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Q: Is the good times over and the gravy train slowing down?
so i read an article that more expats are leaving than coming in
so i read that gdp debt is 245 percent and growth is slower than inflation
the baked potato for 4 rmb at the illegal street peddler was 1 rmb in 2010
schools are calling me more for side work because less teachers are available
requirements have tighten up so young teachers are going elsewhere
schools that would never break rules are now hiring a student visa teacher from south africa and english speakers from cameron and ghana that used to only work in training schools.
add in pollution, food and general aggravations like the internet
is it time to move on before we ride the bell curve all the way down.
Your thing with the potato is a very good indicator of the local folks.. I think so anyways.... 1 RMB to 4 RMB is just the kind of thing the people cannot live with. It is real and it just can not continue. I don't care what the government says, the potato is a real thing for an average person.
I do not daily buy stuff, (groceries, fruits, vegies) but I I do hear from the wife about "expensive" from time to time. more than she knows or is used to.. not 4 X obviously but it is a definite thing to watch....... angry street vendors could be an awesome party.
no doubt good times over and the gravy train slowing down .. reality sets in.
I think it depends on what you want. Slow growth is seen as a bad thing in China while anything other than negative growth is seen as a good thing in western countries.
I have seen a definite slow down here over the past few years. But I don't think it's because the economy is failing. What I see now is boarded up shops whereas before they would have a new tenant every 4 months or so. Maybe people are just getting smarter that they know there are no instant riches to be had, the boom town look reduces.
Deep down, the economy is working. Apple posted world record profits recently, but their operating costs are here. The key to a healthy economy is manufacturing. That is here.
Scandinavian:
The key to a healthy economy of mostly lower and middle class is manufacturing. They key to predominantly middle class is knowledge and R&D
ScotsAlan:
I agree scan. And the key to fuedalisim is a few massively rich.
Scandinavian:
.... and the key to democracy is a population of stupid people, which is why I don't know why it isn't implemented in more countries
Your thing with the potato is a very good indicator of the local folks.. I think so anyways.... 1 RMB to 4 RMB is just the kind of thing the people cannot live with. It is real and it just can not continue. I don't care what the government says, the potato is a real thing for an average person.
I do not daily buy stuff, (groceries, fruits, vegies) but I I do hear from the wife about "expensive" from time to time. more than she knows or is used to.. not 4 X obviously but it is a definite thing to watch....... angry street vendors could be an awesome party.
no doubt good times over and the gravy train slowing down .. reality sets in.
As our favorite gal, BHGal says, the potato is an indication. At my first visit to China, people where frantic, everyone recommended that I'd buy as much property as I could (I did consider swinging the Mastercard at the time as it sure was affordable) People where blinded by easy profits on turning cheap housing, but they were not are still are not educated on the consequences of inflating an economy. If property goes up, so does everything else (except migrant workers salaries)
The system i snot healthy. Stories like this
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-millions-of-government-workers-t...
is insane. I am not saying the civil servants should not have their pay adjusted to match development. But doing it in this huge steps reeks of piss poor planning from the central government.
BHGAL:
this story, did not read it all.... but months ago I asked a good friend of mine, a China government tax man, if it was true...... He laughed at me, said the day he ever gets a raise will be when he goes "crooked".
He haws a masters degree in economics (6 years in Canada) and he works as a lowly tax department guy.... ( about 9000 per month)..... no 60% increase is expected by his family, even though he probably deserves it
BHGAL:
I hope you were so lucky to buy property in China about 7 years ago......I know it tripled here in that time, but has since gone down quite drasctically too.
2008 - 2800 sq. m
2010 - 3500 sq. m ... when I married (2009)
2013 - 9000 sq. m
2015 - 7000 sq. m .... today...but in a steady decline.. could probably buy one of these new apartments for 3500-4000.
Its all smoke and mirrors....the neo-lib dream has run its course. They have run out of greater fools....its not whether your economy is a ponzi scheme, the whole world is a ponzi scheme!
In the words of Private Fraser....."We're doomed"
See the good side, if there are fewer teachers and schools are desperate you can ask for more money, if they don't want there is another school next block who is also desperate. The demand exceeds by far the supply and the gap is growing, use this at your advantage to milk more money out of them. 300, 400, 500 RMB per class? They don't have much choice anyway, parents probably send their kids there for the foreign teacher, if there is no foreign teacher then most of them will probably pull their kids out and the center/private school will run out of business.
Seems to me that no one's salary has increased much, if at all, these past 6 or 8 years.
DrMonkey:
Not sure if it's the usual greed and corner-cutting, or economic slowdown... Both ?
Yes, even the Chinese are starting to watch their expenses more closely and most of the big money people have already moved abroad. 2015 is the year the China's real estate bubble will burst and unfortunately America's money bubble will also fail this year as well. It will be scary for sure.
ambivalentmace:
hope your right about both, the sooner the bottom, the sooner we can start climbing out of this mess.

















