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Posts: 136

Governor

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Q: Moving back to the countryside?

Do you reckon that Chinese people will start to want to move back to the countryside when there is more money? That's the trend that I've seen in Europe, that a lot of richer people prefer living in the countryside where there is more space, in nice big houses, etc. 

 

If yes, how long do you think it'll take?

11 years 43 weeks ago in  General  - China

 
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Posts: 205

Shifu

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If China decides to actually develop the countrysides then some people will may move back. At this point though China seems to want to move more and more people to the city.  You have to remember there is huge difference in the standard of living for Chinese (education and health care are particularly terrible in rural areas) from rural and urban areas.  That is not the case so much in the United States and Europe. Add to that that culturally speaking China is a hierarchical society and people from the countryside tend to rank quite low in general (maybe lowest?) so even if development happens its not a given people will flock back.   

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11 years 43 weeks ago
 
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Emperor

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It'll take some years, before that start top happen. Right now the flow is country side -> city -> Canada (or other Western paradise) Of course the complete escape is for the rich, those who are now forced to live in the cities to work and earn a living, will perhaps at some point want to move to cheaper, more quiet places. 

 

There is a couple of factors that could contribute in different ways to this. First of all, Chinas urbanization is still going strong. 200 million more people are planned to be urbanized in the next 10 years. 

Is the village really a place to go back to, polluted fields, rivers and poor infrastructure ? Perhaps one day the small towns will be upgraded, but then it will be for the rich who wants a big garden they will never use. 

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11 years 43 weeks ago
 
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Emperor

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In some ways, it's already happening. Large cities all have recently created new districts. Those districts usually have better facilities, better housing, parks, planned development, etc... in what used to be farmlands. You often have compounds with villas there too. I don't know how often is it so, but those villas looks like 2nd or 3rd residence, or just an investment that stays empty.

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11 years 43 weeks ago
 
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Emperor

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The Chinese government always said that on the long term they intend to move nearly 90% of the population into cities to free more land for agricultural purposes, obviously a urban resident uses much less space than a rural resident, even when much wealthier.

 

There is a plan to make one huge urban conurbation out of the Pearl River Delta, a megacity comprised of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Guangzhou, Foshan, Zhongshan, Zhuhai, Macau and other minor cities, it should be home for nearly 80 million peoples, all of its residents would have access to public services in any of the cities.

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11 years 43 weeks ago
 
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From the manufacturing side, i have alot of close contact with migrant workers. And its already happening. Most factory workers know full well that they will NEVER be able to afford to buy and live in the major cities. So they dont. They sleep in dorms, save up for years and move back. I have worked with both huge factories in the tens of thousands of workers as well as smaller factories, and for the past few years its getting harder and harder to find people. There are countless other factors as well mind you but one of them certainly is the fact that factory wages are rising in lower tier cities and more factories are moving to cheaper rural locations. So for many workers its worth it to make 20% less but get to stay with their families and not have to pay for two housholds.

Full disclosures

1: this doesnt mean the tide is turning, or even the numbers are shrinking, just that some are going back

2: This is often used to mask the fact that most factory aged chinese workers are lazy as hell and coddled and want to work in a high tech company sitting around putting on iphone screens. Chinese now think they are too good for factories, and good for them i guess but its a never spoken about yet major reason for the worker shortages.

3: I hate all migrant workers . Wish they would all leave and never return.

Scandinavian:

pardon my ignorance, but do migrant workers living in a dorm actually count in the stats. Isn't the gubbermint looking at hukou registrations ? 

 

Naturally their movement will be a factor in how populated the country side will look and feel. 

11 years 43 weeks ago
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mike695ca:

@scan, from what i have read it has included these types. This is why there always seems to be such a huge window of an estimate rather than exact numbers.

11 years 43 weeks ago
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DrMonkey:

For 2., it's something I hear fairly often around me, either people saying they are too good for those jobs (but are high-school drop-outs from lower middle class families...), either from bosses complaining about recruitment issues :)

11 years 43 weeks ago
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