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Q: The biggest threat to social stability in China?
Gender gap or wealth gap? Else?
There was a long thread on this recently.
But I will have a go. Social stability really just comes down to money. China is following an untried economic policy, and it seems to be working very well. Western capitalist systems are on their way down while China is on it's way up.
Yeah, we see the news that China's growth is going down, but it's still healthy. Western press makes out it's all doom and gloom here, but in reality growth is being stabilized by policy, and of course lower western demand for product.
In the meantime western nations are struggling to keep their service based economies out of the red.... because they shipped all their manufacturing out here.
It will be interesting to see how it all pans out. The democratic system with it's need for short term voter satisfaction, or the Chinese technocrat system where clever people are sitting in a room trying to figure out what happens next.
I predict social instability elsewhere before it happens here.
See here: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30615452
There was another story about senior MPs in the UK predicting unrest next year unless employment and wealth issues are addressed. But I can't find it.
DrMonkey:
"It's working very well". The diao si army might have a different opinion. Or the countryside folks. It works because people are sheepish, poorly informed, poorly educated. It's easy to be cheap when you don't try to be egalitarian, you can force your decisions, and you decide all the compromise in a very small committee. Compromises about environment versus production prices, workers rights versus production prices. Things like a civil society are explicitly fought as a danger : of course, the whole thing would stop working if we start to care about people and share power ! You claim your socialism, and then you make the eulogy of an authoritarian oligarchy...
ScotsAlan:
Fair point Dr M.
I am a socialist, and China has certainly opened my ideas to how different systems of Governance define it.
I still say China has a plan. Things will change when the time is right.
DrMonkey:
Things might change, if people have some responsibility and duties in the public space : those things takes time to learn, step by step. So far, those who *dared* to do such steps, have been thrown in jail after very discrete courts (ie. the New Citizen Movement being the lastest instance of this).
The CCP justify itself with "Chinese people can't make decision for themselves for now, so we have to be authoritarian", and at the same time, any timid attempt to foster a civil society is crushed. So yeah, if every time people start to learn to be responsible, and care about public life, they are suppressed, indeed, people can't make decision for themselves.
"I have to authoritarian until you stop picking your nose", and I put in jail anybody educating people so they stop picking their nose. "See, I have no choice !". Yes, there's a plan, indeed.
I'm going to say a collapse of the housing market. Most wealth of Chinese is tied up in the housing market and any meaningful downturn would be a disaster for the finances of the typical Chinese family. It's not just a money issue - sure, losing 30% of one's net worth in a housing crash would hurt. But the sense of security in Chinese society is tied to home ownership. If house prices falter, people's sense of security will decrease too and that could lead to serious social unrest.
ScotsAlan:
That was my first thought too. I wrote it but deleted it from my answer above.
I think the Government will do all they can to prevent it. It will slow down, but I don't think it will die.
Cold water and not picking up a call.
Seriously, gender gap no way. It's going to be one more gross phenomenon going in the dark and hurting the poor, quietly. It's already happening anyway. Same thing for generation gap. Healthcare and retirement are for civilized society who think non productive people are still people.
Wealth gap? Maybe. But I still don't see anyone with a conscience of anything, let alone a courage for anything. I suspect the power of delusion here makes it so that people could be stacked up, left with nothing in a sterile land and somehow you could still make them believe they're living the dream.
The rise of the thinker. I know several young people who have been blessed with the gift of lateral thought. And surely the ones I know aren't the only ones.
If a bunch of these types were to get together and pool their thoughts then the buggers in Beijing had better watch out.
From little things big things grow......
DrMonkey:
Those people raise naturally, and they do gather, with sensible messages, revendications and careful actions. The latest batch (the New Citizen Movement) end-up in jail about a year ago. During the very discrete judgment, they were charged with troubling the harmony and plotting against the state : they organized *something* with a political meaning outside the party, a grave crime.
DrMonkey:
Completely by chance, I found this during my morning coffee & reading session
http://www.chinafile.com/how-deal-chinese-police
xinyuren:
@Dr - That was a very interesting read. It ended with a sentiment that I sometimes share. In the absence of competent leadership, at least democracy gives us a degree of freedom and positive state of mind. Socialism, though more efficient, can only work in lieu with competent leadership. There never has and never will be competent human leadership, so democracy is the best of the worst. This is implicitly acknowledged in common, everyday language as the article submitted.
royceH:
Thanks for that link, Dr M.
Do they have a regular newsletter, or similar, that can be subscribed to? I couldn't see a link....
Corruption, combined with poor economic prospects and poor enforcement of sovereignty. Think about the end of pretty much any dynasty.
Corruption is here, but it's being addressed, at least as a way to remove some elements. The root cause of corruption are not addressed, but it does not matter : spectacular arrest shall not stop, we need super heroes and super villains !
Economic prospects are on the down slope, but there's a long way before massive unemployment and one half of the population without any chance of progress. When manufacturing will be moved elsewhere or automated, when the ongoing industrial revolution will be further on, it might become a problem. China's education system makes the country very ill prepared to this kind of changes.
Sovereignty challenges... There's no challengers. I don't think a few inhabitable rocks are a challenge, they are a convenience.
I think gender gap cause it creates this whole class of people who have nothing to lose to a greater extent than usual.
I think a contributing factor that has not been addressed is the increasing number of people who study abroad. Also you can see from any Chinese Internet forum that people are waking up to the bs that we take for granted.
Quite obviously - Google, and in particular, Gmail!
Japan, the US and Taiwan... if any (or all) of those decide they've had enough of the Chinese government's BS, and respond appropriately, and war comes, China would have its arse handed to it on a plate (presuming the US actually honours its agreements!!!). After having said arse handed back to it, the country would collapse - and a new regime would take over. People would be lost, and angry.. and the RMB would be worth nothing. The feelings of humiliation would be palpable, and they'd probably kick every foreigner (and company) out of the country... and it would go back to the dark ages (again).
Fortunately, this state of affairs wouldn't last too long... the question would then be - how would China come back - bigger badder and meaner? or more enlightened??
I think you all have it wrong. The greatest single threat to social stability is the deterioration of the CCP. Xi knows this. If the CCP falls, China falls. There will be no rising democracy from the ashes, at least not for quite a long time. The CCP, like them or hate them, holds China together. There is a growing resentment against government in China, but there is an even stronger drum pounding in their hearts: She is our mother. They really believe this. It's been drilled into them since grade school. And the Chinese people could not survive without their mother.
Stiggs:
You might be onto something there. Whether you agree with how they do it or not, it's hard to argue with results. And they have definitely shown some pretty impressive results with the economy and bringing people out of poverty.
If there was a revolution tomorrow I think it would be a disaster for the Chinese people.
laowaigentleman:
@xin
Do you think it is possible that if Xi really wanted to, he could transition China into a democracy?
Firstly, he could allow provinces more autonomy before allowing for press freedoms implemented slowly followed by making the judiciary independent of the party and other branches of the government.
There wouldn't have to be any national level democracy for at least a generation this way, so none of the actors in this scenario would lose their meal ticket, as it were.
It wouldn't be the "taking the lid off the whole system" that Gorbachev did, surely?
xinyuren:
@laowai - certainly possible, but it would be a very long game and possibly not worth the trouble. Democracy doesn't hold much more promise than the current system. The safest bet is to hold the status quo and develop what you have. He knows the sad fact that every seasoned politician knows: All the systems are crap. Citizens love to promote their favored brand of government, but the people who work in day to day politics know that it makes no real difference. There is no panacea. They all suck. So there is no real value in changing systems for Xi, but plenty of risk.
The housing market and too many damn vehicles in poorly planned cities. Too many traffic jams, fights over parking spaces... people driving like looneys and taking out families.
Leading cause of death in China right now is automobiles.
Eorthisio:
Poorly planned cities... you mean like in my district where the local government decided recently to put fences and concrete bumpers on the center of the main avenue from one end to another with not even a single place where to make a u-turn nor any roundabout. Means if I arrive from the east I must drive all the way to the end of the district (1,3km) then do a u-turn near a primary school then come back west half way to reach my residence.
Or cutting cities with large highway with nowhere to cross for up to 2km for pedestrians. Or as you said the lack of parking spaces, or idiots stealing yours (that you rent).
China wants to promote personal vehicles but the local governments don't do much to make it agreeable to drive here. Despite the money hole that's infrastructure building most are insufficient, meanwhile there are empty roads in newly built empty districts where no one wants to live and will ever want because they are too far from the main districts.
Robk:
Yup, that would do it.
Or how about performing construction on every road off a cross intersection without any warning signs so no matter which way you go... (all three ways) you end up having to turn back around and take the road came after trying two others.
If Einstein was right that humans only use 10% of our brains... then most mainlanders only use like 1%. I swear lol.
DrMonkey:
@Robk The 10% brain usage thing is completely debunked., and the attribution to Einstein is a myth too
Robk:
@Dr Monkey - Yeah I know... I just wanted to put things into perspective haha.
By 2042 30% of its population will be over 60 years old. Let that sink in for a moment.
DrMonkey:
Japan, Korea and many Western nations are going the same way, with the baby boom going papy boom. China does not embarrass itself with puny welfare and healthcare for all.
mattsm84:
As bad as that gets, the median age is still going to remain in the mid 30s. For China, its going to be in the high 40s because the One Child Policy has created a generational bottleneck. Whats more they are still going to have to plunk down ridiculous amounts of $ into infrastructure.
DrMonkey:
You are assuming that the Chinese state feels responsible for the well-being of its elder citizens. The state won't spent much into infrastructure to accommodate the elders. It will be left to Chinese families : you are rich, fine, you are poor, screwed. Look how it's done with health care, education pollution, etc. It's mostly left for every citizen to fend for themselves. This way, the state stay powerful while saving itself from troubles and debts, and the people are way too busy dealing with their own lives to rock the boat.
