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Posts: 5732

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Q: Is the good times over and the gravy train slowing down?

so i read an article that more expats are leaving than coming in

 

so i read that gdp debt is 245 percent and growth is slower than inflation

 

the baked potato for 4 rmb at the illegal street peddler was 1 rmb in 2010

 

schools are calling me more for side work because less teachers are available

 

requirements have tighten up so young teachers are going elsewhere

 

schools that would never break rules are now hiring a student visa teacher from south africa and english speakers from cameron and ghana that used to only work in training schools.

 

add in pollution, food and general aggravations like the internet

 

is it time to move on before we ride the bell curve all the way down.

11 years 32 weeks ago in  General  - China

 
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Your thing with the potato is a very good indicator of the local folks.. I think so anyways....  1 RMB to 4 RMB is just the kind of thing the people cannot live with. It is real and it just can not continue. I don't care what the government says, the potato is a real thing for an average person.

I do not daily buy stuff, (groceries, fruits, vegies) but I I do hear from the wife about "expensive" from time to time. more than she knows or is used to..    not 4 X obviously but it is a definite thing to watch.......  angry street vendors  could be an awesome party.

no doubt good times over and the gravy train slowing down .. reality sets in.

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11 years 32 weeks ago
 
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Posts: 7178

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I think it depends on what you want.  Slow growth is seen as a bad thing in China while anything other than negative growth is seen as a good thing in western countries.

 

I have seen a definite slow down here over the past few years.  But I don't think it's because the economy is failing.  What I see now is boarded up shops whereas before they would have a new tenant every 4 months or so.  Maybe people are just getting smarter that they know there are no instant riches to be had, the boom town look reduces.

 

Deep down, the economy is working.  Apple posted world record profits recently, but their operating costs are here.  The key to a healthy economy is manufacturing. That is here.

Scandinavian:

The key to a healthy economy of mostly lower and middle class is manufacturing. They key to predominantly middle class is knowledge and R&D

11 years 32 weeks ago
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ScotsAlan:

I agree scan. And the key to fuedalisim is a few massively rich.

11 years 32 weeks ago
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Scandinavian:

.... and the key to democracy is a population of stupid people, which is why I don't know why it isn't implemented in more countries

11 years 32 weeks ago
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11 years 32 weeks ago
 
Posts: 2578

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Your thing with the potato is a very good indicator of the local folks.. I think so anyways....  1 RMB to 4 RMB is just the kind of thing the people cannot live with. It is real and it just can not continue. I don't care what the government says, the potato is a real thing for an average person.

I do not daily buy stuff, (groceries, fruits, vegies) but I I do hear from the wife about "expensive" from time to time. more than she knows or is used to..    not 4 X obviously but it is a definite thing to watch.......  angry street vendors  could be an awesome party.

no doubt good times over and the gravy train slowing down .. reality sets in.

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11 years 32 weeks ago
 
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As our favorite gal, BHGal says, the potato is an indication. At my first visit to China, people where frantic, everyone recommended that I'd buy as much property as I could (I did consider swinging the Mastercard at the time as it sure was affordable) People where blinded by easy profits on turning cheap housing, but they were not are still are not educated on the consequences of inflating an economy. If property goes up, so does everything else (except migrant workers salaries) 

The system i snot healthy. Stories like this

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-millions-of-government-workers-t...

is insane. I am not saying the civil servants should not have their pay adjusted to match development. But doing it in this huge steps reeks of piss poor planning from the central government. 

BHGAL:

this story, did not read it all....  but months ago I asked a good friend of mine, a China government tax man, if it was true...... He laughed at me, said the day he ever gets a raise will be when he goes "crooked".

 He haws a masters degree in economics (6 years in Canada) and he works as a lowly tax department guy.... ( about 9000 per month).....  no 60% increase is expected by his family, even though he probably deserves it

11 years 32 weeks ago
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BHGAL:

I hope you were so lucky to buy property in China about 7 years ago......I know it tripled here in that time, but has since gone down quite drasctically too.

2008 - 2800 sq. m

2010 - 3500 sq. m  ...  when I married (2009)

2013 - 9000 sq. m

2015 - 7000 sq. m ....  today...but in a steady decline.. could probably buy one of these new apartments for 3500-4000.

11 years 32 weeks ago
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11 years 32 weeks ago
 
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Its all smoke and mirrors....the neo-lib dream has run its course. They have run out of greater fools....its not whether your economy is a ponzi scheme, the whole world is a ponzi scheme!

 

In the words of Private Fraser....."We're doomed"

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11 years 32 weeks ago
 
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See the good side, if there are fewer teachers and schools are desperate you can ask for more money, if they don't want there is another school next block who is also desperate. The demand exceeds by far the supply and the gap is growing, use this at your advantage to milk more money out of them. 300, 400, 500 RMB per class? They don't have much choice anyway, parents probably send their kids there for the foreign teacher, if there is no foreign teacher then most of them will probably pull their kids out and the center/private school will run out of business.

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11 years 32 weeks ago
 
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Seems to me that no one's salary has increased much, if at all, these past 6 or 8 years.

 

DrMonkey:

Not sure if it's the usual greed and corner-cutting, or economic slowdown... Both ?

11 years 31 weeks ago
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royceH:

Greed and corner-cutting.  And inefficiency.  Too many meetings and not enough productivity.

 

11 years 31 weeks ago
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royceH:

Greed and corner-cutting.  And inefficiency.  Too many meetings and not enough productivity.

 

11 years 31 weeks ago
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11 years 31 weeks ago
 
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Yes, even the Chinese are starting to watch their expenses more closely and most of the big money people have already moved abroad. 2015 is the year the China's real estate bubble will burst and unfortunately America's money bubble will also fail this year as well. It will be scary for sure.

ambivalentmace:

hope your right about both, the sooner the bottom, the sooner we can start climbing out of this mess.

11 years 30 weeks ago
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11 years 30 weeks ago
 
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A: 1. Native speaker. 2. Bachelor's degree, minimum. Apostilled. The
A:1. Native speaker. 2. Bachelor's degree, minimum. Apostilled. They stopped recognizing online degrees several years ago. . 3. Either a teaching certification from your home country/iPGCE or a 120 hrs TEFL course. Apostilled 4. Criminal background check from your home country issued within the past 6 months. Apostilled.  This is rigid. The only legal loopholes for non-native speakers to legally teach are if they're already certified as a subject teacher in their home country, or if they obtained their degree in one of the designated native English speaking countries.  -- Spiderboenz