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Posts: 155

Governor

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Q: I don't understand economics. How does the RMB devluation affect foreigners?

10 years 31 weeks ago in  General  - China

 
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If you are paid in renminbi, you will get a few less dollars if you change money. If you are paid in dollars, you will get a few extra renminbi when you exchange currency. Otherwise, not a lot really (unless you are involved in international trade, then there will be some pricing implications. In theory, a devalued yuan should make Chinese export commodities cheaper when trading in USD).

expatlife26:

Should we be talking about this?

 

I'm feeling a little uncomfortable reading this discussion.

10 years 31 weeks ago
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Kaiwen:

If you are worried about discussing foreign exchange rate, I think China paranoia must have engulfed your existence.

10 years 31 weeks ago
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expatlife26:

look...please just say post something good about china. Then we can all move on. You don't want me here and I don't want to be here.

 

Just say something good and everything will be ok...please. 

10 years 31 weeks ago
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Kaiwen:

I don't know who you are and have absolutely no objection whatsoever to you contributing. FX is a comparatively tame subject. It can be discussed openly in any Chinese bank, will not cause offence to any reasonable government official and is an integral part of conducting international business. 

10 years 31 weeks ago
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10 years 31 weeks ago
 
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Posts: 1838

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If you are paid in renminbi, you will get a few less dollars if you change money. If you are paid in dollars, you will get a few extra renminbi when you exchange currency. Otherwise, not a lot really (unless you are involved in international trade, then there will be some pricing implications. In theory, a devalued yuan should make Chinese export commodities cheaper when trading in USD).

expatlife26:

Should we be talking about this?

 

I'm feeling a little uncomfortable reading this discussion.

10 years 31 weeks ago
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Kaiwen:

If you are worried about discussing foreign exchange rate, I think China paranoia must have engulfed your existence.

10 years 31 weeks ago
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expatlife26:

look...please just say post something good about china. Then we can all move on. You don't want me here and I don't want to be here.

 

Just say something good and everything will be ok...please. 

10 years 31 weeks ago
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Kaiwen:

I don't know who you are and have absolutely no objection whatsoever to you contributing. FX is a comparatively tame subject. It can be discussed openly in any Chinese bank, will not cause offence to any reasonable government official and is an integral part of conducting international business. 

10 years 31 weeks ago
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10 years 31 weeks ago
 
Posts: 2878

Emperor

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As an american foreigner I believe in my heart the most important thing for good foreigners like you and me is to conduct all proceedings in accordance with the relevant Chinese law.

 

Depreciating the RMB will improve exports and China is wise to not cow to pressure from the US government to allow the currency to hit market prices.

 

It is not our place to question such decisions and your question makes me VERY uncomfortable.

Kaiwen:

I read the OP's question as what effect it has for him/her which is fair enough as far as I'm concerned. He/she does not appear to be questioning the why's or wherefore's of the policy.

10 years 31 weeks ago
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expatlife26:

I know, it's a fair question. But as a good foreigner from american I believe that we can't beat the wumaos so I decided to join them.

 

In fact your response makes me feel VERY uncomfortable

10 years 31 weeks ago
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glydwelle:

*Sarcastic* As an Iowa farm boy, I look at your response to this and assume you must have messed up pretty terrible since all your comments on everything seem to be kowtowing to china lately. Seriously did your account get hacked or something? Who starts out ever post with "As an American"?

10 years 31 weeks ago
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10 years 31 weeks ago
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bill8899:

As a young, hot, blonde, slim, open American girl, I agree with expatlife26.

10 years 31 weeks ago
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expatlife26:

thank you, bill. I'm sure a girl with a name like bill is very beautiful.

 

The key is for us LOYAL foreigners to set the tone for discussion with loyal comments.

10 years 30 weeks ago
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10 years 31 weeks ago
 
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Shifu

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My savings will be worth less when I bring it home... So basically I didn't save as much as I thought. 

bat22:

correct u just loss 7 percent on tour savings when u go home

10 years 31 weeks ago
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10 years 31 weeks ago
 
Posts: 163

Shifu

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Your favourite (food, clothes,...etc.) from home just became more expensive to buy in China.

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10 years 31 weeks ago
 
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When i first came here it was 8.27 to 1. I felt sorry for China as it slowly slipped to 6 to 1. So in my mind it is good for China.

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Governor

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my Canadian dollar now under $5 - that means my Venti Americano in China now costs me $5.60 versus the $3.50 in 2010.

 

trying to encourage us to buy Chinese brand name products of questionable quality and zero warranty or service , versus a western name brand - good luck on that one.

 

as was said above just means western products cost even more in China.

sounds like ass backwards way to stir up the economy.

 

now in some ways a good thing as it will force Chinese brands to compete beyond price, they will have to offer service, warranties and support at no cost to encourage buying.

this will be a big pill for companies to swallow as this requires investment in people and develop a service orientated business model.

 

remember the days of 3 year warranties on laptops, helped make that choice between brands pretty easy.

 

 

AhmadKoudrah:

Chinese will never give a guaranteed product . Its in their genetics. Cheap knock offs. They have no business insight whatsoever. They have no mission statement nor a business plan besides make money now and forget about tomorrow. Watch the Turkish markets now, they are selling for cheaper prices than the Chinese and you dont even have to buy bulk. Many other markets are following. Thus the devaluation occurs as the price is the only drive for people to buy from China. Once the price is no longer the cheapest, then the edge is lost and and severe chinese market crash will happen. Devaluating the currency will help get back some of the customer base whom they lost to other cheaper markets.

10 years 31 weeks ago
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Posts: 41

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I sat next to a buyer for Walmart on one of my trips here. I asked her what kind of directives did she get from Walmart. She told me only that it must cost no more that $0.25 per item. Yeah they can buy many containers but.........

The problem with Chinese sourced goods for the US is not ability of the Chinese to make good quality items but with the buyers who come here and demand a certain price point.

bill8899:

It's Wal-Marts's fault! Ooooohhhhhhhhhhh!

10 years 31 weeks ago
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morget:

Thus, it's the consumer's fault for continuing to buy rubbish from Wal-Mart!

10 years 30 weeks ago
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10 years 31 weeks ago
 
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Governor

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Exchange rates, buying power overseas and inflation rates in China will spike to try to offset the loss of value and the loss of wealth.  Simple economics.  Money is a scarce resource.  When it devalues, there is more than needed, which spikes inflation.

 

Inflation then lowers the ability of money to buy outside its natural market, which will increase the exchange rate between countries.  In June, it was 6.15RMB to 1 USD.  Now, it's close to 6.6RMB to 1 USD.  That is a HUGE spike.

 

The market is still very weak, unstable and prone to another massive loss and correction.  Do yourself a favor and put your money in something that appreciates in value and isn't really subject to market fluctuations:  Land is a good investment, tech stocks are a good investment.  Everything else pass on now.

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10 years 31 weeks ago
 
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More to come:

 

Last year we predicted that the world had reached peak centralization and that going forward things would begin to fracture.

 

What is centralization?

 

Centralization is the process by which the world grows increasingly centralized, relying on Centralized organizations (Central Banks, sovereign governments, etc.) to determine the direction of capital and focus.

 

From an investment perspective, from 2008 to mid-2014, the primary driving force for the markets was Central Banks. In the US, the S&P 500 tracked the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet closely.

However, once the US Dollar carry trade began to blow up in mid-2014, this period ended. From that point onwards, the US Dollar was the driving force in the financial system.

 

How is this possible?

 

The US Dollar carry trade is $9 trillion in size. To put this in perspective, it is as large as the economies of Japan and Germany combined.

 

If you’re unfamiliar with the concept of a carry trade, it occurs when you borrow in one currency, usually at a very low interest rate, and then invest the money in another security, whether it be a bond, stock or what have you, that is denominated in another currency. 

 

Everyone from currency traders to emerging market corporations were doing this from 2008 onwards. Emerging Market corporations alone have over $3 trillion in US Dollar dominated bonds outstanding. It those bonds were a country it would be  the fifth largest in the world.

 

Now, a carry trade only works if the currency you borrow stays flat or falls in value. If the currency begins to rally, you blow up VERY quickly as the debt (the money you borrowed) quickly becomes more expensive or less serviceable.

 

As a result of this, when a carry trade begins to blow up, a feedback loop quickly hits as those who borrowed in the original currency either A) default B) restructure or C) return the money, forcing the currency even higher which triggers more defaults, restructuring and margin calls.

 

This is why when the US Dollar began to rally in mid-2014, it went nearly vertical.

 

 

The first wave of the US Dollar carry trade blowing up crushed commodities and the emerging markets that rely on them for growth. I’m talking about Brazil, Russia, and the like.

 

However, it is the second wave that will be even more damaging. That wave began last year in August when China was forced to devalue the Yuan against the US Dollar. At that point the US Dollar bull market was no longer forcing individual asset classes to collapse… it was imploding one of the largest economies on the planet.

 

This crisis has only just begun.

 

The 1997 Asian Crisis was triggered by Thailand devaluing the baht. Thailand’s economy is the 30th largest in the world. And it nearly blew up all of Asia.

 

China, by way of contrast, is either the second or third largest economy in the world depending on how you measure it. And it is now actively devaluing the Yuan. Just based on this alone, you can expect this crisis to be significantly larger than the 1997 Asian Crisis.

 

However, this is just China. Remember there are $9 trillion in US Dollars floating around in various carry trades. So China’s devaluation will be just the tip of the iceberg as every fiat currency in the world derives a portion of its value based on where the US Dollar trades. What’s happening in China will be rippling throughout the system taking down entire countries/ currencies/ and stock markets.

 

Another Crisis is coming. Smart investors are preparing now.

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10 years 31 weeks ago
 
Posts: 41

Governor

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Walmart, the largest retailer in the world! Home of 5  the worlds richest people, all 1% er's.

If you think for one minute they dont control what gets imported or sold in the US markets, think again. They ran out all the mom and pop stores where ever they built. Went for the price points only and not top quality. Now they are leaving over 160 cities where they destroyed the local markets.

 

They try hard to control everything, from low wages and bennys to taxes they pay and yes, import quality.

 

Open your eyes and you can see who really controls the US. Go Bernie!!!!

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10 years 30 weeks ago
 
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China Warns Soros Against Starting A Currency War: "You Cannot Possibly Succeed, Ha, Ha"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/26/2016 - 08:33

Soros’s war on the renminbi and the Hong Kong dollar cannot possibly succeed — about this there can be no doubt. Reckless speculations and vicious shorting will face higher trading costs and possibly severe legal consequences. And just as proved in the yuan exchange rate case, the Chinese government has sufficient resources and policy tools to keep the overall economic situation under control and cope with any external challenges.”

Hairy times for Rmb holders. Going to US$ with all my ''embi's''surprise under one presumption: 'Gold spot is expected to dip, with US$ reaching opposite-upper channel....' 

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10 years 30 weeks ago
 
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