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Q: How Long Before China and India go to war over clean water?
Both countries get their fresh water from the Tibetan plateau rivers and China has been damning them to keep 80% of the water in China. Both nations have 42% of the world's population and only 9% of the world's fresh water. How long before things erupt into a war?
I don't know why would India and China go to war over anything when the value of their bilateral trade is now close to 80 bln. USD and is steadily rising. Maybe the two countries don't enjoy the most amicable of relations (especially because close Sino-Pakistani cooperation), but war is out of cards.
The two countries actually fought a war some 54 years ago, which India lost, but it all happened in totally different international setting when neither India nor China possessed atomic bomb and the world was too occupied with the Cuban crisis to even notice it.
Both are member countries of BRICS and both need each others support if they want to safeguard their future. India relies on Chinese imports and potentially Chinese investments and technology transfer, China needs positive relations with India to safeguard unobstructed transport of oil from Africa and the Middle East. Though, there are some recurrent tensions in kind of still unresolved border disputes between the two, however there are no signs of an imminent war.
Blondie_:
water is more fundamental to life than trade agreements.
when you can not grow food or drink, when the life of you family is at stake and you have no-where you can go and no options, when you have been used to doing this for generations, people will ignore any 'treaty' or political deals.
When you have nothing to lose because the cosseted rich have nothing but words to give, when someone is profiting at the expense of everything you have, do you think people will remain peaceful?
Jackofalltrade:
Yeah, but would you imagine Indian peasants attacking China with their spades? How would they even cross the border, in most places located at least few thousand meters above the sea level in almost impenetrable mountains, where temperatures often reach -40C. It's a way easier to approach India from China than the other way round.
Besides, there have been many hopeless people in both countries for almost 70 years now and the only war that was fought between them was over uninhabited scrap of land. I am not saying that there won't be any potential disputes, but I can't imagine them being solved through wars
Blondie_:
70 years ago there was not over 2 billion people in China and India combined.
also millions died in China due to famine and CR in the interim.
now there are millions more people whose expectations have changed due to modern communication.
displacing people due to drought will cause more unrest and when people have nothing to lose, a spade in the back of another person could mean the difference between life and death for some people and their dependents.
Shining_brow:
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/india-moving-100-tanks-near-china-border-1571394
'War'' might be a bit strong, but certainly 'military action' will happen!
Jackofalltrade:
Shining, such things happen at least 50 times a year. Most often small groups of Chinese soldiers go trekking to the contested (and not less importantly extremely picturesque) parts of Ladakh. Whenever India protests China replies that the group was not following any orders from above and it's made to retreat back to China-why? As India and China don't recognize their common border, stationing troops in particular territory is a proof that a country recognizes it as its own.
Shining_brow:
Until such times as some Indian troop or commander gets sick of the BS, and decides to shoot them, or capture and imprison them...
China keeps playing chicken with all the other countries around it, hoping that the others will back down... someday, they won't! And, it won't be a head of state that will start it, it will be the guys on the ground who get sick and tired of the political BS.
I would say May be both countries will find ways to keep peace as they did through this long time and continue peace.
But as water is more connected issue to people's life and if things goes too far, It can create the war or near war situations.
For Above Comments :
Any one should not look down on a entire nation or race,driven by ego,selfish interests or ignorance which could lead it too far where there is no come back.
Time changes ,Things changes. Nothing stays forever.
Karma always comes around and pays back what is due !
Blondie_:
times are changing, but people are not changing.
ask a man who is barely surviving to support something in the 'national interest', especially access to clean water that can mean the difference between life and death, and he will always put himself and his survival first.
I certainly would not want to live in a country that was downstream from a river in China, as they have probably the highest percentage polluted water in the world, and could easily destroy surrounding arable lands though their short-term greed.
israel has the desalinization technology to fix this problem and china and india will adopt it, water is not the problem, the problem is do countries have the vision and will to spend to put the water where it needs to be for the future. for the companies building the infrastructure for water supplies long term, its going to a great retirement investment and a great stock or industry for smart workers to invest in now.
retiredinchina:
http://www.ozy.com/2016/how-the-west-coast-could-dump-trump/74001
i wonder if the country of cascadia will share their water with america.
In a few years time when both countries screw the Himalaya up completely.
There will probably be no war.
It would be the same as the last 5 times...
China 'declares' land is theirs and has been since "ancient times".
China then occupies that land with military force and enforces supremacist laws to place the Han at a higher social ladder and the newfound 'minority' at the bottom.
China then threatens everyone else who tries to intervene.
Everyone backs off to keep lining their pockets with China's business.
The new area becomes another province.
The new province then opens parks where the 'minority' can now live at... provided they entertain the superior Han race with their inferior barbarian culture.
Rinse and Repeat.
