I believe this is what will continue to happen. If you were to return I think you'd be perfectly fine. No reason to overreact just yet, way too early to worry this much when nothing has really happened yet. No one should fall victim to paranoid delusion. Everything is gonna be fine n China. More stricter polices is all that you will see.
This is why Trump is actually a good thing. Anyone who thinks the trade imbalance should continue is insane. Goods made in USA exported to China are taxed at 22% and vice versa, taxed at 2%. But China takes extra steps to markup foreign goods. Is this fair? China constantly shakes down foreign companies and ban them in order to protect their domestic companies. Correcting this was never going to be easy. Now Trump is going about this the wrong way, entirely (being inflammatory). Fixing this could have always had a blow back effect on foreigners in China.
But Trump is the only politician crazy enough to respond the way necessary. Trump would probably target Chinese living and working in the Usa and send them packing back home. Imagine China being forced to deal with their citizens who were spoiled by a life of freedom.
ironman510:
It'll be interesting to see what happens to the investments Chinese made in the U.S but I'm betting most have a green card and they get to stay. Hope not.
retiredinchina:
the "art of the deal", start with something crazy you can never get and negotiate back, Trump is deliberately scaring the hell out of the chinese, trade wars, tariffs, etc to get a change in the numbers and he knows he can get a better deal being the asshole rather than the ass kissers we have had all the way back to henry kissinger.
ironman510:
@retired, I agree, he'll be an ass to get a better slice but won't destroy the relations. I just hope enough people get that point and go on with their lives here in peaceful new China because it will still be peaceful like it is today.
You feel there won't be a war... that's nice. In 1914 they felt the war would be over by Christmas. In 1988 many people incl. the "experts" felt the Soviet bloc would never collapse. Things change with terrifying speed, especially in the 21st century. Always have a backup plan and at least one eye open. I'm glad the bags i brought back to China with me last September are still half-packed.
ironman510:
Man, the world has matured a lot, and so has China. The Middle East is it's own worst problem that China doesn't have. So I'm sure your bags won't need to be packed until the end of your contracted agreement stay in China is up.
retiredinchina:
i hope your right, i see a 30 year stagflation down spiral just like japan had because of debts, overextensions, misuse of capital, wage gaps of classes, demographics, and I really dont see any bright spot left for China. if they cant create a fake democracy like singapore, and bring other countried to trust them, all i see is slow creeping despair, but some event we can not imagine could send this stuff falling real fast.
ironman510:
I do see the debts catching up with China, but they have their "own" ways to handle that. The bright spot we hope to find is that the home grown investors keep investing and outside investment keeps coming into China because its still very fresh here, there are a lot of policies that China could scrap to open the doors and save their own skin thus saving the relations with the U.S at the same time. Chinese have their own way to backdown without actually letting you see them backdown as a form or method if you will to save face. There is still a lot the U.S and China can do. As for the bans, China has no right to worry as they close their own borders to the world, they know that. I just wonder when the U.S will say out loud: We have too many people here and not enough jobs for them or gov money. Paris did 2 years ago. Someday the U.S will do the same.
This does make me worry a little bit.
I don't want war.
But with trump, i totally believe anything is possible.
So what are the backup plans that you guys have?
For me, I don't have any. Enjoying having my American boyfriend in my life and I really don't wish the political issues get in my way.
ironman510:
So you are Chinese and worried about your American boyfriend having to leave? No, don't worry, I totally Trust China and the U.S to keep their relationship going strong. The media and some guys here overreact, but don't buy into the drama. Japan & China has had similar conflicts and more but everything is still ok, and we will too. I'm in Shenzhen with my Chinese wife and I know nothing is gonna take us away from each other. There will be rocky days between the U.S & China but they'll smooth things out. I have no bags packed. Don't worry.
Bring the chaos, bring the war! China has a massive surplus of men, and a good, violent war could help reduce that surplus.
ironman510:
haha lets post job ads for POW ESL Teaching jobs down the road. lol
I am Canadian. But Id like to add my loonie. Because Americans and Canadians look almost identical. Q1) I don't think that will happen this year. I think the CPC will wait to see if Trump is impeached. Q2) I think the CPC will formally ban Americans from working if things get really tense, but give them work visas identifying them as Canadians. Although I think about half may get deported for various reasons. Q3) I doubt that it will be a single reason that would cause the CPC to deport Americans unless there was an actual blockade of the artificial Islands. Q4) I think this would make it dangerous for the Chinese spouse and the children on a social level. Many Chinese are blindly loyal to the CPC, but many are also decent people and know that this is just politics.
I really don't think a shooting war will break out. The CPC may talk about it to scare the rest of the world. China does have the muscle and money and infrastructure, but is hardly capable of waging an intercontinental war unless we are talking about nuclear tipped salvos. In which case this is a moot conversation because the human race will cease to exist. Moreover; warfare in the past has always sparked revolution. Russia 1917, Germany 1918, are a few examples. Point is the CPC would face an open rebellion.
ironman510:
Good post. I really don't think anything will happen, just a war of words rather than actions. Maybe some economical actions but not actions of war or army action.
ironman510:
Also I think its worth noting that Iran has taken front stage. China is in the far back seat for now. At least China didn't launch any missile tests lol
philbravery:
thats the problem....the focus goes off an issue and thats when it suddenly out of nowhere jumps up and bites you in the ass.
