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Q: How long will it take for China to cave?

The Chicoms are playing a game of chicken and they're real close to flinching. This is hurting them way more than the US. Whether they're waiting to see the results of the 2020 election is irrelevant - they can't make it that far. It's simple economics. The $530 billion that we buy from them is 5% of their GDP. What they buy from us is a small fraction of our GDP. Ultimately, there will be a trade deal, but I don't see it happening until 2020. In the meantime, middle class Chinese are buying Huawei to demonstrate their patriotism. The ultra rich Chinese are simply fleeing the country and buying iPhones overseas. Patriotism goes out the window when you have the opportunity to leave an authoritarian state with a struggling economy.

1 week 5 days ago in  General  - China

 
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Governor

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Nationalism seems to be on the rise everywhere. Strong nations is the normal state of things, globalism and internationalism was only a small page in history over the last 30-40 years, no, actually it was more akin to a paragraph or even a footnote in the grand scheme of things.

 

The good news here is that Western nations thrive on nationalism and patriotism (aka soft nationalism) and suck as globalism / internationalism due to being too expensive for the industrial appareil that they created.

 

The bad news comes for China here who thrived on globalism, but globalism for thy, not for me, China thrived on the naivety of other nations that opened their markets while China didn't.

 

Europe especially seems to have had more than enough with globalism, with liberal leaders getting kicked out of office one after the other. Italy, Poland, Hungary, Holland, Britain, etc... they are all turning nationalistic and kissing goodbye to the great pan-European project that is the EU. France, Germany, Spain are next.

 

In the US, Trump will get reelected 100% sure, he has the support of the silent majority. The loud anti-Trump voices are mostly liberals on welfare with way too much spare time on their hands. The silent majority who support him are too busy with working and keeping the economy running to protest, but they make their voices known on voting day.

 

China will cave in because China thrives on a globalist order that is collapsing before our very eyes, the tariffs are the tip of the iceberg here, and its headed right towards China.

 

We are witnessing the end of liberalism and the strong return of patriotism. It's an exciting time to be alive!

Lord_hanson:

I agree completely. I'm optimistic about the future for the West. The naive leadership and their policies of letting other nations take advantage of them seems to be passing.

1 week 4 days ago
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ambivalentmace:

The instant equity of private property and the labor cost advantage are disappearing in the age of competition and capital moving to lower cost, history repeats itself, now they may actually have to compete without stealing and based on ability and real productivity and innovation. I'm sure the superior Chinese will excel at this and leave the technology of Japan in the dust. Severe Sarcasmno

1 week 3 days ago
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core2k:

You're misinterpreting nationalism (as a political force) with national identity. National identity is on the rise in Europe as a backlash to more than two decades of socialism, and the pushing of multiculturalist agendas. Still, it's going to take time for the socialists/liberials/etc to leave power and their policies to be overturned. There are plenty of people in Europe who have been indoctrinated with false media, and biased educational policies to believe that socialism (in reality, marxism) is the way forward. After all, welfare states, in spite of being incapable of being supported, are still being maintained and expanded. We're going to see another decade, in all probability, before most European countries, return to conservative governments. Conservative, not right wing... In spite of all the media hysteria, it's pretty groundless a fear. Conservative gorvernments tend to be the european way, especially once the EU is dissolved or modified to have less actual power over national interests. Pride in National identity, and the abolishment for unfair policies to benefit illegal immigration is likely to be the primary thrust of European changes... not any degree of political nationalism which tends to manifist itself in militaristic and totalarian agendas. We've seen a growth in a desire to reduce government regulation and it's invasion of individual rights. Thank god, it's finally happening.. perhaps soon, Europe will be worth returning to. Always seemed wrong that I would have more personal freedom in China than in my own country. 
 
 
I also think you (and others in the comments) are being incredibly naive about the US and China. There are other markets than the US. Asia, South America and Europe all provide China with plenty of options, and "caving" to the US will not bring any long-term benefits to China. They know this. Fact is, most people worldwide know that the US is no longer a defender of free trade, and any submission will be exploited. There is no benefit in accepting US demands, because those demands will continue to increase. it's the nature of bullies to behave in such a manner once they gain a victory.. and yes, the US is indeed a bully on the world stage these days. China, on the other hand, while remaining suspect, has been growing in credibility for the last decade.  
 
 
Instead, it's far more likely that we wil see a greater movement to push US trade/economic infliuence back, and to promote a greater global market for China to engage in. And they'll get plenty of support from Russia, and the EU to do so. The US has been very heavy handed in the last thirty years towards it's "allies", and now stands as the bully in the room. The behavior of the US after 911, along with the regular breaking of international law, shows a hyprocitical attitude towards international relations... and most countries will want to distance themselves from the US.. It's not as if US politics is heading towards conservative behavior. Instead, US political parties are becoming more extreme, with candidates who have very shady agendas. The bypassing of democracy with rigging of elections just reinforces the impression that the US is no longer a true democracy (in spite of its propaganda to the effect), and can't really be counted upon to protect the values of traditional western culture. Seizure of European nationals and imprisoning them in guantanamo bay without evidence put paid to that idea for many Europeans. Fact is that many Europeans and other nationalities who might have supported the US previously fear them now.
 
 
This whole attitude of "make america strong" is fine in itself, except that it seems to mean doing so by screwing over everyone else in the process. China, on the other hand, has lost most of it's negative reputation since the 80's. Sure, it's broken plenty of agreements, but all of the major powers have done the same. The WTO isn't the organisation it once was, and is quickly going the way of the UN. Basically, the spokesperson of whoever has the biggest stick. Which is still the US, but that stick has been swiping at more than China in the last two decades. It comes down to China remaining the greatest marketplace, and even if their economy buckles (which isn't guaranteed), they'll remain the biggest marketplace. The US isn't going to take that away from them, and it's highly unlikely that anywhere else will establish themselves within the next two decades. India had a shot but blew it badly with their own internal policies and civil troubles.   
 
It really depends on how China handles Taiwan. Time is ticking on that one, with a hefty investment of personal respect. If they engage in military action, then they'll lose all the support and goodwill they've built up (and they've actually built up quite a bit over the last decade). If they handle Taiwan, in a peaceful manner, then they'll gain even more support from the Europe (Since the EU is likely to implode over the next decade). As the US grows ever more unstable, Russia will increase it's ties with China. It's logical. The US needs enemies just as China does. Iran is the only real target in the M.East, but it doesn't have the magical threat that Russia has for the American people (Just as Japan and the US have that magical fear for the Chinese). Any attack on China will see Russia affected since it will establish the US directly on their borders, and the US has a long history of surrounding its foes with military bases. China and Russia will become friendlier both economically and militarily. Europe will likely do the same just because the US has shown repeatedly its contempt for European nations. Both Trump and Obama made repeated media driven "mistruths" about Nato obligations, and the French aren't likely to forget the whole "Freedom Fries" crap. Britain whhich has always been Americas greatest ally is marginalised by their own choice. Never mind that the Invasion of Iraq was one of the biggest lies told during the lives of most of us 'mature' voters in Europe. All to swindle European countries into a coalition of the foolish. Europeans are likely to remember that for a long time.. even if Americans are very quick to dismiss it. The US is becoming increasingly more isolated and they've only got themselves to blame for it. Economically, diplomatically, and militarily. China just needs to relax on any miltary adventure and the US will continue to push everyone else into their camp. 
 
Lastly, as for technology, the rules have changed. We live in a consumer environment with tech companies selling not due to patriotism, but due to investment. Korean and Japan remain the dominent forces in technology, but neither of those countries are particularly favorable towards the US these days. The US hasn't been the technological master (except in certain military areas) since the 90s. Closer ties to China by Japan is unlikely but they still need a market, and the ever growing gap between rich/poor in the US doesn't really provide a good marketplace for their technology. S.Korea might trade technology for support to keep the two Koreas separate which is something China wants anyway. European nations have their niche areas for technology will continue to sit in the middle, and sell to whoever can pay. 
 
Nah. You all seem to be looking at China like the world hasn't changed since the 90s. it has. The US has lost it's Shiny white coat. China, for all it's faults, hasn't engaged in a major war since Korea. Most people don't truly remember the Cultural revolution, and their human rights excesses are ignored easily in this media driven environment. How many has the US engaged in or been connected to since Vietnam (hardly a "just" war either)? Guantanamo Bay is still more fresh in peoples minds than what's happening in any of China's special districts. People have short attention spans for violence, and the reputation of western media has dropped so low that most people just ignore it as sensationalism and propaganda. China is actually looking far more peaceful and stable than the US. Which means the financial centres in Asia (now the Britain has suicided) will continue to invest in China or it's neighbors than risk supporting an increasingly unstable US. US national debt is another reason to hesitate over lording the power of the US economy/influence against others... have you seen how high it's become? It's shocking. 
 
Perhaps you should take a long hard look at what's been happening within the US over the last two decades, and how it might appear to others? The time of western nations automatically siding with the US due to a shared culture is declining fast. To be honest, US culture & behavior, in many ways, is just as alien to Europeans as Chinese culture is. (well, to those who haven't lived in China for an extended period anyway.)
 

6 days 12 hours ago
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RandomGuy:

Core2k nice copypasta, easy to spot because of the wrong formatting, how about you write a real comment?

5 days 7 hours ago
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1 week 4 days ago
 
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Posts: 15591

Emperor

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Not too many have ... (the last sentence), what makes whole matter unrelevant, IMO.

 

China uplifts itself with hating and bashing others ... West and USA in particulary.

 

Was reading report yesterday how one high Chinese offical used profanity which was posted in Global Times un-edited and Chi-web exploded with comments.

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-04/snyder-china-extremely-angry-a...

Snyder: China Is Extremely Angry, And Now Considers The United States To Be Enemy #1

 

I should c&p more, so if you didn't read an article, here is more:

The following comes from the New York Times…

Let me give you a perfect example of what I am talking about. One of the most highly respected news anchors in China, Kang Hui, actually used an expletive when referring to the United States during a news broadcast earlier this week. Normally I would never have such language in one of my articles, but this comment made headlines all over the globe, and I think that it is very important for all of us to understand what the Chinese are saying about us. So since this is a news item of critical importance, I have decided not to censor this quote at all.

“They stir up more troubles and crave the whole world to be in chaos, acting like a shit-stirring stick,” Mr. Kang said on the usually stolid 7 p.m. national news program on CCTV, China’s state broadcaster.

The expletive quickly became one of the most-searched-for phrases on Chinese social media.

In a follow-up video on a CCTV social media account, Mr. Kang boasted about how he had taunted the United States.

“If a handful of Americans always stir up troubles, then we are sorry,” he intoned. “No more do we talk about certain issues. We will also target you. We will bash you till your faces are covered with mud. We will bash you till you are left speechless.”

Could you imagine Anderson Cooper saying something similar about China on CNN?

And actually Mr. Kang likely has far more viewers than Anderson Cooper does.

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1 week 5 days ago
 
Posts: 1101

Governor

2
3
You must be a registered user to vote!
You must be a registered user to vote!
1

Nationalism seems to be on the rise everywhere. Strong nations is the normal state of things, globalism and internationalism was only a small page in history over the last 30-40 years, no, actually it was more akin to a paragraph or even a footnote in the grand scheme of things.

 

The good news here is that Western nations thrive on nationalism and patriotism (aka soft nationalism) and suck as globalism / internationalism due to being too expensive for the industrial appareil that they created.

 

The bad news comes for China here who thrived on globalism, but globalism for thy, not for me, China thrived on the naivety of other nations that opened their markets while China didn't.

 

Europe especially seems to have had more than enough with globalism, with liberal leaders getting kicked out of office one after the other. Italy, Poland, Hungary, Holland, Britain, etc... they are all turning nationalistic and kissing goodbye to the great pan-European project that is the EU. France, Germany, Spain are next.

 

In the US, Trump will get reelected 100% sure, he has the support of the silent majority. The loud anti-Trump voices are mostly liberals on welfare with way too much spare time on their hands. The silent majority who support him are too busy with working and keeping the economy running to protest, but they make their voices known on voting day.

 

China will cave in because China thrives on a globalist order that is collapsing before our very eyes, the tariffs are the tip of the iceberg here, and its headed right towards China.

 

We are witnessing the end of liberalism and the strong return of patriotism. It's an exciting time to be alive!

Lord_hanson:

I agree completely. I'm optimistic about the future for the West. The naive leadership and their policies of letting other nations take advantage of them seems to be passing.

1 week 4 days ago
Report Abuse

ambivalentmace:

The instant equity of private property and the labor cost advantage are disappearing in the age of competition and capital moving to lower cost, history repeats itself, now they may actually have to compete without stealing and based on ability and real productivity and innovation. I'm sure the superior Chinese will excel at this and leave the technology of Japan in the dust. Severe Sarcasmno

1 week 3 days ago
Report Abuse

core2k:

You're misinterpreting nationalism (as a political force) with national identity. National identity is on the rise in Europe as a backlash to more than two decades of socialism, and the pushing of multiculturalist agendas. Still, it's going to take time for the socialists/liberials/etc to leave power and their policies to be overturned. There are plenty of people in Europe who have been indoctrinated with false media, and biased educational policies to believe that socialism (in reality, marxism) is the way forward. After all, welfare states, in spite of being incapable of being supported, are still being maintained and expanded. We're going to see another decade, in all probability, before most European countries, return to conservative governments. Conservative, not right wing... In spite of all the media hysteria, it's pretty groundless a fear. Conservative gorvernments tend to be the european way, especially once the EU is dissolved or modified to have less actual power over national interests. Pride in National identity, and the abolishment for unfair policies to benefit illegal immigration is likely to be the primary thrust of European changes... not any degree of political nationalism which tends to manifist itself in militaristic and totalarian agendas. We've seen a growth in a desire to reduce government regulation and it's invasion of individual rights. Thank god, it's finally happening.. perhaps soon, Europe will be worth returning to. Always seemed wrong that I would have more personal freedom in China than in my own country. 
 
 
I also think you (and others in the comments) are being incredibly naive about the US and China. There are other markets than the US. Asia, South America and Europe all provide China with plenty of options, and "caving" to the US will not bring any long-term benefits to China. They know this. Fact is, most people worldwide know that the US is no longer a defender of free trade, and any submission will be exploited. There is no benefit in accepting US demands, because those demands will continue to increase. it's the nature of bullies to behave in such a manner once they gain a victory.. and yes, the US is indeed a bully on the world stage these days. China, on the other hand, while remaining suspect, has been growing in credibility for the last decade.  
 
 
Instead, it's far more likely that we wil see a greater movement to push US trade/economic infliuence back, and to promote a greater global market for China to engage in. And they'll get plenty of support from Russia, and the EU to do so. The US has been very heavy handed in the last thirty years towards it's "allies", and now stands as the bully in the room. The behavior of the US after 911, along with the regular breaking of international law, shows a hyprocitical attitude towards international relations... and most countries will want to distance themselves from the US.. It's not as if US politics is heading towards conservative behavior. Instead, US political parties are becoming more extreme, with candidates who have very shady agendas. The bypassing of democracy with rigging of elections just reinforces the impression that the US is no longer a true democracy (in spite of its propaganda to the effect), and can't really be counted upon to protect the values of traditional western culture. Seizure of European nationals and imprisoning them in guantanamo bay without evidence put paid to that idea for many Europeans. Fact is that many Europeans and other nationalities who might have supported the US previously fear them now.
 
 
This whole attitude of "make america strong" is fine in itself, except that it seems to mean doing so by screwing over everyone else in the process. China, on the other hand, has lost most of it's negative reputation since the 80's. Sure, it's broken plenty of agreements, but all of the major powers have done the same. The WTO isn't the organisation it once was, and is quickly going the way of the UN. Basically, the spokesperson of whoever has the biggest stick. Which is still the US, but that stick has been swiping at more than China in the last two decades. It comes down to China remaining the greatest marketplace, and even if their economy buckles (which isn't guaranteed), they'll remain the biggest marketplace. The US isn't going to take that away from them, and it's highly unlikely that anywhere else will establish themselves within the next two decades. India had a shot but blew it badly with their own internal policies and civil troubles.   
 
It really depends on how China handles Taiwan. Time is ticking on that one, with a hefty investment of personal respect. If they engage in military action, then they'll lose all the support and goodwill they've built up (and they've actually built up quite a bit over the last decade). If they handle Taiwan, in a peaceful manner, then they'll gain even more support from the Europe (Since the EU is likely to implode over the next decade). As the US grows ever more unstable, Russia will increase it's ties with China. It's logical. The US needs enemies just as China does. Iran is the only real target in the M.East, but it doesn't have the magical threat that Russia has for the American people (Just as Japan and the US have that magical fear for the Chinese). Any attack on China will see Russia affected since it will establish the US directly on their borders, and the US has a long history of surrounding its foes with military bases. China and Russia will become friendlier both economically and militarily. Europe will likely do the same just because the US has shown repeatedly its contempt for European nations. Both Trump and Obama made repeated media driven "mistruths" about Nato obligations, and the French aren't likely to forget the whole "Freedom Fries" crap. Britain whhich has always been Americas greatest ally is marginalised by their own choice. Never mind that the Invasion of Iraq was one of the biggest lies told during the lives of most of us 'mature' voters in Europe. All to swindle European countries into a coalition of the foolish. Europeans are likely to remember that for a long time.. even if Americans are very quick to dismiss it. The US is becoming increasingly more isolated and they've only got themselves to blame for it. Economically, diplomatically, and militarily. China just needs to relax on any miltary adventure and the US will continue to push everyone else into their camp. 
 
Lastly, as for technology, the rules have changed. We live in a consumer environment with tech companies selling not due to patriotism, but due to investment. Korean and Japan remain the dominent forces in technology, but neither of those countries are particularly favorable towards the US these days. The US hasn't been the technological master (except in certain military areas) since the 90s. Closer ties to China by Japan is unlikely but they still need a market, and the ever growing gap between rich/poor in the US doesn't really provide a good marketplace for their technology. S.Korea might trade technology for support to keep the two Koreas separate which is something China wants anyway. European nations have their niche areas for technology will continue to sit in the middle, and sell to whoever can pay. 
 
Nah. You all seem to be looking at China like the world hasn't changed since the 90s. it has. The US has lost it's Shiny white coat. China, for all it's faults, hasn't engaged in a major war since Korea. Most people don't truly remember the Cultural revolution, and their human rights excesses are ignored easily in this media driven environment. How many has the US engaged in or been connected to since Vietnam (hardly a "just" war either)? Guantanamo Bay is still more fresh in peoples minds than what's happening in any of China's special districts. People have short attention spans for violence, and the reputation of western media has dropped so low that most people just ignore it as sensationalism and propaganda. China is actually looking far more peaceful and stable than the US. Which means the financial centres in Asia (now the Britain has suicided) will continue to invest in China or it's neighbors than risk supporting an increasingly unstable US. US national debt is another reason to hesitate over lording the power of the US economy/influence against others... have you seen how high it's become? It's shocking. 
 
Perhaps you should take a long hard look at what's been happening within the US over the last two decades, and how it might appear to others? The time of western nations automatically siding with the US due to a shared culture is declining fast. To be honest, US culture & behavior, in many ways, is just as alien to Europeans as Chinese culture is. (well, to those who haven't lived in China for an extended period anyway.)
 

6 days 12 hours ago
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RandomGuy:

Core2k nice copypasta, easy to spot because of the wrong formatting, how about you write a real comment?

5 days 7 hours ago
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1 week 4 days ago
 
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The idea that Germany would be the China manufacturer and banker of the EU forever and China would have the same role in Asia forever is so ludicrous, no one ever considered the back lash, too busy making money.

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1 week 3 days ago
 
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