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Q: What do you think China will be like in 20 years time?
It will be without a doubt a super economic power among other things. Maybe in a military sense will also be among the top ones, and in scientific developments I am not so sure. In real concern for its people, and respect to human life (instead of an infinite greed for power and money), at best will continue the same.
In twenty years, the current crop of spoiled kids will be getting ready to run the show. God help us all.
Super power!!!!
And may be they won't be needing any of us to teach them anymore.
The current projections that like to be put in the news are completely wrong.
In 20 years, a lot of businesses will have moved their manufacturing bases out of China (already happening - which is why China's growth rate and GDP "expected" to be over 10% has dropped down to 8% and will continue to drop). Most of the investment here is being done to develop retail and consumer markets.
China will need to relax it's trade restrictions and allow more foreign goods to be imported and they will need to take MAJOR steps to switch from a manufacturing based economy to something else. The problem here is the time in which they need to do it. China MUST have domestic brands capable of competing in a global market, and to get into the global market with actual goods (not Mardi-gras beads and cheap toys), they will need to open the doors to imports. The problem here is that given a choice, Chinese consumers will almost always select a foreign brand over a domestic if the cost difference isn't too great.
The RMB will also need to become a listed tradable currency.
Any of these factors will halt China's rapid growth rate.
So here's my prediction: Within 20 years, the government will create a big campaign about how foreign influence is corrupting traditional Chinese culture, use this as the reasoning to create more restrictions, and partially shut itself off from the world. Just enough to keep a steady cashflow coming in and to give them more time to develop a better domestic consumer market based on Chinese goods. They will either withdraw or (more likely) be kicked out of the WTO for violations (there's already a mounting list, always because China is special and developing, so they don't need to adhere to contracts or play by the rules) and it will become increasingly difficult for foreigners to come here. The Chinese who have money will leave in droves (also already happening), leaving China pretty much like you see it now. There will of course be more construction, as this shows "progress", but I don't foresee any major changes to how things are now, other than more rules and restrictions.
Just my opinion, and as always, I welcome thoughts and debate.
techezee:
You summed it up pretty correctly, although I would debate somethings like shutting itself off from the rest of the world and being kicked out of the WTO. I do believe we will see things in the likes of a recession cooming from housing and banking practices that will gain attention from other countries to bail them out and they probably will unless the rmb is not appreciated as it should be so the currency exchange will be on the up and up. As for collagen, a Super Power Really, some say Russia is a Super Power, but really their a Super Fizzle. LOL
It will be the country of homosexuals !!!!! All family here born only boys , so , this will be the result ! If you look into a subway, most of peoples are men already ! Less women ! Homeland of homesexuals !
