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Posts: 7715

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Q: The U.N. Permanent Court of Arbitration... is irrelevant

So, today, the UN PCA - comprising 117 nations (including China since 1910) announced that it does have the right to hear the issue of the various islands (and occasional rock that pop up at low tide) between, specifically, China and the Philippines.

 

China, as we're probably aware, decided in a magnanimous gesture of international harmony and peace-keeping, not to attend the court, and basically said such a thing was "illegal" (which, of course, makes me wonder what the concept 'legal' is - if they are ignoring the UN laws/conventions on maritime issues).

 

Given that this UN ruling will pave the way for arbitration - which China will no doubt ignore again - and will likely go in favour of the Philippines - what's going to be the end result?

 

Should the UN give full rights to the Philippines.. what next?

 

(this is in 'relationships'.. cos it's about international relationships Laughing out loud)

8 years 21 weeks ago in  Relationships - China

 
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Shifu

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What should happen based on international law is that should it be found that the islands belong to the Philippines then the international community will demand China recognise the ruling and leave the area. Failure to do so would result in massive crippling sanctions designed to force change in their stance. The reality as Scotsalan said is that China (and Russia) would veto such actions. Countries also want to continue taking China's money so nothing will come of this. China will continue to have absolute free reign in the region and will build military bases there. From which the red lines will expand more once old maps have been found.

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8 years 21 weeks ago
 
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I think the UN is pretty much powerless on this issue.

 

China is a permanent member of the security council, so they will just veto any resolution on sanctions etc.

 

Rockall, a rock in the Atlantic ocean has been the subject of a similar dispute over ownership between the UK and Ireland. It's not identical, but it's a similar case in many ways.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rockall#Ownership

 

Personally, I don't really have an opinion on "ownership". But I do feel that the "stakeholder" with the most to lose has been left out of the argument.... the wild life.  I would rather see the reefs designated as a marine reserve rather than have them buried under millions of tons of sand.

 

Remember a few years back when a US warship ran aground on a Philippines reef?  The ship was taking a short cut through a marine reserve, and rather than re-float the vessel, it had to be written off and cut up on the spot to minimize damage to the reef.

 

If the disputed area was home to some critically endangered critters this whole dispute would be resolved a lot quicker, to the benefit of the wild life.

 

Forget the UN etc, real pressure comes from Hollywood luvvies and the WWF

 

 

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8 years 21 weeks ago
 
Posts: 1845

Shifu

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What should happen based on international law is that should it be found that the islands belong to the Philippines then the international community will demand China recognise the ruling and leave the area. Failure to do so would result in massive crippling sanctions designed to force change in their stance. The reality as Scotsalan said is that China (and Russia) would veto such actions. Countries also want to continue taking China's money so nothing will come of this. China will continue to have absolute free reign in the region and will build military bases there. From which the red lines will expand more once old maps have been found.

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8 years 21 weeks ago
 
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Shifu

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the un is irrelavant while the us pays 26 percent of the bill and gives a forum for the rest of the world to come to the un and bash the us stop paying the bill and get oit of the un

8 years 21 weeks ago
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Shining_brow:

Ah, well, you see - I think the US is the main problem there! They veto so many damn resolutions that the UN becomes ineffective, and then when the UN does have a resolution passed, the US just ignores it and does what it wants! Many of the recent US interventions (Iraq, Afghanistan, etc) specifically went against UN resolutions! And yet, when US's little buddy Israel does something bad, the US is right there to allow it to do what it wants. Again, UN resolutions vetoed by the US! (and, so many vetoed by just the US and Israel!)

 

So, I think the power of veto needs to be looked at... and probably removed! It's not ok for 157 nations to say 'yes', and have a resolution fail because only 2 say 'no'.

 

Once the UN has real military power (ie, put parts the US military under UN control), THEN the UN will have some teeth to make the world slightly better!

 

And, for this question... it wouldn't be China v US - it would be China v UN.

8 years 21 weeks ago
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8 years 21 weeks ago
 
Posts: 1095

Shifu

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The UN won't do anything because they are a bunch of politards and want Chinese money. Also since China and Russia are both permanent members they will veto any sanction against China.

Now I will tell you what will happen, and once again time will prove me right. China's actions are building a very strong anti-Chinese sentiment through Asia, as growth slows China will have less money to throw around and let's be honest money is the only reason why other countries put up with this crap.
When the cons outweigh the pros, China's neighbors will certainly blockade maritime routes from the Guo, when you look at the map China has no direct access to international waters, regardless of the UN's stance on that question, China will have 2 choices, withdraw or watch its economy take a nosedive.
The UN won't do anything or intervene in any case, too big to risk it.

ScotsAlan:

I have been reading up on this in detail today. The thing that amazes me is that the US is policing a law they have not actually ratified. 167 nations have ratified the UN law, but the US has not. Surely enforcement should be done by the signatories. UNCLOS. Its worth a bit of research.

8 years 21 weeks ago
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'Imagine two children on a beach. One has built a sandcastle. The other kicks it over. They get into a fight.'surprise

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-30/us-risks-sparking-war-china-warns

The problem is that the US has no choice but to "continue with these kinds of dangerous, provocative acts," because if it doesn't, The Philippines and other regional allies will lose all faith in Washington's supposed omnipotence and invincibility and while we imagine The White House secretly thinks this "is not the time for courage" (to borrow an epic Gartman-ism), courageous the US must now be lest Beijing and Moscow should swiftly banish US hegemony to the annals of history.

 

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/30/us-and-china-agree-to-coope...

 

From teleconference ..........

 

Matter is getting serious .....without UN.angel 

 

 

icnif77:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-javad-heydarian/philippines-vs-china-inte_b_8438988.html?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592

 

Since arbitration bodies under UNCLOS don't have a mandate to address sovereignty-related issues, the Philippines astutely repackaged its complaint as a maritime delimitation/entitlements issue. This legal acrobatic was nothing short of a stroke of genius -- crafted by a star-studded team of renowned international lawyers carefully assembled by the Philippine government.

 

 

reason, why China was absent/UN irrelevant.

8 years 21 weeks ago
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Shining_brow:

Not exactly.. China refuses to accept 3rd party negotiations (ie, arbitration) probably because it knows it would lose so bad! Their 'preference' has always been for the negotiations to be only between country A and China directly... and you can see why that doesn't work when China rants about other nations doing "illegal' things in "its" territory - there's clearly no way that 'negotiations' are going to work in anyone else's favour here!

 

Not to mention, China has a history of just ignoring agreements anyway!

 

Put simply - China doesn't play fair, and won't accept anything that could be considered 'fair'.

8 years 21 weeks ago
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icnif77:

Chinese play 'we're strong' card a lot here. Reefs, which are submitted aren't considered 'islands/territory' by International Law, despite the build-up.

It will be 'hairy', and it will end up with some kind of agreement (no winner) between China and West, IMO.

8 years 21 weeks ago
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8 years 21 weeks ago
 
Posts: 1845

Shifu

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China won't go too far because they know a naval war is something they would loose badly.

icnif77:

I'm not that sure about that. Ruski&China are banging pretty hard......

 

Maybe I should go off '0H' for awhile.....

8 years 21 weeks ago
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ScotsAlan:

I think its just swinging handbags lord H. America is defending trillion dollar trade routes.... From China. China wants to defend its own trades routes..from China... So both sides are competing to control Chinese trade routes...I wonder who has the upper hand. America is a key market for china. China needs to be able to export. But at the same time, America moved its manufacturing to china to take advantage of low cost production. Lol. If America blockades the south china sea, China will just stop exporting. Then their will be no trillion buck sea lanes to protect. And if China blocks exports, how on earth will the western economy earn money to pay off the bank bail out loans? China has the west over a barrel. If America sends a battle fleet to the south china sea to blockade china... Then America (and the world) will have no paper to wipe their arse with. Because its all made in china... The factories paid for by western greedy bankers. Without a doubt... China wins this one.

8 years 21 weeks ago
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Lord_hanson:

Not sure about that Alan, I think other South Asian countries win. Production is moving there already. Things like this will only encourage the movement of production to those coutries.

8 years 21 weeks ago
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Shining_brow:

Unless.... the US and the rest of the world wants to see some serious changes in Chinese government.

 

If China does XYZ for international trade and business (eg, changes to regulations etc), then the US will stop annoying China in the region.

 

Q: if one of the other antagonists in this fisticuffs decides "WTF - let's do something".. would the US retreat out of it? For example, if the Philippines decides they've had enough of China's crap, and shoots down a plane, or missiles a ship, would the US stand back and let those 2 go for it? Or would it honour its agreements with the Philippines, and help defend them?

8 years 21 weeks ago
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China's economy is starting to crumble war would give them the opportunity to blame others and make themselves out to be the victim.

icnif77:

Like elsewhere (US$) is that much better??

I'd say US is closer to start the conflict as pretense, 'cause economy is in crappola.....For sure, it's worst than Chinese economy, whoever understands their way of running the 'scam'.

 

8 years 21 weeks ago
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Answer of the DayMORE >>
A:  "... through ..."?  Only "through" comes to mind is "S
A: "... through ..."?  Only "through" comes to mind is "Shenzhen agent can connect you with an employer, who's authorized to hire waigouren ... and can sponsor Z visa." It's not like every 10th person you meet in Shenzhen's hood can sponsor work visa ...  The only way to change student visa to labourer one is just a regular way by: 1. Finding an employer, who'll apply for an Invitation letter; 2. Exit China and apply for Z visa in your home country's Chinese embassy; 3. Enter China in 30-days after Z visa was stamped into your travelling instrument ...As I am aware, you won't be able to switch to Working permit by remaining in China....,so make ready for a return to your home .... -- icnif77