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Q: If push comes to shove with Taiwan and Japan...who will side with whom?
Taiwan has economic and defense ties with the USA, so has Japan. If push comes, who will side with whom? The USA, China...
It won't. Both of these governments appear to be moderately reasonable, and any conflict between them will be worked out. It is in their best interests to do so.
A better question might be, would Taiwan accept mainland China's help?
Grumpy:
I agree. And if it comes to survival, Taiwan would accept anyone's help I think.
No-one will side with anyone.
Taiwan and Japan both depend heavily on American overt or not so overt military protection. I doubt the USA would want to be forced to pick a preferred friend, especially as whatever choice they were to make would mean an openly hostile China.
However, as others, as well as myself have said, this isn't going to come to open hostilities.
GuilinRaf:
Agreed. That is partially why there is so much huffing and puffing in the press but none of this will lead to actual warfare.
Grumpy:
One problem Hugh... America is legally obligated to defend Japan against any "aggression or attack" no matter who fires the first shot by a mutual defense treaty.
Taiwan will be side with china,USA will be aside with Ja'pan of course,but all for their own interests, There have no permanent friends and permanent enemies, only have permanent interests,
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mattsm84:
That's true of every country. It's called realpolitik. However, even if Japan ends up with the island, the US still won't end up with the oil as Japan has its own energy needs. Yet at present US interests align more with Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam. This is because all of these countries require that the adjacent sea lanes must remain open. Right now China is looking to reclassified the busiest sea lanes in the world exclusive economic areas (EEZ). Even if the US has no permanent allies, China's actions have placed it at odds with its neighbors.
LAR:
Taiwan will not side with China. Drop the arrogant "of course". You people and the South Koreans use these words waaaaaaaaaaaaaay too much! :(
Your post, Sokie, implies that Taiwan is not Chinese. Are you sure this is what you mean to convey?
Brenda57:
Tianwan belong to china of course,just looks like a rebellious children now.but we have the same target lets Japan get out of the Diaoyu island
GuilinRaf:
Didn't say it was, didn't say it wasn't. Just pointing out the way Sokie phrased the question.
giadrosich:
Yep. Those crazy, rebellious Nationalists! Teenages do silly things, but eventually they grow up and acknowledge the wisdom of their parents. 
Actually, I think that if the PRC gets more heavily involved, the ROC will step aside. Having the mainland in control of those islands isn't in Taiwan's interest because they don't get any of the oil, have to pay for access to the waters for its fishermen, and has to change the route by which goods are allowed to reach the island. Look at a map. In order to have goods shipped into Taiwan from the east, ships have to pass right by those islands. That's why Taiwan has dispatched its coast guard while the PRC has remained inactive. It has to resolve this issue between itself or Japan now, or it gets gets nothing and risks becoming isolated.
They are both allies of the US so nobody will get any heavy help from the USA
If Taiwan gets possession then China keeps face because as we all know Taiwan belongs to China (sarcasm)
I doubt the USA will step in to the mess at all. They'll talk, but they can't afford another military endeavor or risk damaging ties with China. I think their involvement will stop at strongly worded statements.
At the same time, I don't think either Japan, China or Taiwan really want any real conflict in this. I'm guessing there'll be a lot of threats and then cooler heads will prevail - like an agreement on revenue sharing for the resources in the area, or an equitable division of the islands...though you'd think that something like that would've happened by now in places like Kashmir...
Anyway, as an expat I couldn't possibly take anyone's side, everyone makes a good point and I think my country (Canada) is going to stay well clear of getting involved.
mattsm84:
It'd agree if this had the possibility of turning into a land war with an extended counter insurgency effort, but this would be navies and air forces so their are a number of things to consider. To begin with the US actually has several policy dictated incentives to getting involved. Remember that China also lays claim to several island in the south China sea, and is actively pursuing an effort to extend its exclusive economic zones into what are presently international waters. This has alienated several of China's neighbors, specifically Vietnam and the Philippines, as they dispute China's ownership and are dependent on the trade that flows through that corridor. The US for its part has expressed an interest in acting as a counter weight to an ascendant China, if only to keep the balance of power maintained. If China were to try to exert control over those islands through force of arms, and open war were to begin between China and a neighboring country, and the US decided that it would not get involved, it would essentially void a large portion of America's foreign policy maneuvers over the last two decades.
Further, the US already has the upper hand on China in a strategic sense. Naval warfare is about a few key things. First, you must deny your enemy access to the area. China, it is assumed, has an impressive submarine fleet and anti-ship missile system, and it could potentially deny the US access to the south China sea but for fact that the US navy, through the benefit of its diplomatic alliances, has already deployed over half of its fleet in this part of the world. Second, you must concentrate your forces to claim superiority. "Forces" in this context means Carrier groups and planes specifically. While the area in question is simply too large for either side to ever really claim true superiority immediately, the US's advantage in both the quality of its ships and planes and numbers of its ships and planes can make its enemy a fugitive in the field. Think of it like having the larger stack in a poker game. Essentially the US can minimize its costs while driving up the costs of its enemy. So long as it doesn't suffer a major reversal it will eventually claim superiority or force its opponent to the bargaining table. Failing that the third thing is to use superiorly to place economic pressure on your enemy.
While you're certainly right to say that the US has considerable economic reasons to stay out of any potential conflict, there are reasons that it might want to involve itself. So far Leon Penetta has more or less told both China and Japan that for them the US is a known unknown, something that you know you don't know, and that they should not to place too much of a wager on the US doing one thing or another because the consequences for being wrong would be dire.
Things won't turn into a shooting war. Everyone seems to know where the red line is. However, I doubt Taiwan would sit idly by while the mainland used military muscle to enforce it's bogus territorial claims. If the mainland would do that to another, more powerful island country, what's to stop Taiwan from being next?
They're aware of that and would probably side with the US alliance (probably passive assistance) if things got out of hand.
What's the situation, specifically? Eastern Asian political relations are highly context dependent. It's hard to make any generalizations out here.
China, North Korea, and if the situation escalates probably Pakistan and Russia.
On the other side Vietnam, the Phillipins, Japan, South Korea, and if things escalate maybe the U.S.A., India, and Australia.
I hope it does not get to this, because of the foreigners that get stuck here who knows what will happen. Many of us get confused with being Americans.
