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Q: What will China do if the Korean conflict escalates to total war again?

It's pretty obvious China doesn't want a totally unified Korea, because they'd be a big economic competitor, and the US doesn't want a full escalation because decades of "defense" makes them quite a pretty penny. In the event of total war, my estimation is that China will stay out of it at first, while talking down to the perceived aggressors, until North Korea inevitably starts losing and then it'll swoop in and seize some territory in "self defense". I don't think anyone will use nuclear weapons, because those are more of a deterrent than anything. If anyone did use them, I think it would be North Korea aiming them at Japan in a last-ditch effort to cause some damage to the "West" before their nation's total collapse.

What do you guys think?

4 years 33 weeks ago in  General  - China

 
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This will come to nothing.

A last minute agreement will take place, where Kim Jung Un will make an empty promise regarding the nukes, which will be disobeyed, and Obama will pucker up and kiss his behind as he gives "humanitarian aid".

Then, in a couple of months it will begin again....

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4 years 32 weeks ago
 
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I disagree with one thing you posted. I don't think China has any greed of North Korea's territory. Ugh instead China gave North Korea some territory when Mao was in charge, for the sake of "comrades friendship".

I think some senior military leaders want a buffer zone between the PLA in China and American troops in South Korea. I don't know how much useful the buffer zone can be, considering today's weapon technologies. However I do understand their concerns and maybe a buffer zone makes it a little bit safer. 

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4 years 33 weeks ago
 
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I don't think it will come to open warfare, I doubt even N. Korea are quite THAT stupid.

However if it does I sincerely hope America learns it's history lesson. If it comes to open war and America (and its allies) get too close to the Chinese border it is my opinion that just like in the last Korean war, China will intervene and that isn't a pleasant prospect.

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4 years 33 weeks ago
 
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America's air force in South Korea.

 

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4 years 33 weeks ago
 
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Apparently China has a plan in place to claim North Korea, should the current dynasty collapse (historical precedent, of course). Some reports also say that plan includes South Korea.

 

China cannot allow the two Koreas to unite, because then South Korea would inherit North Korea's nuclear weapons and technology.

 

Imagine China having nuclear weapons pointed at it from a united Korea, and so close to Beijing.

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4 years 33 weeks ago
 
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ok,,,  just a thought...  Pyongyang is a pain in the for most everyone. agreed ?   

 

Humans devise technology so it will be used.  agreed?

 

Humans have some sort of weird desire (I'm no psychologist) to see a Hydrogen/Fusion bomb used on a population center. agreed?

 

So. I suggest BJ nuke Pyongyang.   Tsar Bomba style.

 

Everybody wins.  :-)

 

DC happy

 

Seoul happy

 

Japan happy

 

BJ Happy

 

maybe folks in NK not so happy,,, but there is rarely an activity in human endeavors that does not include the winner/loser concept.

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4 years 33 weeks ago
 
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I have no idea but the message from NK gives the U.S. a convenient reason to send some hardware over and test it. Thanks, NK!

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4 years 33 weeks ago
 
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Here is a better question, why does China allow NK to exist?  All they'd really have to do is cut off NK's energy supplies and food deliveries and open up their boarders. The mass exodus that would cause could easily make the current regime to collapse into itself in the same way that the exodus following the fall of the Berlin Wall caused the collapse of the East German government. Then China could decide, without outside interference, whether or not they wanted a United Korea or to simply annex NK territory. 

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4 years 33 weeks ago
 
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If China cut off aid to NK you have then cornered a VERY angry animal.

 

The leadership of NK would know they've got nothing to lose, and in my opinion they would then attack, the USA if they possibly could or S. Korea if they cannot and we know they've got nuclear weapons, and, again in my opinion, are insane enough to use them on a first strike.

 

China should keep the food aid going in, and keep talking, and hopefully persuade the leadership to see some sense.

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4 years 33 weeks ago
 
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Hahaha I love this discussion. So many valid points. But in my ideal world, the best solution is if the Snake's head is cut off! No bombing, no harm done, no war. After all it is just one little child of a genocidal dictator's family with far too many dangerous toys. It is time to end this once and for all. And build up this country, ruled by businesses and education. Now there is a crazy dude who's always barking, one day he will bite as he got bored of barking. All the nations are anxious and worried about what this child is doing and it has been going on for far too long!

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4 years 32 weeks ago
 
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I don't think that a united Korea would be such a problem for anybody for many, many years. Do you realize how much time, money and politics would go into S. Korea "updating" N. Korea to S. Korea's current status? The only thing N. Korea has to give is Pyongyang, some low-class nukes, and a very, very hungry population. China probably isn't worrying it's polluted little head about that up-front problem.

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4 years 32 weeks ago
 
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I think (in reference to all the debate above) is that everyone is forgetting something vitally important... NK doesn't actually exist, except for some pretty colours and lines on a map.

 

When people refer to 'NK', they're really talking about a family and government - not about the people. And, like in China, the government there has successfully cowed their people into believing that they can't control their lives. Once that attitude changes, I think we'll see a vastly different NK.

 

Thus, I hypothesise that the final result will be... nothing! A lot of gesticulating, a lot of 'face' and all that crap, but in the end... nothing. Certainly not in the short term.

 

Also, as we're talking about the use of nukes in this discussion... are those in control of those nukes (ie, the low level military dudes at the installations) going to actually hit the button that they know will start WWIII?? Or, will there be a mutiny? After all, they're not getting well fed (or well paid), and their life probably totally sucks! When push comes to shove, will they actually do what that one family tells them?

 

So, I suspect an insurrection will happen fairly soon....

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4 years 32 weeks ago
 
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I hope this is all the media winding things up because if it's not then our generation could witness the end of the world.

 

In the build up to and during the Iraq conflict, Bush and Blair's governments all used the term WMD's.  

 

More recently nearly all websites, news channels and papers are using the term  "rhetoric"

 

If the North do attack the South or the others (Guam, Japan and so) then the US will respond along with it's allies.

Going by history the UK will get involved just cause they love a good fight, the French would surrender just in case and the Italians would see who is winning first then decide which side they are on. The Germans, well they would be too busy sunbathing with their towels on a beach somewhere. 

 

But this would certainly worry China.  China doesn't want the US to win against the North as this would put them closer to the border of China and probably if fighting broke out and the US won, the US would maintain a strong presence after the conflict in the North which China would believe is completely unacceptable.

 

Based on this China could never allow the US to gain a strong hold in the North and so close to it's border.  Recently, a number of analyst have seen a noticeable size force of the PRA dispatched to the border of NK.  Now, this could be for a number of reasons, such as preventing NK's trying to cross the border in an attempt to avoid the possible conflict.

 

  Think what you will.

 

But, I can't imagine a world where China would allow another Superpower and potential adversary so close to its territory.

 

China would have to step in. And that's a bad day for everyone.

 

Or, is NK taking the heat while Iran continue's their enrichment process unnoticed and out of the spotlight.  Seeing as it was NK and Russia who assisted the Iranians this could all be a ploy.

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4 years 32 weeks ago
 
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This will come to nothing.

A last minute agreement will take place, where Kim Jung Un will make an empty promise regarding the nukes, which will be disobeyed, and Obama will pucker up and kiss his behind as he gives "humanitarian aid".

Then, in a couple of months it will begin again....

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4 years 32 weeks ago
 
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There are a few on here calling on China to do whatever to "become a respected member of the community" and such statements. What I think you are missing, accidentally or deliberately is that China as a sovereign nation will do what is best for China (and rightly so imho), not what is best for the UN or USA.

 

So surely your question should be what is best for China and WHY?

Could it be that some of you are guilty of wishful thinking, N. Korea has repeatedly handed the USA and UN their diplomatic ass on a platter, this article from the BBC highlights that and makes some VERY interesting reading on the subject. I have copied some interesting excerpts from it.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22032246

 

"Even some US officials concede that Kim Jong-il played his hand with some skill.

The fear is that his son, Kim Jong-un, does not have the same touch or strategic grasp - and could provoke a conflict that no-one wants."

 

"Pyongyang's strategic goal is a deliverable arsenal of nuclear weapons which it believes will guarantee the regime's survival in a hostile world. It wants to force the United States to acknowledge it as an equal and fellow nuclear power."

 

"In 1994, it brought the small, crowded, heavily urbanised Korean peninsula close to a potentially cataclysmic war.

In the Spring of that year, the Clinton administration seriously considered air strikes on North Korea's small nuclear reactor at Yongbyon.

US military chiefs planned a massive reinforcement of American military forces in South Korea - a process that risked provoking the pre-emptive North Korean strike that it was designed to forestall.

After months of crisis, Washington finally agreed to direct talks with Pyongyang - a long term North Korean goal - and an agreement was reached that traded a nuclear freeze for economic aid diplomatic concessions.

It is debatable who blinked first. But two decades later, North Korea has a small and possibly growing stockpile of nuclear weapons - and the United States no longer contemplates going to war to stop it."

 

"President George W Bush accused him publicly of cheating on the nuclear freeze - by developing a separate uranium enrichment programme - and spoke of North Korea as part of an "axis of Evil" at a time when talk of regime change was much in the air in Washington.

North Korea scrapped the nuclear deal and threatened retribution and war.

But once again, the crisis ended in talks - this time with North Korea's neighbours at the table as well - including Russia and its principal backer, China.

While the talks dragged on inconclusively, North Korea built up its nuclear arsenal and missile technology."

 

I fear that the USA are aware of the limited effectiveness of their policies in the past and are hoping China will solve their problems for them. My opinion is that is a short-sighted and dangerous policy. As I said at the top of this post China will do what is best for China (as any sovereign nation should), and that may well NOT be what is best for USA / UN.

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4 years 32 weeks ago
 
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Highly unlikely that their will be a full-blown war unless some nervous trigger-happy field commander makes a mistake.  Even more unlikely that China would risk WWIII by trying to claim Korea.  I believe Korea will follow the same path as Germany and eventual reuinification will result. I believe it would happen at the end of the reign of the current DPRK leader so he can leave the greatest legacy in Korea's history.

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4 years 32 weeks ago
 
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Here is  an interesting little article for those who think we aren't still in an ideological cold war:   What an air war would look like over Korea.

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4 years 32 weeks ago
 
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china best interest is to arrange a military coup and put the older brother that is now living in china in power and diffuse the situation, the younger brother could have an accident any day now.

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4 years 32 weeks ago
 
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And here is an interesting little article for people that think that we are engaged in an ideological conflict with China.

 

http://news.yahoo.com/embassies-staying-put-north-korea-despite-tension-001315898--business.html

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4 years 32 weeks ago
 
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likely than happen, now more than ever...http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/28/politics/north-korea-launch-unidentified-projectile/index.html

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11 weeks 6 days ago
 
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What would china do? 

 

Do a duck dive immediately and disappear under the waves. For now, all it wants is money and with it develop and build more weapons, screw other countries economically through money laundering IPOs, jerking up their property prices to insane levels to squeese the living daylight out of their grass root and middle class.

 

This is why it is doing all sorts of things in the dark which probably include giving fatty military technology and material support, bribing leaders of developed countries to betray their country's interests.......

 

Hitler also stayed low until he had enough tanks.

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11 weeks 5 days ago
 
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I think they might restrict U.S passport holders for a time.

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11 weeks 5 days ago
 
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Total war. In that kind of war, Korea will NOT be in the picture. Europe, North America, India, China, Russia. Those will be the players. Kimmy will be nothing more than an aberration in contemporary history. Probably not even listed among the great killers in history. At the end of the war the Korean peninsula, and South East Asia, will simply be absorbed into China.

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11 weeks 2 days ago
 
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