My Chinese repeatedly warn me of this and in practice, I must lamentably say that it would appear to be true.  First of all, I often hear the story about the dayworkers going home to their villages in need of money but this could also be a blatant excuse.  Nonetheless, in the gated community where I live there was a spike in assaults last year right before Spring Festival and considering that this gated community never has assaults, it was very suprising indeed.

Thus, my own personal experience is that there is credence to what you write.

It would explain why the muggings increased in San Li Tun last month.

People need money to buy tickets and things like that and instead of saving their money of working hard for it some of the scum bags try to take things that aren't theirs. So yes, you should always be a little more cautious before the start and end of Spring Festival

I would imagine that with the large masses of humanity packing planes, buses, trains, trucks, cars, pedicabs and scooters, on their way to who knows where, pick-pocket and con artists would not miss the chance to relieve a few of these travelers of their hard earned cash.

Of course, it is probably not in this area alone, but there are all kinds of ways to take advantage of the holiday, such as robbery, burglary, extortion, home invasions, fraud and money scams.

How many people are outright robbed? Or come back from visiting Ma and Pa in Podunk, and find their house in Shanghai has been ransacked? How many will be sold fake train or bus tickets from scalpers? How many college aged girls never arrive at their destination because they are kidnapped? How many fake "toll" collections are extored by local police?

In a country as populous as China, you know there has to be crime spikes during the holidays, but unfortunately, we, the general public, will never hear about it.