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Q: How good are you at predicting the weather where you are?
China says no to amateur weathermen
You may not be able to control the weather - but you can control the forecasts.
China's amateur meteorologists, or indeed anyone with an opinion on whether it might rain, now need to watch out.
In an extraordinary step, Beijing is banning individuals or organisations from issuing unofficial weather forecasts as of 1 May.
Those breaking the law could face fines of up to $8,000 (£5,200) or even imprisonment.
Beijing says that only official forecasts from the country's weather centre are allowed to be published.
Unsurprisingly, the ban has been widely mocked online by a public that is increasingly sceptical about government announcements and which goes elsewhere to find information.
One internet user wrote: "The government can't give us accurate forecasts and now they've banned us from even guessing."
Another internet user asked: "What if your mother tells you to take an umbrella because she thinks it might rain - could she then be fined?"
State media say the new measures are needed to prevent public panic in the face of a major weather event.
One newspaper said that a false alert about a typhoon earlier this year prompted people to cancel their travel plans.
One amateur meteorologist - who refused to give his real name - said the ban was a good thing.
He runs a weibo microblog called Chinese Fans of Meteorology - which has half a million followers - but was at pains to stress he never makes forecasts.
He told us that many Chinese were not terribly sophisticated when it came to weather reports and would simply believe any warnings that were posted online.
If anything, however, the ban fits into a wider government clampdown on independent sources of information that challenge the official version of events.
Ahead of a major summit last year, China banned phone apps that provided pollution readings from the US embassy in Beijing.
But even if the government doesn't want to talk about it, smog - a bit like the rain - is a problem it cannot hide.
courtesy of the BBC
I am not a meteorologist but I can tell that the rain is usually a good sign, it means the next day will have a pretty good AQI since it cleans most of the particles in the air.
sorrel:
you are safe as long as you don't try to share this observation with anyone 
Curious how what passes for small-talk in most countries now is 'illegal' in Beijing.
ScotsAlan:
Technically yes, sorrel.
But we all know the law will only apply in the immediate vicinity of the leaders who declared the law. Just like with the dancing aunties. The law only seems to apply outside the offices and houses of the big cheeses.
I salute the people of China for their ability to totally ignore all laws. The country is lawless. Especially for the dancing aunties
sorrel:
@ScotsAlan
surely you know that if a foreigner makes any weather predictions, it will be all over CCTV news and the individual will be fined for 'hurt feelings'.
Not to mention the demands for compensation if the predictions are wrong.
'But you never said it will rain so my fake gucci bag was destroyed' 
s-Poon from CCteli is my star. Always 'sunny', and I never listen much. Just 'observe'.
I am not a meteorologist but I can tell that the rain is usually a good sign, it means the next day will have a pretty good AQI since it cleans most of the particles in the air.
sorrel:
you are safe as long as you don't try to share this observation with anyone
Curious how what passes for small-talk in most countries now is 'illegal' in Beijing.
ScotsAlan:
Technically yes, sorrel.
But we all know the law will only apply in the immediate vicinity of the leaders who declared the law. Just like with the dancing aunties. The law only seems to apply outside the offices and houses of the big cheeses.
I salute the people of China for their ability to totally ignore all laws. The country is lawless. Especially for the dancing aunties
sorrel:
@ScotsAlan
surely you know that if a foreigner makes any weather predictions, it will be all over CCTV news and the individual will be fined for 'hurt feelings'.
Not to mention the demands for compensation if the predictions are wrong.
'But you never said it will rain so my fake gucci bag was destroyed'
At first glance, this looks really stupid, but thinking about it, is it not just a continuation of a cultural revolution?
We all know how superstitious local people can be, so I suspect is law is not aimed at the average person who might make a comment such as "looks like rain today". It will be aimed at the tea leaf reading gurus who see a swallow fly backwards and declares a typhoon is on it's way.
It must be a difficult thing to balance culture and progress. On the one hand cultural identity is important to the people of a Nation, and it could be argued it is even more important to the Government because it unites the people, and makes them feel different to other nations. On the other hand, what to do if some cultural superstitions hold the people back and restricts progress?
But edicts such as this is maybe not the best way to do it. Because who is accountable?
The forecast for Guangzhou has been for thunderstorms. Wrong. Not been any where I am. What if a farmer needs rain, and instead of paying his Shaman to say a prayer and sing a dance, he has now only got the Government to blame. A Shaman is there, if his dance in wrong he has angry farmers to deal with. If the Government get it wrong, who do people blame?
Lets not forget, the generation of people who believed Mao could control the weather are still alive.
Anyhow..... I predict tomorrows weather in Guangzhou to be hot and sticky.... and the day after that... and again and again, maybe getting a bit cooler come October. Like this:
http://www.comedy.co.uk/guide/tv/the_fast_show_special/videos/7525/scorc...
BHGAL:
scots, if your farmer friend wants to move on from his Shaman, I am available to go directly to his farm location to assess the probabilities of rain in the coming days.
My record is well above average in my predictions at my current location. I will not sing or dance {you and he will be happy for that (trust me).} I will give a detailed analysis, a small upfront payment required (10%). The remainder paid promptly after the prediction/analysis proves accurate. Any discrepences in our estimation of "accurate" can be promptly negotiated and settled quickly.
My fees will depend on the size of the property and what he is growing.
whether the weather weather's or not, I'll wear forever my leather I've got, whether the weather needs it or not, I'll wear it even if weather is hot.
*ok, I've had 4 tsingtao
It's a perpetual cycle...
Government makes education poor so people stay dumb. Government is afraid dumb people will believe anything, so it stops others from giving information for fear that dumb people will listen. Government bans all other information sources to keep people dumb but in control.
The CCP is a government for fools and idiots. Once the population rises out of the drunken stupor that is the CCP education system... China will be in a state of revolution. But when will this be? Soon?
BHGAL:
REVOLUTION:
Over 50 years old, no need to worry.(expat)
Over 50 years old, pray the past doesn’t catch up.(local)
38-49 – pray daily that the boss(es) don’t get busted. (get rid of the car and mortgage ASAP)
25-37 - pray daily that your income is legit and not too much, but comfortable enough.(save a little)(incognito)
Under 25 years old, start planning your escape now. Marry an escape, white, black, red, yellow (expat) at any cost.
YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST… 2030ish
The government doesn't mind you commenting on the weather, it is the pollution they are concerned about. They are basically removing all records of the pollution from the media. You will notice that on the weather reports they don't mention the pollution very often. Now for us now we can still see it but in the future when you check the records people will be "hey, the pollution wasn't that bad". This law is just a continuation of this. They are writing their own history.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/08/120810134105.htm
just a little something to show that pollution can be minimized with some decent regulation. I wonder why the Chinese don't learn from the past and skip them mistakes already made by others and make some real legislation to help the lives of their people. Nothing happens overnite, but now might be a good time to start.I predict very warm and humid today, thunder and a little shower mid afternoon.(3-5). clean the fuel for cars and industries, how many cigarrettes to equal a ton of shitty burnt coal, or a "bad" tank of gasoline? I always thought I should have been a Weatherman or an Economist. Little consequences for daily inaccuracies and a pretty good chance of getting it right once in a while. by the way..... markets will be on the way up on Monday.
Shining_brow:
"I wonder why the Chinese don't learn from the past and skip them mistakes already made by others"
Honestly, I think it's face. If they look at other countries, they're sort of acknowledging they can't do it themselves. It's one of the biggest problems with many governments all around the world - the unwillingness to admit that they might need help from someone else. (also why there's a lack of bringing over experts from other countries - they'd rather 'train' their own).
