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Q: Will China Ever Become a Democracy?
What does the future look like for the CCP? Do you think it will have become a democracy? I don't think it will ever look like democracies in the West, perhaps it'll be a 'democracy with Chinese characteristics'. But what do you think those characteristics will be?
I think China won't have democracy for long time, and why would they need it? Their system also works, maybe better than the "democracy" in west.
wont work.
people too stupid to vote
Scandinavian:
true, but with proper reform of the education system you can overcome this problem
Sadly democracy isn't a trigger you can activate whenever you feel like, it's a reasonning, which first step would be to consider the population as citizens enjoying ideally the same amount of rights and duties.
There, we're not even started and already we hit two major obstacles.
Then we can talk about having some degree of freedom (of speech, opinion), which is useful so people can make choices, as opposed to absorbing slogans. Here, another obstacle.
We can go on like that for a while. Point is, if you were to suddenly dump by tomorrow a choice to their president or even local representatives, it would either be a joke rigged under the hood or a ridiculous contest between the wealthy because votes would be put for sale for a quick buck on Groupon (I'd love to see the agenda and the promotion though).
As long as we're discussing democracy for China, let's throw in the 3T's, recommended VPNs, Falungong, pollution, freedom, corruption, etc. and then really draw attention to ourselves. Ooops.
I think so. One day.
There are chinks in Big Brother's armor already. We see it all the time in the media (both Chinese and foreign) when BB flip-flops and rectifies a party-line position in reaction to public outcry denouncing one injustice or another, however big or small. Thank the Internet and microblogs for that.
Seems like, despite the opacity of the power-brokering and cabalistic one-sided decision-making behind closed doors down at Ye Olde Politboro Pub, there is some light shining in.
That light is the youth of China who are far more irreverent, robust of opinion, individualistic and aware of the current social, political and environmental ills affecting their homeland than their progenitors are and were.
I have high hopes for the Chinese kids that take on and challenge the status quo. Many manage to Go West to further their education and enlightenment, as it were. They are champing at the bit for change. They despise the milk and food scandals, the corruption, the air, soil and water pollution, the rotten social manners, fill in the blank _________, etc. AND they are not afraid to speak out, voicing their discontent.
Right now, I look at BB and see a clumsy giant that is bumbling along, stumbling at every other turn in the road as more and more citizens demand civil, social and human rights that are so common elsewhere in the developed world.
If BB were smart, they'd open it up before they are forced to do so.
I've met some pretty switched-on Chinese kids with brains and NO FEAR. These are the future leaders of this country. Jiao kids!
TMaster:
"That light is the youth of China who are far more irreverent, robust of opinion, individualistic and aware of the current social."
Seriously? Individualistic sure, but robust of opinion? About what, their next telephone? If they're really as smart as you say, they'll just do what smart Chinese have done since forever and will keep doing for a long time : get a life abroad.
Red_Fox:
TM: I had dinner recently with a young Chinese woman and her parents. Yes, her phone was important to her, but you should have heard her express her ideas - at the dinner table - about corruption scandals that have rocked certain provincial governments and have brought down many a tall poppy in the recent past. She also went on about the melamine-milk tragedy of a few years back. Her parents sat at the table and did not stop her expressing her opinions. The young woman wants to be an environmental scientist so she can contribute, one day, to the betterment of her country. She was on fire, bro. And her parents just sat there, heads bowed. Moments later, her father, a high-level businessman with gov't contracts - whispered in my ear: "There are certain things I cannot talk about in public for fear of reprisal. But my daughter..." I listened and observed entranced by the difference in spirit between the two.
And I have met other young people who are not afraid to have an opinion that was not drilled into them by some propaganda machine. They figured it out for themselves.
Give the new generations a little more credit and space. I believe they'll get it right. Cheers!
Vyborg:
Red Fox, thanks for sharing some optimism with us. On my GCD's I'm inclined to agree with you. The younger people here are more aware of what's going on both in China and abroad and how some things compare. An increasing amount is able to speak up as well. Whether this will lead China to democracy, I don't know, but it will almost certainly cause many improvements in organizational and environmental issues.
Sitting on a bus that drove into the crowd crossing the road, I saw two girls, maybe ten years old, jumping aside and then slamming the side of the bus with their bare hands looking angry. They obviously didn't agree. The textbooks at school probably teach them otherwise. I loved them for it, but the other people on the bus felt their age was the excuse for their behavior.
In general, the frustration seems to get the better of the people more and more often and one can hope that more and better information helps them to unlearn their habits of self-suppression. And I have to say it seems that most of this information comes from abroad in some way or another.
On my BCD's....
The chief characteristic of Chinese-style Democracy will be that people don't vote.
See Hong Kong. The agreement signed during its handover stated that Hong Kong would institute universal suffrage (the right to vote) and maintain a "high degree of political autonomy". The Beijing government has interpreted that as meaning "Beijing will choose the leader of Hong Kong, and Hong Kong people can get fucked." In response to people even mentioning the word "Democracy", Beijing has begun systematically stripping Hong Kong of constitutional law and everything that makes it democratic or autonomous.
As to the future of the CCP: I don't think it will last another 30 years.
Obviously that's a big call, and can't be stated with any degree of certainty. There are just so many factors which, in the next decade or two, could suddenly trigger large-scale social upheaval. Most notably: hostilities with neighbouring countries (which China now can't back down from); the potential collapse of the housing market; and the local government debt crisis (which is in the trillions).
Under Xi Jinping's rule, the CCP has been ramping up its military image (and making a lot of speeches about "reversing past humiliations"), massively expanding its xenophobic media campaigns (to promote animosity towards America, Japan and other nearby countries), and invading foreign territories under the pretext of "sovereignty".
Xi is now "riding the tiger". He's harnessed a lot of power, but can't get off without being eaten. Having declared that China owns everything, and that China is prepared to use its military power to get it, he now can't back down without a catastrophic public backlash.
It's unlikely China will get everything it wants, but Xi has already convinced the public that anything less will be a national outrage.
The CCP has also relied, for decades, on China's swift economic development as its sole indicator of success. Now that China's economy is slowing down, and other countries are becoming increasingly wary of China's unethical practices, the CCP is scrambling for ways to justify their power and the atrocious condition they have left the country in.
I think every General Secretary of China (starting from Xi) has to be wondering if they will be the last one.
Even after a great upheaval ends Communist Party rule, however, there is no reason to assume things will get better. Imagine a Chinese person achieving control of the nation, then deciding to do something good for everyone, rather than just protecting their own power and taking everything they can. YEAH RIGHT.
It is so far away. Imagine the mayhem if Beijing said. "At the end of the current governments term we have election for government"
Forming of parties. Little Emperor Syndrome will mean "I want to be party chief" so there will be a million 1 man parties
The actual election. Would anyone try to cheat ? Probably less than 100% would.! It certainly would be possible for those who've benefited from stealing money in the past, to go to a rural area and ask all the ones with the least education to vote, how much would a vote cost, 100RMB? I think those specific group of people would be very unlikely to believe democracy would mean they would get proper rights.
Forming government after election, what could possibly go wrong in this step?
If a government is formed, how long would it stand?
Democracy itself isn't the issue here in China ~ it's what comes with it, e.g. free speech, human rights, voting powers (meaning you really have a choice of Leadership) accountabilty/responsibility by Govt., checkable power retraints e.g. independant Mass Media, just Legal System etc etc. IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN HERE IN OUR LIFE- TIME! If ever, thats the main reason they are all going overseas,& importantly, NOT RETURNING the Chinese realise this fact of life. So, the ones left behind, being either brain dead or brainwashed wil be the future 'leaders'. My prediction..
Anyone who has taken the time to talk to the younger Chinese generation who are more open-minded already know that Red_Fox is 100% correct. However, it will take a long time to happen. Not all youth think the same.
