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Sign up with Google Sign up with FacebookQ: how many years China is behind the west?
I have been to 13 countries, developed countries. All I saw was China has much wider difference between cities and rural areas than the west. I almost cannot found too much difference in the west. something different between cities and rural areas is that rural area is not bustling like cities. Unlike China there are a lot of places are extreme porverty.
additionally, there does not have upscale society. No one show the etiquette or manners. In terms of hard ware, China is not that bad compared to developed countries. But, soft ware like behavior IS behind the west.
Do you think how many years should China take to catch up the west? half century?
Few years ago, I read an Economic report with map of China, and GDP progress of individual Provinces in the span of 40 years. 1985, 2010 and 2025.
Economist replaced Chinese Provinces with different countries around the World with matching GDP at each year.
GDP of Liaoning in 1985 was equal to Gambia, poor African country. In 2010, Liaoning GDP was equal to Portugal, poorest EU country, and in 2025, GDP of Liaoning will be equal to Sweden, one of the most prosperous EU country.
That was an Economic report on China. It might be right, or it might not, but here you have it!
andy74rc:
Process might not be that linear. So many factors play in in changing the possible scenario.
You're talking economically, right? Most of the other stuff follows an improved economy. I dunno how long but living here reminds me of life in England 35 years ago (minus the rats): blackouts and candles (loved it then - now not so much), lame-arse special effects on tv shows, young men with bouffant hairstyles, me struggling to speak the language. So.........about 35 years, I guess.
If your asking about technology. I know for a fact that most tech available to the public in America is at least 20-30 years behind what the military has access to. don't know if that answers your question.
mArtiAn:
Very true, we (Martian Tech Inc) gave silly amounts of technology to you guys back in the 50s, and where did it get us? One naked M Monroe photo and lifetime Superbowl tickets is NOT holding up your side of the bargain, guys. It is NOT. Now c'mon!
Technology may only take a few decades to catch up, but the social aspect? That would probably take even longer, several generations.
icnif: You're assuming here that China's rate of growth is sustainable. I would question that.
China will need to quickly and successfully transition to an economy that's not so heavily dependent on making cheap crap for foreign markets, and success here is by no means assured. I expect that the rate of growth will slow down sharply as the cost of labor rises, making places like SE Asia and the subcontinent more appealing to international industry.
China needs to come up with other ways of securing growth than the international investment, which had been facilitated by an artificially low currency and a huge labor pool. I know there are huge efforts being made to, among other things, encourage domestic markets and to try and build export brands (interestingly, there are Lenovo computers in my office at work, which is not in China) but that's a huge task.
I really doubt you can just look at graphs and use the current rate of growth to plot anticipated outcomes for the next 50 years.
icnif77:
Turning from supplier (with cheap labor) to a consumer might help to reach predicted Chinese GDP growth.
Maybe, we are looking in China at similar or better economic growth like in USA from 1985 to 2000.
Graphs and charts are not guarantee something will full fill for sure. They are like windsock: it tells you direction of the wind, but it doesn't tell you for sure, will it be sunny whole day or overcast for few hours.Re; the actual question. I think it's probably better to look at the other industrialized East Asian countries rather than focussing on the west.
Japan was in a roughly similar position to China about 60 years ago, wasn't it, with the double-digit growth? And S. Korea about 50 years ago? Taiwan's economic miracle came in the 60s. So that's also 50 years.
China is on position what Japan has after IIWW... I mean way of economic growth, not absolute measurement.
First was thousands years of leading, when everybody copied Chinese inventions (and some middle east inventions, but it is not a case).
Then in the 19 century China stopped, because of self-isolation from rapid growth and "industrial revolution" on the west.
In 19 and 20 century (beginning) there was economical occupation by "westerners", so nobody had interest in Chinese growth...
Then was a time of revolution, and self-isolation again.
And there we came to 80's and 90's when China begins to open for the rest of the world... and it is the "point of Japan" - first ... copying western technology, then - growth of own industrial power including engineering and inventions (this is the point where China is today). Next can be position that Japan has in 70' and 80's when Japan became synonym of high-tec and fastest development...
So... can we measure it in scale of "years"? never exactly, but sure, in some aspects maybe we can.
Can we measure it scale of speed of development? Then maybe China is not exactly "behind" the west?
It is always question of scale used to measure...
If you are only referring to Tier 1 cities in China, then Tier 1 cities in China are not behind any country in the West. If you go to Beijing, Shanghai , Guangzhou or Shenzhen and experience how modern their shopping malls and subway systems are, you will see that China is actually ahead of most western countries. A visit to the Pudong business area in Shanghai would open your eyes in self belief when you see the modern skyscrapers and the vibrant lifestyle there. And China now has the highest Rolls Royce ownership in the world in addition to becoming the biggest automotive market in the world. However, as everyone knows, China also has extreme poverty in rural areas.
I would argue quite a bit, although I wouldn't say it was entirely their fault. Countries that develop later develop faster. Makes sense, using available technology, they have access to more resources and therefore are better at imitating 1st world. However, while technology and economics can progress quickly, less so on behavior and manners and attitudes. Theses take many generations to change. How many years have the US had? 200 some odd. How many China? About only 60 years. The China in the last 60 years is nothing like the 5000 years of history they are so proud of. That's exactly what that was, it was history. China has developed incredibly fast, faster than their social norms can keep up.
My girlfriend lives in Shanghai. If she saves enough money, she'll treat herself to a new pair of heels from some designer brand. What was her life like when she was little? Concrete house behind a mom and pop store, barefoot playing in mud and trees.
So with your question about social norms, behaviors and so forth, I would guess several generations of younger people going online and putting up a firestorm of criticism, each pushing societies limits for better quality harder than the last.
5000 years
mArtiAn:
Yeh, 5000 years, that's some funny shit. Dear, dear me. Fun-ny.
TedDBayer:
and considering countries like Canada are only 200 years old.
in behavior feels a bit like in the middle age.
You cant say it for every part of the country you have to split it into areas
Behavior - no comment (middle age maybe)
technology - lets say maybe 10-20 years behind (but easier to fix)
housing - 50 years
electricity - 50 years
water - 200 years
traffic - over 90000000000
I think China is further behind than a lot of people imagine due to several factors.
Firstly we hear of continuing growth in GDP although that does seem to have slowed in recent months. Even assuming that we can trust the GDP figures, which is doubtful, we cannot just take the headline figure and assume that everything is well. China has an enormous population and if the country as whole is to grow then we need to look in terms of GDP per capita, and when we do it does not look anywhere near so good.
Secondly inrastructure, and on the face of it China has made great advances in the last twenty to thirty years. However when we look beneath the surface we see bridges that fall down because a truck drove over it, we have drainage systems tha cannot handle anything more than a shower without overflowing and flooding the surrounding areas, we have electricity supplies that can be rather sporadic,banking systems that simply do not operate like the rest of the world and so hinders growth. We have buildings that are constructed with a seventy year life span at best and look like a hundred and thirty years old after just thirty years. Manhatten has skyscrapers that are perfectly functional after eighty years, will China? Airports that sre becoming famous for the number of flight delays not just every year but almost every day. There are many other examples and I simply don't have time to list them all.
Chinas growth has been built on producing cheap goods for the rest of the world and that is coming to an end. They are trying to develop dometic markets to take up the slack but I don't believe that is going to work for one simple reason. The people associate quality with foreign goods and that is what they want to buy. The CCP try and defend domestic producers by keeping the import tarrifs high and thereby making the sales price high, as well as putting a break on the amount of foreign goods coming into the country and thereby staunching the flow of rmb out of the country. China needs to develop it's own high quality goods for its domestic market but until that happens and the people learn to trust the quality the domestic market is not going to boom in the way the government would like to see. Added to this they need to develop a high quality export market to the rest of the world to help growth and I don't see that happening any time soon.
Underpinning all of the above is the poor education standards here. School here is for one purpose only and that is to ensure a good grade in the Gaokao exams, that is not education in its true sense, more like a life time of simply remembering enough facts to pass that exam. People need to be educated not just in school subjects but in the benefits and personal satisfaction of doing a good job. They need to be educated by having open, enquiring minds, not just to copy, not just to get the job done because the hangbao was generous enough, but to appreciate that by making everything better for everyone else they also improve their own life.
Linked to education is the social attitude of people here. For a country that is built upon the idea of community I have never seen such a selfish, ignorant bunch of people. I know there are exceptions but until the mindset of people changes the country will still be held back.
In summary will China catch up with the west. I don't think they will, I think what they will do is forge their own path and the country will improve and will gain the benefits of a modern world but I think it will be a long slow process. At the moment I see China as a third world country with a first world gloss painted over the top and a lot of people think that China is improving quickly but as any professional decorator will tell you for a paint job to be really good the preparation is the most important part of it.
I don't like the housing here...it's too expensive so for that it's way way behind. Education to me lacks but I'm not sure how far behind that is since I've never been to any of the public schools or colleges here. They could be some years behind, but I'm not exactly sure of the number..
TedDBayer:
Answering another year old post for points again? What do you mean you didn't go to school here, of course you did, and don't you claim to be a teacher?