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Q: When will China become the Worlds No.1 Superpower, and will they be better holders of the torch?
This ones dedicated to Fookinbilly
I truly don't think China will ever be the No1 superpower or even close to it.
I think economically it will happen around 2020, but a lot depends on the recession and how 'the west' climbs out of it and the knock on effects on China.
Militarily, I don't see that happening for a long time, as far as I can see, China doesn't have the interest in military action across the globe, locally yes, i.e the S. China sea and surrounding area, but I don't detect a desire for a military global reach.
I do genuinely think USA have been in decline now for at least 10 years, but as with the fall of Rome, I'm pretty sure the Romans were the last to notice they were in decline, and even worse is the fall of Rome was followed by a period called the Dark ages, if USA does fall I fear a similar course of history i.e. a technological reverse and international chaos.
For the Americans on here, that was NOT a criticism of your nation, just my honest opinion of what I believe is happening.
mattsm84:
As a historical note, I would say that the Romans would have been more aware than anyone of their decline than anyone. Remember that what set the Roman's apart from the invading Germanic tribes was the abundance of written records. In fact, the scarcity of written records is why historians call them the dark ages. This means that they were uniquely able to track trends across distances and through time, which means that they were likely the only ones aware that North African farms were producing less grain or that the frontiers of the Empire, which were in later eras governed by strong men like Bonifacius or Flavius Aetius, were once administrated by a central bureaucracy. Those are things that your most successful Germanic or Turkic warlord would be totally unaware of.
Hugh.G.Rection:
mattsm84,
I don't doubt that the leaders and record keepers had some awareness of the decline but I doubt even they knew how serious it was, however, when I said I doubted that the Romans knew, I meant the 'average' Roman citizen (and the slaves for that matter).
mattsm84:
So what your saying is one group of illiterate farmers was more poorly informed than another group of illiterate migratory hunters? There probably wasn't much of a difference, except that your average Vandal probably didn't even think of states as existing as we do, and his thoughts on geo-politics at the time was akin to "I guess we're walking south now."
They never will be and they would be horrible in that position.
China is extremely poorly run and the only thing it has going for it is cheap labour. The world envies nothing about it, therefore soft power is limited. In 2015 it will have a massive economic crash and then civil insurrection will become a problem.
Jnusb416:
"Holders of the torch" dedicated to Fookinbilly...reminds me of a good old friend of ours, who was a little obsessed with passing the torch.
I personally think China faces too many long term/short term threats to it's economy, political system, social system for it to be the "#1 superpower" within my lifetime.
Economically I think it could happen within the next decade but like others mentioned, China is facing some pretty big economic problems both in the short and long term and it depends how other countries do in the next decade as well. Keep in mind China's economy is still primarily based on export and cheap labor so it relies very heavily on outside sources for it's economy to boom.
China won't (one prays to some imaginary star person) ever become the world's sole superpower. It's economy, while massive, is too reliant on cheap labour (as others have said), making low value goods for export. Also, on the rise are India, Brazil, Russia and maybe even a new model EU. All of these will ensure a multi-polar world, and one much fairer for all (I know that's a lie, but dreaming's okay).
Also, the Latino population of America is now the majority. I think within the coming decade we'll start seeing huge changes in American politics and policy for no other reason than America itself will become more representative of all its peoples and they will start demanding to see that on Capitol Hill. Hope so.
mattsm84:
I was with you until the second paragraph. Here's the US census data:
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html
63% of the country are non-hispanic whites. Even as this number decreases, they'll still maintain a plurality for the next few decades. You'll still see a political shift left ward on the national level, but its as much a result of an increase in education, college educated people--even the politically apathetic ones--tend to be left aligned in the US politically speaking, as it is a shift in racial make up. One the other hand, the state offices, and at least a large portion of our congress, are probably going to remain republican as they just do better on the state and local level due to a dedicated base. This is a blessing and a curse as it hampers their ability to attract moderates and undecides.
The simple answer is not in our life time.
Here is the longer answer. Economically speaking China may never rise to over 15% to 16% of the world's GDP. There are several reasons for this. China's financial institutions lack the sort of transparency to truly be considered stable. Remember that what actually began the debt crisis in Greece was that the Greek government and the EU didn't actually know how much debt Greece was carrying. As a point of comparison it's entirely possible that China's debt problem, as Moody's suspects, is actually worse than Portugal's and may be as high as Greece's. But while the books of western economies are more or less open, the actual numbers that make up the Chinese economy are known the select few people that occupy the point where the line between government and business becomes blurred, who are the people with the greatest incentive to misrepresent those numbers. We won't know what those numbers actually are until it becomes clear how greatly Chinese Bank's are over leveraged. At that point, it will be too late.
But even if China's bank's were sound there is a ceiling to exactly how large China's economy can grow through manufacturing and exporting goods to Japan and the west. Even if those economies continue to slide, at some point China slides with them so it can hope to become the larger economy by the force of another countries recession. It has to out pace their rate of growth, as it did to Japan. The problem with that is eventually its middle class will grow to a point where China will have to re-appraise the value of its currency. That will cause the cost of producing goods in China will rise, and China will lose it relative advantage in manufacturing. This process has already begun. Earlier this year the Hackett Group released of poll of American and European executives showing that 46% percent of them were at least considering leaving China. Now consider the glut of Japanese companies that have fled China this fall.
But even if its bank's and and manufacturing sectors were solid China is still decades, maybe even centuries away from becoming a power house in terms of innovation. The total lack of respect for intellectual property, a business environment that encourages patents filed on hardware over new software, and that places a higher value on units produced than it does on quality.
But what I've written isn't even the worst of it. No, the absolute worst part is that many people both outside of China and in China's government believe that China has to keep growing. And has to keep growing at a rate that exceeds 8% or it risks large scale social upheaval. That there is no way that they're going to be able to do this all but assures that China is a ticking time bomb. The question then becomes not whether or not China will be a world leader by 2050, but when, not if, it will eventually fall apart.
snowballeffect:
Have you ever lived in the real China, your comments re the middle class in my opinion (being very close to the real china) are totally unfounded.
I've lived here off and on for over a year in the last 5 years. I live in a small to medium size city. I regularly meet people of all social status and I'm yet to meet 1 person who isn't 100% supportive of China's growth and global rise (dont believe everything you see on CNN or BBC - if something has hapenned then it is a v v v v small minority - this is not LIbya or Egypt and our countries canNOT (yes that is a very big not) control this!!!!!. Re innovation, give it 10 years and I think you might be eating your words. Anyhow, as far as I'm aware, it was only after WW2, when we asked the Americans to save us from the Nazis that the US took off. The only reason you helped us is because we paid for it using our innovative Scientific secrets (wiki it if you don't already know - I guess you could call that innovation of a sort :) ) and at the same time please feel free to answer my latest question - have a look!!!
Oh, and I think China isn't anywhere near as leveraged as the holyland (US), or the UK? I don't think they are as stupid as us.
Hugh.G.Rection:
Those words ref Chinese debt are astoundingly wrong, they are probably as wrong as it's possible to be!
Even according to the most paranoid American banker China owns upwards of $5 trillion of US bonds and blue chip shares, and have a cash surplus around the $10trillion mark, (admittedly that is decreasing of late), are you trying to say all of that was done with borrowed money? Because if you were how insanely incompetent would that make the US treasury?
snowballeffect:
Thanks for the backup Huge, I just don' think what he's saying rings true.
mattsm84:
Actually, it's been living here that's convinced me of China's impending collapse. How else can you square the fact that China prints currency to artificially keep the value of its currency low, builds subdivisions that nobody lives in, and knocks down and rebuilds the same apartment buildings every five years just to keep people employed with China's complete inability to collect what it should in taxes? Simply put a greater portion of this than they are letting on is being done with borrowed money, their books probably are cooked. And I'm not the only one who thinks so. You can disagree with me on this, but then you'd have to take it up with Moody's. Eventually China is going to hit a point where it can't grow out of it. And that's sooner rather than later. I don't want to be true, but given what I know about China after having lived here, and my understanding of economics and finance it probably is. By comparison, the US is on much firmer ground, even after the housing bubble burst.
snowballeffect:
Knock down and rebuild every 5 years.....the only thing I've seen in the last 5 years here is very rapid development on an unbelievable scale, not wasted development!! Thanks for your 'analysis' but simply cliaming lack of transparency as a reason why China is doomed is a preetty weak appraisal.
mattsm84:
But that's not what I'm doing. I'm saying that their housing bubble is getting ready to burst as their GDP rate is beginning to decline. What do you think happens to a country with a shrinking economic growth rate and a rising NPL ratio? A lack of transparency just means that we won't see many of the warning signs until its to late to avoid a hard landing.
Hugh.G.Rection:
A shrinking rate of growth, but it is still growing and at 7.5% at a quicker rate than almost any nation on Earth, therefore the Chinese GDP is growing not shrinking.
xinyuren:
@ Hugh - wha??? 5,4,3,2,1... is that shrinking or growing?
ah! semantics. What he means is the growth rate is shrinking. It is an alarming trend that sees no change in the future. China's growth will normalize and finally start to truly shrink unless they reinvent their economy.mattsm84:
I suppose I should have stated what I meant more clearly. Anyway, having a 7.5% growth rate, which is the fasted in the world, still may not be enough China. Many people inside China's government and the majority of outside observers believe that China must maintain a growth rate that exceeds 8% or it risks social instability. And that's if we believe the 7.5% number. Many people in the economic community take issue with the way that China calculates its growth rate.
Being a "Superpower" takes more than economic clout. As of today, there is only one Superpower: The United States. This is my opinion, of course, but a Superpower also needs to have military superiority, technological superiority, and a worldwide presence. Beijing is a long way off from all of those marks. They only just completed their first aircraft carrier! They copy or steal technology from others. And their worldview is restricted to trade and humanitarian efforts. Their people are barely aware of the world outside Asia. A world power? yes. A Superpower? That's just a dream.
snowballeffect:
You guys definetly have worldwide presence. You're waging war or sticking your nose in all over the world. Us Brits aren't far behind you on both counts!!!!
xinyuren:
I consider Britian to be partners with the USA in the holder of the Superpower torch. and you are right, snowball. United States sticks their nose in everything. Their top foreign policy objective is to "maintain primacy". This means they want to protect their status as the only World Power. That takes a lot of work (and consequently wars). I won't even go into the fact that being a Superpower means playing big brother to other nations (for a price of course). BTW, I am American, but I'm not politically bent. Those are just the facts.
nevermind:
The US has also stopped alot of suffering around the world, as has the UK. But that, as all good deeds, are forgetten.
snowballeffect:
No British person on here would deny that some of our foreign policies are and have been flawed. The problem as I see it is that some other people on here are quick to point fingers at China, when they really need to "hold a mirror up".
crimochina:
"hold a mirror" hmmmmmmmm snowball, this site is called echinacities.com do you understand english?
Ha ha Ha ha Ha ha Ha ha Ha ha Ha ha Ha ha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It's highly unlikely. Most experts already say China will get old before it gets rich and the economy is stagnating much like Japan's. A strong military is built upon a strong economy so while China may be buying new military hardware now, there's no telling if the future economy will allow for double-digit budget growth every year.
And lastly, as a cultural superpower, China stands little chance. Most of it's popculture is regurgitated from western sources already and there seems to be very little that foreign cultures would be willing to pick up. Just callin it like I sees it.
AdamE:
Very true about a cultural superpower. I read some good articles about how most big countries in the world have brand names that everyone across the world knows about. Yet as big as China has become it doesn't have any popular Chinese brand you will see people in other countries lining up for.
There's that big sports/clothing/shoe company in China that just signed Dwayne Wade to a show contract. I guess that's a start, but let's see if people in other countries like America have any interest in buying a Chinese brand basketball show over say Nike/Jordan/Adidas/etc etc just because of one NBA player.
Music/Movies/TV seems to be the same. What Chinese TV shows are popular in other countries. How about singers, I can't think of any popular Chinese singers that the rest of the world really knows about . Faye Wang is somewhat known in other countries but mostly by Chinese people. Meanwhile you walk around in China and see foreign dvds everywhere, foreign music blarring through speakers....heck nearly everyday I see someones ringtone on their phone go off and it's a foreign song in English even though the person has no idea what the song is saying.
Is this the new wu mao?
nevermind:
We call him "C*ntface" It's always nice to get a nickname on your first day. :)
thedude:
The jury is still out on that one. You missed the British Invasion!!
mArtiAn:
I'm not aware of one single solitary person on this site that I would consider to be a wumao. If there is one they're doing a piss-poor job of it.
MissA:
This place has degenerated significantly since you were here, Hugs. At least Matty's gone.
i am a nobody. i know nothing here in china. but the people who do know, gov officials business execs they are packing up and leaving or sending their children out. what is it they know, that we don't know???
AdamE:
Forget what magazine it was but I read a magazine article awhile back where they interviewed some pretty famous/wealthy execs in China who were leaving China. Of course they didn't use their real names for safety reasons but the general reasoning were simply that they wanted more freedom. Especially the freedom to share their views and opinions more openly.
I don't know any government officials or anything like that but wealthy people in China that I've seen leave or send their kids abroad all seem to do it for the same reason. They just feel the overall environment is better, especially for raising a child.
I think that they are already No.1..it is another matter they have not tested their capability yet.Not a Single country can challenge them. Even U.S.A cannot challenge China on any front..strategically or economically..Long Live China..You are hidden No.One..
LAR:
You've GOT to be kidding!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :)
LAR:
You're a ******* M****!! ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!!!! * YOU ought to be ashamed of yourself for talking such GARBAGE!!!!!!!! :( The Chinese government/gestapo has INFLICTED MUCH BRUTALITY ON ITS CITIZENRY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :( ARE YOU PROUD OF THAT?! :(
They are already the King of Scams. Why would we want them to get any more brazen than what they already are? I think we have enough corruption in the world and maybe the world would be better without a Super Power?
The average U.S. worker produces $63,885 of wealth per year, more than their counterparts in all other countries. Ireland comes in second at $55,986, followed by Luxembourg at $55,641, Belgium at $55,235 and France at $54,609. Whereas a Chinese industrial worker produces $12,642 worth of output. A laborer in the farm and fisheries sector contributes a paltry $910 to gross domestic product. The difference is much less pronounced in the United States, where a manufacturing employee produced an unprecedented $104,606 of value. An American farm laborer, meanwhile, created $52,585 worth of output. So basically the math tells us that it requires five to nine Chinese workers to produce the equivalent production as most western nations.
China's strength is based on economy alone, and it's economy is almost totally reliant on foreign investment and foreign export. By throwing temper tantrums all the time, it risks losing that foreign support.
Japanese companies are cutting Chinese production, and increasing relocation to other countries. Other western companies, fearing the same retribution from China at some time in the future, are doing the same. Without them, China's only power base, it's economy, will collapse.
An article by London School of Economic's Professor Arne Westad, entitled "China must learn that size only gets you so far", gives a good rebuttal to China's mistaken belief that size counts for everything.
I think China could be the number one exporter of women. If they do this correctly, the woman could control all the men that control everything, Then China could control everything.
I forget what its called but large politcal supporters in the US don't have to be named, so China could support a president and there by rule the US.
I doubt that China could be a super power in this century.
crimochina:
i believe foreign men should be allowed to sponsor 3 chinese women every 5 years. without the hassle of marriage.
who is with me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111
TedDBayer:
Yes I want my own private massage parlour. I want to get a religion that allows mulitple wives. I can't believe that it is not legal to have as many as you want, it is consenting adults, freedom of choice. I'd like to see being allowed to take a wife home period. Not waiting for a dam visa. Anyone I've met at home with a Chinese wife has waited 3 years to get the wife home. They feel the process in place to make you give up. And you have to prove it is a real marriage and it will last. Like who cares if I get married tomorrow morning to someone I just met tonight at home. I couldn't get a visa for my girl friend to even visit. I put togther a 2 inch thick application and offered my house and savings as collateral. No cigar.
LAR:
"and thereby rule the U.S." Ha ha ha lol lol lol lmao!!!!!!!!!!!
gdp total is not the same as gdp per person, china has a long way to go.
