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Q: How will China react to a pro independent Taiwan Government ?
Not only the first Female President but pro independent to boot
Will China take action and in what form of action will they take ?
Uncle Xi will send a strongly worded email.
There will be some chest beating.
Living rooms across the country will expound invasion.
The end.
I read yesterday at Yahoo (I think), new Taiwan's 'edit:' president-al candidate consider China as friend.
Chinese goal is eventual unification, similar as HK. It will be done trough the commerce. The biggest Chinese mainland's blame about Taiwan goes toward USA.
philbravery:
considering th USA supplies Taiwan with most of it's military hardware change will not happen overnight
icnif77:
Yeah I agree, but consider China is USA lender, and if Chinese put foot down, it won't be pleasant (for both).
Few weeks ago, there was an article about USA attempt to supply Taiwan with some new, modernized weapon (planes, I think), and there was heavy Chinese response/warning, if USA will proceed with it.
It was a week before US ship sailed through the Spratlys, and that was the only rebuttal at Chinese Taiwan's-supply-warning USA could give. For now.
Shining_brow:
I don't know what you read, but the current president (who's been in for a few years) has been trying to strengthen ties to the mainland - and made a lot of Taiwanese VERY unhappy!
I haven't met many Taiwanese - but ALL of them have been 'Taiwanese' - I don't think a single one of them consider themselves 'Chinese'.
And, as Phil said in the OP - it is very likely that this pro-independence party is going to take power. And, thus, withdraw further from the mainland.
icnif77:
I can't find an article from two days ago. I might misunderstood, because old pres. (Ma) was saying 'China is our friend'. I thought elections were during last week, but Y! say 'pools' opened today.
OK, Tsa Ing-wen, new pres candidate said China is friend.....
DPP not against China, Chinese: Tsai Ing-wen -...
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/dpp-not-against-china-chinese-tsai-ing-wen-073004577.html
Shining_brow:
Ah, gotchya!
Yes, China is a friend - and it can stay that way (ie, you can be China, and we'll be Taiwan!)
I think it also suggests the idea of - we're not against China, but we are against the Chinese system of governorship/politics.
Uncle Xi will send a strongly worded email.
There will be some chest beating.
Living rooms across the country will expound invasion.
The end.
Mainland wants the Spratleys and most of the East China Sea - but can't hang onto it's 'own' province - HUGE face loss.
So - first there will be economic pressure (and violence towards Taiwanese companies on the mainland). Then computer manufacturers in Taiwan won't have access to the mainland's markets (or will have lots and LOTS of problems).
All while the CCP makes lots of loud noises about returning to the motherland... and all the great benefits that has (like 100% dictatorship and corruption - the very thing they accused the KMT of all those years ago).
Then they'll start flying military jets over the straight - and as they claim Taiwan as theirs, anyone who doesn't like it will be told to fk off - it's a part of China, and they can do what they want!
The new President of Taiwan will then probably have some harsh words to say, invite US support, and hold a referendum on independence (which China will say is illegal and invalid). China will also send in ships to the strait, to try to intimidate the Taiwanese.. showing a complete lack of understanding of the Taiwanese mindset - instead of being intimidating, it would only strengthen resolve and pro-independence attitudes.
A lot of this will be to push Taiwain into making a first strike, so China doesn't take the blame (cos, you know, China is NEVER to blame for anything!!!)
No matter what happens - someone's blood will be shed!
mattsm84:
I don't think it will go that far. China and Taiwan both know Taiwan is functionally independent. So long as Taiwan doesn't try to look for official recognition as an independent country the status quo stays intact, which is good enough for both China and Taiwan.
Shining_brow:
While I wouldn't disagree with that, the fact is that this 'status quo' won't remain as such.
Xi has been getting a lot more aggressive in the last couple of years, especially in the South China Sea are, and pissing off their neighbours. Taiwan is a neighbour. I'm not sure if Taiwan supports China's movements in that area (historically, they should be worried!)
Also, Tawain has had a much better relationship with Japan than the mainland, so if the Senkaku debate raises its ugly head again, who knows what could come of it.
Given that there's been a LOT more pro-independence candidates elected, AND that China is getting more aggressive, perhaps all it will take is for Taiwan to officially nay-say some of the CCP;s actions in those island issues to provoke China to do something more stupid (than it already has). Harsh words are likely to be traded!!! "Accidents" could happen. And, naturally, more threats made.
Did you know that Australians Dont need a visa to visit Taiwan ?
Also China cracked a sad when two F18s Hornets from a US carrier made a emergency landing in Taiwan last year.
taiwan troops are much better trained than chinese troops, i hope china does not find this out the hard way, it could be really embarrassing.
the most interesting thing about this china taiwan problem is the US now lets taiwan residents travel to america without a visa and no long lines at the embassy for approval, so if the crap hits the fan, the intellectuals and the money men can fly out and leave nothing but a headache for china in the aftermath. the economy and downturn want give any reason for the youth of hong kong or taiwan to have any reason to consider chinese involvement in their society, it's basically too late, the good times are over.
http://news.yahoo.com/teenage-singers-apology-sparks-china-taiwan-discor...
TAIPEI (Reuters) - A 16-year-old Taiwan singer with a South Korean girl band inadvertently shot to the top of Taiwan's election agenda on Saturday after she publicly apologized for holding a Taiwan flag, prompting anger in Taiwan as it voted for a new president.
China and Taiwan traded accusations after Chou Tzuyu, the only Taiwanese member of Twice, released a video late on Friday in which she said she feels proud to be Chinese and that there is only one China, after she held the flag on a television show.
Nessquick:
hmm, looks to me thaty someone made some quick bucks with "bright and rich future promises"
So who won ?
I havent heard a thing about the Election since election day
Is this something we are not surpose to know?
Hotwater:
Do you live in a cave? China Daily reported the result when kept going on about keeping to the 1992 consensus of one China.
Shining_brow:
Phil!!! Naughty!
Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP (pro-independence) party won.
And, the lead singer of Chthonic - Freddy Lim - also got a seat, after completely whitewashing his KMT opponent. I read up on Freddy - seems a damn good guy! (I'm not into black metal, but I'll try to get their acoustic album, and I'll take a listen to some of their later stuff).
So - DPP which is offciially pro-independence (but not radical or extreme about it), as well as a number of quite extremely pro-independence parties got seats. It could be an interesting time!!
(I'm slightly amused by the DPP's leader's name - Ing-wen.... sort of like the Chinese for 'English' :p)
I am sure that Beijing will allow Taiwan to have independence with Chinese characteristics (they can do anything they want as long as Beijing agrees).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/01/2
With facebook trolling and military drills.
