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Q: Do you think US wants to hold back China?
The Philippines worry about china's offensiveness in South Sea.Philippine hopes that US can send troops to protect them from China. Meanwhile, US worry about China's rise. Therefore, two countries start to hold 'strategy of defense conversation'. Do you think US wil help to fortify them against China?
The US will sit back and watch and step in if China starts bullying the Philippines. Obama is a vastly different president than the warmonger before him.
Blah, I'd like to commend you on your drastic improvement of the English langauge, your spelling skills and your remarkable vocabulary in just... 3 hours. Congrats.
beaufortninja:
Obama is exactly the same as Bush. That's why he went to war in Yemen, Libya, Uganda, and soon to be Syria, Lebanon, and Iran. But anywhoo...
981977405:
Exactly...Obama is a copy of Bush, perhaps even more to the right than Bush. Obama, as a BLACK president, has virtually abandoned the black people of the United States. He has done absolutely nothing for them. He's a Jim Crow -- a white man's black man. As for all of those wars, yes, indeed. The American people wrongly believed, or at least some of them that they had elected a man of peace and instead they inherited a warmonger.
HugAPanda:
981.. you have absolutely no credibility and therefore your opinion that I am sure you have "borrowed" from another site means absolutely nothing.
nevermind:
To say Obama is "more right than bush" is possibly the stupidest thing I've heard on this board yet.
Of course the US wants to do what it can to limit China's expansion. This is a small world and there's no room for 2 superpowers. Remember how it worked out last time? 40 years of proxy wars.
Shining_brow:
Thumbs up - cos it's close to being exactly right, and shouldn't be compressed! Not agreeing with the mentality of it, but it's pretty accurate...
FOREIGNER MAN HARM CHINA
Five thousand year ago, all Chinese man all have ten gold-plated ferraris. All foreigner man all live in tree. But foreigner man so jealous five thousand year history, steal all ferrari, make China so poor. Harm China.
China no never hurt anybody! We are friendly friend to all world. Why America harm China?
HappyExPat:
KCHUR: You got it all wrong. First, bet you 90 % of USA population only knows about China is that if yyou dig a hole on the ground deep enough, you come out in China. And second, the way to do is to take our foreign aid grants and then vote or do as please at UN. Or declare war to USA, and surrender at the site of the first airplane, then you will get tons of money to "rebuild", as many have found out. Who gives a shit about 10 gold plated Ferraris, when you had 5000 + to get where you are, and we did it, and surpassed you, in less than 300 ?.
The West is in decline for sure. There are many socio-economic reasons for this, most of them too complex to be adequately handled here.
America now has a hollowed-out, service-based economy. American capitalists make money off the backs of the American workers and send the real jobs overseas. It is pure, unadulterated greed -- the 1% thing is so true. The Republicans only pant and pant as they can hardly wait to dismantle the safety net that FDR put in place soon 70 years ago, after the 1929 Crash that Republic politics brought out.
China is definitely ascending.
blah.... what you are talking about is international politics, which is something very complex with a lot of players involved.
The reason why kchur makes fun of your line of thinking is because its deserved. We hear this pissing and moaning from dim-witted high school students all the way up through newcasters that everyone is out to get china. The US is not the boogeyman nor is it china's scapegoat for not getting what it wants.
blah:
I did not want to talk about international politics in acdemic way.I read some news from other sites like sina.com as I browse this site. I refine an question from the news. I am just curious of how westerners think. Maybe I should write some background information about this news, it is better.
If the US wanted to hold back China it wouldn't have allowed its companies to relocate to China to manufacture. It wouldn't have sent China aid money, it wouldn't allow Chinese to take spots in US universities....etc.
Man, I love this argument.
Here is the simple truth: China makes most of it's money manufacturing cheap ass goods primarily for the US. The US STILL manufactures a lot of goods, but mostly hi-tech goods.
Amazingly, the growth rocket you've been seeing in China has mostly been driven by exports to the US. The US, in a financial crisis right now (nowhere close to the Eurozone, btw) is A.) not buying as much stuff from China (and neither is Europe) and B.) China is quickly becoming NOT THE CHEAP PLACE TO MAKE STUFF.
China's growth rate has already dropped to around 8% (they needed to maintain a 10%+ rate to "overtake" the US by 2020) so all of those "projections" are actually meaningless because STUFF CHANGES. Manufacturing WILL be moving to other countries and back to the US, it's already happening. Here's some math that is a general reflection of what's going on and taking shape:
Worker in China: $300/month Worker in US: $2000/month. Both are making widgets. In Shanghai, China's most productive city - pop. 23 million is LESS productive than say Dallas Texas - pop 6 million. A worker in China makes 1000 widgets a day, a worker in Dallas makes 8000. The average US worker is EIGHT TIMES more productive (http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci13-8/ci13-8.html ) than a Chinese worker. This means it takes EIGHT Chinese people to produce the same as one US worker.
So in China: 1000 workers x 1000 widgets = 1,000,000 widgets = $300,000 usd a month
In US: 125 workers x 8000 widgets = 1,000,000 widgets = $250,000 usd/month.
Now, because of taxes and benefits etc. in the US, let's just add in another $75,000usd a month to the US, and for China, let's add in an extra $25,000 for shipping costs and import/export taxes, which gives us:
US production: $325,000/month
China production: $325,000/month
Ok, these are rough estimates, but the general idea is sound. Before, when a Chinese worker was only making $125 a month and could be worked 17 hours a day to make up for productivity loss, this made business sense. Now, more than half of China's population, for the first time in history, lives in cities. Costs and salaries are going up.
Also in China, most companies have a "fudge-fund" for "acceptable losses" due to government payouts, "licenses", and batches of crap products. Not to mention being ripped off by unsavory "partners".
In the past, this used to be much cheaper even with all the BS to make stuff here. This is becoming no longer the case. Just look at Gneral Motors in the US to see a prime example of what other companies are doing. GM moved a lot of stuff BACK to the US and is now once again the leading auto manufacturer in the world and turning record profits.
The west is not "in decline", it just needs time to recover and restructure, which it will do to better fit in the global market. Some companies are moving manufacturing to Vietnam, Cambodia, and India to ride the cheap labor markets there, but that (if China is used as an example) will last for 20 years or so before they are lo longer cheap. Same thing happened in Mexico, and just look how well they're doing now.
OK, rant over.
So, back to the OP question: Is the US trying holding China back? No, China will take care of that themselves. China needs to modify it's economy and FAST to remain competitive. As for the South China Sea, it a ridiculous claim by China that they own the whole thing. International law states ocean shore from 200km out is soverign territory and China's claim violates this. So yes, the US will help the Phillipines (and Malaysia, Vietnam, etc.) protect their international rights.
nevermind:
I love pointing out the productivity gap too. The GDP of places like Portland is the same as a places like Shenzhen. Not too mention, as you said, shipping costs. Then factor in the general BS you have to deal with to do business here and leaving is a good option. I noticed when I was back home alot of stuff that used to be made in China was now made in Bengladesh.
thedude:
Great argument Mr. Tibbles. I would also add that because of the great recession many old factories in the US are starting up again with non-unionized employees or the workers have a fraction of the benifits they had 20 or more years ago now and are being paid far less, so the cost of manufacturing in the US may actually be cheaper now.
Traveler:
Excellent post Mr Tibbles, and spot on the mark. China is starting to believe it's own hype, making a total of one country that actually does.
Chaching:
Thank you Tibbles. Well put. I might like to add a response to the comments below as well. In addition to Tibbles points on productivity ratios, and to agree with the comment below about the housing bubble. It is also very true with commercial real estate as well. These developers are creating an over heated market. Let me lay it out for you. I work for a hotel design firm. Most developers want to develop residential property because this is where the profit is. However, the government often times grants parcels of land to the developer as a MUD, multi-use development. Which a certain portion is required to be commercial, most times involving a star-rated hotel. The developers will often times sell off this portion of land and keep the residential part for fast profit. Well, if you see what I see, then you will know that the commercial portions are just as bad, if not worse of a bubble than the residential portion. These commercial office skyscrapers sitting vacant for years in hopes that someday the value will go up. Here is the problem. You can't sell something without a buyer. So, the speculation is that the rest of China's economy will catch up to fill those vacancies. The hope is that one day, someone will actually occupy that office space. Otherwise it is a game of Hearts, where the last guy holding the Queen of Spades is a sucker. House of cards? Most definitely. 981977..., uh yeah China's economy is slowing down dude. 11% to 8% to .... This is the natural progression of developing nations, but one other aspect about developing nations is that the growth rate becomes more stable, the economic environment more predictable, and viability becomes more sustainable. In other words, systemic risk is drastically reduced. However, I really am weary of China's stability. China is really stuck between a rock and a hard place right now. I really don't think China's economy is self sustainable. True intrinsic value is based on a country's competitive advantage. China is battling other Asian countries on the "who has cheaper products front." Meanwhile, China's education system does not promote creativity or innovation. So in terms of competing with Japan or the US or Europe, it has to be a cost leadership strategy that China uses. So, China is backed into a corner. They have to make some major reforms to their education system or continue to try and manipulate their currency, because they don't have any other option. Currency manipulation is a whole lot cheaper than education reform.
I would refer you all to one of the better essays on the subject in which the author very lucidly details the structural, political and economic reasons for the fall and decline of the American Empire:
The Decline of the United States of America: The Moral, Political and Economic Causes
Professor R. Tremblay of the Universite de Montreal
nevermind:
What I think is funny your inability to see China has peaked and is now on the decline. So, now all us foreigners will go home with the money we saved and all you true believers will be left here to deal with a slowing economy, a still corrupt government and a public no longer willing to sacrifice their freedoms for the promise of economic prosperity that no longer comes. Enjoy!
giadrosich:
Good food for thought, but better men than he have been saying this for a long, long time. Unfulfilled prophecy amounts to little but speculation.
Btw, it's "better," not "betters." Thank you very much
981977405:
One good turn deserves another. Thank you for the spelling remark. You are missing a "period" at the end of your last sentence by the way.
giadrosich:
Actually, I left it off on purpose in order to give you something constructive to do. Thank you very much.
Yes!
Well, strictly speaking, "the US" in this case is the government and all the rich folks who control and live off all the money the US makes, want to hold China back.
China has been used by the US (and, obviously other countries around the world), and China has willingly allowed itself to be used (again, the politicians and rich people).
We got what we wanted from China - without giving them too much in return - and now, other places are able to give us what we want, so we go to them instead.
China is about to become a major world leader in all aspects shortly (though, still producing crap quality), as it suddenly rips up all its natural resources (that the US and Europe don't have their hands on... unelss they get in really well with Africa), and start producing goods from those materials...so they won't need to import raw materials first.. thus, the cost of production will go down. That's why T!bet is so important - natural resources!
What will save the rest of the world will be recycling... think of all that coal and oil that we just waste. And all that metal. Once we get the process of recycling refined, the concept of international trade will drastically change.
In the meantime, it's still mostly an us vs them mentality... but, as we know, you need to help them a little bit, in order to help us.
Btw, final point on MrT's post... just because 'international law' says something, doesn't actually mean it's right. So, China may very well justifiably argue that the west is trying to control China's sovereignty in this respect. After all, who said 200km's was an appropriate distance?? (and, why isn't Hawaii independant?? Why is there still a dispute in the Falkland Islands? How did Hong Kong and Macau remain under foreign control for so long??) i'm not saying it's right or wrong, just saying that there is a valid argument...
BTW - Shanghai is losing (has lost) its place as manufacturing capital in China... it's moved down south - because 1800RMB is too much to pay... you can now get the same stuff for only 1000 or less RMB... so those figures have changed. (course, it depends on what things your talking about... MG still has it's engines manufactured by Shanghai Motors)
nevermind:
"We got what we wanted from China - without giving them too much in return - and now, other places are able to give us what we want, so we go to them instead." Are you daft? This place before we opened up our markets to them was starving, desolate and depressing. Care to go back to the 60s? Ask any Chinese person if they prefered that.
Shining_brow:
Why yes, I am daft... :p
Actually, I was seeing that a consequence, not a goal. It wasn't our intention to do that, but because we needed stuff, China had to step up. Which is why the big cities are doing really well, but some places still seem to be stuck in the 50's (or 20's). We don't build a factory - China does that... we just tell them what we want them to make in it.
So, yeah, I agree that it's because of us (the rest the world) that China has come leaps and bounds in the last few decades, but I won't say that we 'did' it - or even cared if it happened... as long as we got what we wanted.
MrTibbles:
you said: "just because 'international law' says something, doesn't actually mean it's right." Actually in this case, there is a UN charter, called the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) which was signed and ratified by China which states that for any country (especially island nations) that they have jurisdiction (as part of their territory for commercial, economic, etc purposes) over 200 nautical miles (sorry, I said km before - 200NM is about 370km) from the coastline of said country. This was also signed and ratified by the other countries in question - Phillipines, Malaysia, Vietnam, etc. Please note, this was never even an issue until recently when there was large oil deposits discovered in many regions of the South China Sea, then suddenly, the entire body of water became "historically and traditionally part of China".
beaufortninja:
Hawaii isn't independent because the US subjugated their kingdom in the 1800's.
Nope. All of this will become a moot point when China's economy melts down like a plastic figurine on a hot plate. We are already seeing the signs.
what sign have you already seen?
China economy development relies on real estate. Last year, government launched a new policy which there is only two hourses under people's name. Those who want to make fortunre by buying and selling houses are forbidden to invest more in houses. While there is nothing for the rich to invest. Hence, one of three ways booming ecnomony callapses. China will enlarge internal demanding to help with ecnomony.
Of course, I feel China does not lay solid foundation like the west. people are still poor, inability to consume goods.
giadrosich:
One sure sign is the housing bubble in China is about to burst as prices have become over-inflated in the major markets and working their way into secondary and third-tier markets.
The manufacturing sector has already taken a hit as those markets have moved to other Asian countries (Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia) because of the rising costs of "doing business" in China, and as workers demand a living wage for their services.
Another problem is the amount of unchecked corruption in Chinese business, which has a direct effect on economic health. When money goes into lining someones pocket instead of intended usage, such as quality control, health and safety, the cost of business again rises and the reputation of Chinese goods suffer.
Still another problem is the environment. Chinese air, land and water are becoming increasingly polluted, and the environmental impact has yet to reach a critical mass, but is rapidly approaching that point. All of these factors have economic impact.
I could go on. I haven't touched upon fraudulent lending practices, or government monopolies, or unfair trade mentality, or how an export based economic model is unsustainable, or how 40% of all buildings (residential and commercial) remain unbought or unleased. Did I mention intellectual property theft, and how major foreign corporations are pulling out of China as they no long want their products stolen and imitated by domestic companies?
The Chinese government refuses to do anything about any of this, because that would mean holding people accountable and the loss of power.
Do some research from a lot of sources, and you will see a very different picture than what is being painted in domestic news outlets.
I am not sure China's economy is going down. But, for sure that China does not have contract spirit. There needs an all-inclusive legal system to secure fair trade. That is core competitiveness.
Sure the US want China to be behind them... in fact the US will try to hold back even their Alies.... but unfotunatly for the US... its too little too late....
Shining_brow:
Yeah!! Some of the deals made certainly haven't helped Australia too much! :(
I think that the entire liberal (UK meaning, not US) thinking world wants to hold back China in all ways except as a growth export market for their own goods.
Here's the reason in a nutshell:
Jeremy Paxman (UK TV journalist): 'Do you have all the same freedoms as a Western woman?'
Wealthy, young Chinese woman: 'Yes'.
JP: 'No you don't. You can't change your government'.
WYCW: (Aghast) 'Why I should want change my government?'
JP: 'You have no say whatsoever in the running of your country'.
Do want to see this happen in your own country? A future where the Chinese political model dominates is not one I would care to be a part of. There's a huge bump coming along the road for China if the political model does not change to fit the huge rise in wealth disparity. Sure, you can get rich...so what.
Business people all over the world want to invest in China, but apart from all the crap that they have to go through to do that, there is all the corruption, as well as slack employees, and sub-standard quality controls.In the past, this was tolerated because other costs in production were much lower, so the benefits were greater.
Now, other markets have opened up, so investors will be leaving China by the boatload to go to those other markets, and China will get left behind. It will take a little while for some particular production lines to be opened up and fully operational, but when they do, China will start to feel it - mostly in the big cities. The neaveau (sp?) rich will feel it first (after the government), and it will slowly trickle down as, people will be taking pay cuts, and lay-offs. Exports will start to dry up - THEN China will notice!!! Whether there is someone with some real smarts is in charge then, and does something about it - or the people get smart and realise why..... that, we shall see!
blah:
If you go to shopping mall in Beijing, occasionally you will find some clothes made in Vietnam. What you said already happened.
Well, the Phillipines are not an enemy of the US, so yes, I think they will.
Oh, I just realised - we've all been discussing economy, where the actual questions positied was about local power...
Yes, the US will hold China "back". China agreed to a deal (UN ratification), China is now renegging on that deal (claiming islands it signed away). China is sending out warships...
Of course the US will intervene in a fight between them and the Phillipines - doesn't it 'owe' it to them?? (not to mention, all the Americans living there?)
China has always been one of the first countries to jump up and down about something, and then start military moves - just to puff up its fur and bear its teeth... but when someone else does it, it's to provoke a war, and China is in the right.... China's face will be its downfall!!!
The economic debates here are quite interesting, but the substance of the question concerned the practical exercise of diplomatic and military power, if I read it correctly.
Yes, I think that the US will strongly support smaller regional powers (particularly the Philippines and Thailand, but the US is increasingly close to Vietnam also) against Chinese moves to expand influence south. I can't actually see either nation going so far as to fully mobilise... but brinksmanship, military aid, integration and showy military exercises: yes.
In the same way China has previously worked hard to ring fence India, the US is working hard to bring former enemies (notably Vietnam and Burma) into a closer alliance, often by exploiting fears of Chinese power.
It seems that a part of the US strategy is to ecourage a US-friendly and unified ASEAN body to act as a sort of Asian counterweight against Chinese expansion. China, in turn, has poured billions of dollars into (frequently energy based) projects in her poorer neighbours, often the same neighbours the US is trying to engage. It makes an awkward line for them to walk.
Of course, China's increased economic strength compared to 10/20/30 years ago is relevent to all of the above.
Sorry if this is a bit too much of a ramble!
