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Q: What do you think will happen with the Hong Kong election student protests?
Will it get ugly or have a diplomatic resolution?
Nothing. They have no military strength. No political clout. There is nothing HK'ers can do to stop it. Beijing will impose it's will.
Almost:
Really? And the world will do nothing? How many Hong Konger's do you know. I lived there for 3 years and those people are not very "harmonious" so to speak!
xinyuren:
You haven't thought this through. What can the world do? HK is Chinese sovereign territory. HK has no military with which to rebel. What are their options? It is clear who is in charge in this case. By law, Beijing can do what it wants and any country that intervenes is basically initiating an act of war.
icnif77:
It's the West, who provoked such drastic 'Bj's switch' on HK autonomy, IMO.
xinyuren:
@icnif - I highly doubt that. Beijing never intended to keep that promise. They were counting on HK slow assimilation with the mainland culture. They absolutely cannot allow HK to thrive in democracy. This would mean the death of the party. HK wants a democracy. Beijing can't allow it. The magical "West" (who in the West?) had little to do with it. It's natural to want freedom. Nobody wants to be kept on a chain. You sound like those insecure Chinese who blame everything on the "West". Yes, it's the "West's" fault. Kanye West?
icnif77:
USA mostly. Western countries as 'West'.
Polarization in World is happening, as China, Russia (& other 'we're sick of US influence' countries) and Western countries (USA, Canada, EU, Middle East) on the other side.
IMO, that (HK changes) were provoked/instigated out of 'Up-yours' files bag. Many underestimate 'his steal', but US reaction after he was gone from Havaii tells me he grabbed 'big deal of docs.'.
I might be wrong!
xinyuren:
The world has always been polarized. That's why we have constant warfare. HK's thinking has never changed. They enjoyed a level of freedom under UK leadership that they never had before. You think they want to go back? You seem to put a great deal of stock in conspiracies. This isn't a conspiracy. It's just common sense. Nobody, after seeing the alternatives, wants Communist rule except the ruling party and those who can benefit from it. Most people want to be masters of their own destiny (no matter how ill advised) Face it, it doesn't take too much outside influence for them to decide what they want. My own eyes and ears tell me the huge difference between Hong Kong and the mainland. Are you saying the Mainland is a better place to live than HK?
icnif77:
No, I'm not saying Mainland is better. My opinion is/was Mainland could/will learn a great deal of things out of HK, except '(changing) policy'!
Thing with HK is, 'nobody's asking, what HK wants/likes'!
HK is China, as you said above. I'm convinced, change of (politik) in HK is mistake.
Mainland (CCP) isn't afraid of 'bad (democracy) example' in HK.
Mainland wants more control there, and about reasons for that, we can argue with loads of beer, and we'll never get to the same point.
Mainland is too big to be afraid of anybody in the World.
sam239:
"Mainland is too big to be afraid of anybody in the World."
That's the hubristic mentality that will come back at them, if others' countries pasts are any clue. I think you said yourself icnif that the mainland/part should be learning from HK, not imposing its way on HK. Really quite arrogant of it to be doing so, but I guess they enjoy being dictators. But the mentality, "we are too powerful to be afraid of anybody, and you must therefore submit" invites resistance. Not head-on resistance but subversion. Ever read the story about David and Goliath?
icnif77:
@Sam: I exaggerated with '…anybody in the World'.
My point was 'Mainland is too big to be afraid of HK', as xin said above. I don't think, 'Mainland is afraid….' is the reason for changes in HK policy.
xinyuren:
If the HK begins to enjoy democracy, the mainland is watching. So is Taiwan. From that point on, the clock is ticking... There would likely be rebellion and chaos. If the party isn't afraid, they should be.
xinyuren:
@sam - I wouldn't call it arrogance. HK is China! HK has no more legal means to become democratic than Texas has to become it's own country. Beijing is using common sense. It can't afford disputes within its borders as well as with it's neighbors. If I am Xi, I would be forced to do the same thing.
sam239:
Xin, well it'd be total arrogance for Washington to impose its will on Texas, exactly the same here. Humans all over the planet want to have a basic degree of self-determination, it's central to what makes us tick.
xinyuren:
It's not exactly the same. Washington is a democracy and Texas has an equal vote regarding it's future. In a democratic system, the government can't impose their will upon states without law. Last time I checked, China isn't a democracy. So how is this the same? The natural part of ruling in China is to impose their will. That is what the central government does in every province, pretty much. You can't compare apples to oranges. Anyways, if Texas decided it wanted to become a communist nation, I guarantee you Washington DC would impose her will. Like a boss, they would.
Lord_hanson:
Texas does have a legal right to be their own country. They are part of a federation with their own laws. I personally think nothing will happen. China wants to control HK. It is where the officials hide their money after all.
xinyuren:
@Lord - you need to check your laws. Yes, Texas is part of a federation: The United States of America, which annexed it in the 1800's. True, Texas used to be it's own independent federation , but that was then and this is now, and they have no more legal right to separate than any of the other states. Texans like to talk big talk about this, but basically, it's just talk. Just like the talk in HK.
I want more New Zealand's butter!
http://answers.echinacities.com/question/are-student-protest-hk-differen...
laowaigentleman:
If the commies come and ruin Hong Kong, you'll have to eat Chinese farmer jizz curd and call it butter :-p
You know, there is a way for HK to keep its relative independence and democracy - though it'd be a really nasty move, that would be incredibly provocative...
If the banks in HK made all the CCP's hidden money become even more hidden, and then close up shop (or threaten to). Ie, take the money, run, and then go 'bankrupt'.
Another nasty option would be to publish all the banking records and dates - and prove the corruption of all those corrupt politicians.
TBH, if Beijing tries imposing too much of its will on the banking and commercial investments in HK, there will be subtle (and perhaps not so subtle) suggestions that that's exactly what will happen!
xinyuren:
Do you know where HK gets all its water, energy, and other necessities from? I give you one guess. This is an umbilical cord that can't be broken. Pulling dirty tricks like that will not advance their cause. There really isn't anything they can do except peacefully march. World opinion may shame Beijing. But I doubt it will change their decision.
expatlife26:
nah they have power stations in HK...a few of them. They at least can generate some of their own power though water they do buy from the mainland.
Shining_brow:
I do agree that in the end, BJ will lord it all over HK, and there isn't a damn thing that's likely to change it... I was just fantasizing :p
Almost:
Very clever indeed, but your tactic would only be good for sending a message and not solving the problem. Beijing would counter with some ploy of their own and things would escalate into an endless cycle of tit-for-tat dirty tricks. The result would only be increased mistrust and hostility - with no permanent solutions
Once you have a taste of freedom and order... it is hard to settle for less.
It is pretty much impossible unless you put a ton of fear into people... and China can't really do that without a HUGE major backlash.
They just have to put up with it.
xinyuren:
I set my VPN to Hong Kong in tribute. Little good that will do. Also little good will their marching do. I foresee a mass migration.
Lord_hanson:
The fact there is no room for migration has saved them so far.
Shining Brow mentioned a ploy that would start a nasty tit-for-tat dirty games war, but it would send the right message... Hong Kong could be the tail to wag the dog economically.
I posted something here, and it have been *deleted* without any signals, without any reasons, and only several day after. WTF is that ?!
The post I wrote said that: HK students won't be listened, with little media coverage. A broken beer bottle will be showed as a proof that those students are hooligans, misled by some fuzzy but foreign interests. They might be accused to be lazy and just trying to enjoy the end of the summer out of school. The student's best hope is a lot of self-control and pacifism, to avoid giving any chance to be discredited. Beijing won't budge anyway, because they are scared of a domino effect if they givin-in, and they have the advantage of strength. Beijing will just wait that everybody gets tired and go home. I don't foresee much violence, it's bad publicity for both side. The best things the people can do is not giving up, and being exemplary in pacifism. They can display *every day*, even if it takes years, there message. Humor will do much good, as far as they don't give up. no demonstration... But things like wearing messages that nobody can miss. Showing that nobody is forgetting and willing to forget. Showing who broken premises.
Hong Kong is just an over protect Chinese city with a border that requires an ID card or a passport, it's not another country, its a Chinese city in China no matter how history makes its seem, probably in reality apart of Guangdong province. Beijing has got this city in the palm of its hand. So let the Chinese students in Hong Kong protest all they want. BTW I refuse to refer to them as Hong Kong students
DrMonkey:
If people are used to have representation power, then they will *of course* try to keep such power. Plus, they were promised that they would not loose representation power, and now the premise is somehow forgotten. The truth is, HK somehow gives a "bad example" to the rest of the country by having right of vote and multiple parties, and they get harmonized. Nobody said HK is not China, and the point of protesters is their representative powers. The "HK is China" discourse is completely out of topic, but it's an easy way to win the opinion in the Mainland.
RiriRiri:
And here is exactly where the problem is.
People can say whatever they want, refer to whatever piece of pseudo-constitution (sorry, Basic law), but fundamentally, for all intents and purposes, Hong Kong is a fucking country - sorry a fucking tax heaven, composed of people with their own lifestyle, their own language, their own everything, that they do not want to share with their neighbors.
But Beijing is used to have it its way, with its own little deluded way to crook reality, call a black cat a white cat and expect people to see the same nonexistent things as they do, at gunpoint if necessary.
And even when people accepted their "1 country two systems" doctrine, they couldn't even go about it the patient way or with mere economic pressure, which would be the clever way to push people to submission. Oh, no, too much brainwork, they just had to fuck it up, launched the most stupid false flag demonstration in the history of manipulation, and piss people off for good.
DrMonkey:
@icnif "Democracy" does not means "USA". It's a common argument to equal the two and then go on all that is wrong with USA, to finally conclude that democracy is not for China. Why not picking Sweden, Norway, or Switzerland ? They are democracies too...
Almost:
Actually you are correct in quite a few respects...China has been more stable, predictable, and profitable than America over the last two decades and even more honorable (in the international arena - because of Bush's fabricated war in Iraq). So although they still wear the "Communism" label, they have been more successfully as an economic power - growing three times faster than the West over the last 20 years. If Xi cleans up the corruption, China may become an admirable model in the world -especially so if they allow free elections in Hong Kong. So while Hong Kong could become a "crisis" it also presents a fantastic opportunity and turning point for Beiijing.
America has already demonstrated that the wealthy can still control the country even with elections that appear to be free and honest on the surface. The trick is to secretly sponsor all the candidates and then buy off the clown that wins.
ironman510:
Say whatever you want, but please don't say the name BUSH, I hate this man more then any other man in the world.
Actually there is something to be said for Beijing's point of view. While Communism is not the shining example of enlightened rule, it is quite a bit more stable than what China could become if HK continued to prosper under democratic representation. As much as everyone wants to see a freer form of government in China, few really think about the implications of such a change. It would almost certainly mean chaos. 1.4 billion people who don't know a flippin' thing about a democratic system suddenly are asked to take responsibility for their own future? Can you imagine that? 20 years of economic gains (at the cost of the environment) suddenly reversed?
China has a very small window of opportunity before them. Pretty soon, society will be too old and they will have to start investing in social security. They are approaching a point where it's military can be seen as a threat to the U.S. In between those events, they must act. And with no real allies, Beijing needs to unify it's kingdom, not fragment it. Do I see China as expansionist? Not really, but I do see a nation with a big chip on it's shoulder and they are just itching to unleash their anger.
Anyways, in the service of keeping this country together, HK will have to wait for it's freedom.
DrMonkey:
The argument about Chinese society not being reading for a civil society (elections) is always circular.
A) Chinese society is not mature enough for elections, because they never had it, people have no sense of civil responsibility, they would vote for the first smooth talking crook, etc.
B) To create a mature civil society, people have to learn it by experimenting it. If people never exercise representative power, they will never get used to it.
So A excludes B, and the absence of B reinforces A. It's quite convenient, when you are the guy with all the power, isn't it ? You have a self-reinforcing argument to keep things as they, to keep people irresponsible of their own society. The only responsibility allowed is to blindly follow what the boss says without asking too much questions. It's not a fatality, you can transition little by little, starting from very local representative power. Other Asian countries did it just fine...
xinyuren:
I think you missed my point, Dr.
From Beijing's standpoint, I think now is the worst time to destabilize China. They should be running on all cylinders now. There is no question that a transition could be done, my argument is that they want to control the timing of such an event (if it is to occur at all). It is clear China wants to assert itself in the East. They don't need a revolution now.
DrMonkey:
The thing is, there is *always* an argument to not do bold things at home. It's not about revolution in China, nobody wants it, and for good reasons. It's about keeping things as they were promised to be in HK. And democratic powers seems to just scare the shit out of Beijing, even in a slow transitional way, an evolution rather than an revolution. I believe that this will never been in Bejing's agenda, there always will be some reason to monopolize the power and keeping the "People's Republic" out of the hands of the actual people ^^
xinyuren:
Perhaps so. I believe they had no intention of keeping their promise with HK. Perhaps they will never loosen the reins. But this is outside the scope of my comment. I was just merely observing that in order for Beijing to succeed with their Asia objectives, they need to keep HK as well as Taiwan in check.
RiriRiri:
Of course there will never be a good time, because there will always be a good excuse.
And if there isn't, bad sophists will make some, no problem.
I can accept Chinese buying that because they don't know better, but anyone else..
xinyuren:
There is talk in some corners that the CCP does have plans to transition to another form of government. I've even heard Chinese statesmen allude to the idea. Just keep in mind, China isn't like any other country. It is literally the largest government in the recorded history of governments. A transition will be slow and risky. A recent Asian country's transition comes to my mind (Malaysia?). There were mass atrocities against the outgoing communist party. China aint Malaysia. I think there is a fair chance of revolution and bloodshed. It would probably be a mess and a huge number of card carrying Communists suddenly suffering a change in fate. I can't even imagine what would happen.
RiriRiri:
Once upon a time, the Central Gov even tried to ask people about their opinion through internet polls about what should be the focus of the reforms. Hell there were even discussions and comments made possible. On an official sponsored website. Now, guess what people voted for, hands down? This didn't sound like a good time?
It was 2010. In 2014, Internet doesn't even look like Internet anymore, all news outlets carry the daily mandatory nationalistic propaganda that truly seem to take us 60 years back. Even comments and social reactions are obviously made up. Guess which side won.
Look, you can tell me everything you want, fact is, most of the good reasons you invoke have been created by the ones denouncing them in the first place. Ergo, there will always be a good reason not to do things, and never a good time.
xinyuren:
By your tone, it appears you think I am a Beijing apologist. In that case, you have missed the whole spirit of my arguments. I am speaking from a politically neutral position of common sense. You already know my stance. Communism to Democracy will only trade one set of problems for another. I am neither for nor against China changing. There is no way to predict how I will personally be impacted so I have no dogs in the race.
I'm just making a particular observation that Beijing's "logic" makes sense in view of their current strategy. To change now would be inviting a host of unpredictable results that make it very difficult to plan for. If I'm right about their objectives, this makes sense. At the same time, surely they must see that their current political alignment has a short lifespan. Things will change, one way or the other.
icnif77:
I agree with xin's points about 'why not democracy in HK'.
How is any Western 'democracy' better than Chinese Communistic system?
- democratic system is open: 'we can vote...' or 'whoever's got more finance will get elected'?;
- democracy control their military and police by civilians? CIA, NSA is controlled by who? Maybe by aliens..
- there's no interference in other countries policies?
- our banking sector is under tight FED's control;
....and so on.
Are you all promoting 'democracy rocks over totalitarian state'. My T-shirt printing machine is ready….
DrMonkey:
@icnif "Democracy" does not means "USA". It's a common argument to equal the two and then go on all that is wrong with USA, to finally conclude that democracy is not for China. Why not picking Sweden, Norway, or Switzerland ? They are democracies too...
xinyuren:
Please don't use tunnel vision and just think of America as a democracy. America is also the world's leader, a Superpower, and all the responsibility and problems that come with it's primacy. Any government that held this position would face the sort of problems and criticism that icnif77 likes to highlight. These are not necessarily problems with democracy. These are problems that occur when a world power (American/British) asserts itself. Interfering with foreign policies, foreign wars, corruption of world financial systems.... these are all issues that only the nations who tackle the world's concerns face. When you are a country that has insulated itself from the world and it's problems, it is easy to place blame and throw stones.
Dr. Monkey made some great comments that just vanished without any explanation. Does this censorship happen often here and what was it he said that was "wrong" or unacceptable?
Xin: How exactly has the autonomy that HK has enjoyed for the 17 years since the hand over threatened the CCP's control over the mainland? The only places on the mainland that seem to want greater autonomy seem to want it for ethnic and cultural reasons, and they likely would continue to want greater autonomy matter what happens in HK. So, if HK hasn't destabilized that mainland why should we assume it would in the future?
Also, do you really not consider China to be expansionistic? You are aware of their territorial claims in the South China Sea, aren't you? How is declaring that you are the rightful owner of you're neighbor's territory, and your right to dominate the busiest shipping lane in the world anything but expansionistic?
xinyuren:
Wow, I thought this was Almost's question, yet answers are being directed to me? I think I explained just about my whole opinion on the topic, I'll elaborate.
I believe the CCP is approaching a window: a point in time when their military is intimidating enough to face off with the U.S. and before the time of the inevitable leveling of the economy, aging of the population, and other barriers develop. Within this window of opportunity, they will attempt to assert themselves as the King of the East. I think the territorial claims are a prelude to this. I don't view it as expansion as much as an attempt to change the sphere of influence. If you think of the S.China Sea in terms of influence, you will find a Western nation, USA, has significant "territory". I believe China wants that to be greatly reduced.
China has an historic chip on it's shoulder. It really believes the world owes it it's claim. This is the main motivation for their actions, to take it's place as the pearl of the East. They need to be the dominant power in Asia. Their face demands nothing less. On the democracy issue in HK, it's not just about HK. Democracy in HK is not the bigger issue. Having just issued an invitation Taiwan to enter into the same pact as HK, Xi has revealed his hand a little. The timing was very curious (Xi to Taiwan). I think it reveals that He wants to get his ducks lined up for a move. But that is another thing.
This point is: If HK is living it up with free representation, then Taiwan would also want such indulgences if they join the 2-n-1 setup Xi is offering. If both Taiwan and HK have it, it won't be long until it trickles down to the mainland. Why do you think only the ethnic minorities want democracy? Are not the Chinese emigrating in droves? Blocking the internet is not a good enough insulator. Pretty soon, there will be democracy with Chinese characteristics. HK is just one link in the chain.
How is this different from before, you ask? Before, the mainland tourism to HK wasn't as it is now. If HK democratizes, what will the mainlanders start to think as they come over for their milk powder and medical care? Wouldn't it seem to them more and more like traveling to another country? Like Chinese people who belong to the mainland, but who are getting "preferential" treatment? This is just one of the reasons why it's a big issue now. Another reason is just incidental. The date for the deadline just happens to be approaching. The answer was always going to be No.
Edit: I think I need to emphasize the importance of the CCP's window of opportunity. If the CCP fails to meet their objectives within that time frame, they are done. game over. The party can't continue under the many pressures that will face them without a victory in Asia.Almost:
Dr. Monkey and I had both posted explanations about this that were deleted. In 2012 former Prez Hu Jintao made it clear that the party planned to to replace Hong Kong with Shanghai as the financial engine of China. This is a pipe dream since investors around the world will never truly trust the manipulations of the Shanghai index. So no matter how much they try to duplicate Hong Kong in Shanghai it just won't happen.
If Beijing gets too aggressive, the Hanseng only needs to shut down for a week to demonstrate that they account for 30% of China's revenues. Screwing with HK is economic suicide and a diplomatic resolution is the only way for everyone to save face.
Also remember that since 1978, the entire world has been watching China at the UN, WTO, and with all their trade agreements to see if they honor their commitments. In Hong Kong they made their biggest commitment and all eyes will be on President Xi to see if keeps China's word or betrays the world's trust. By the same token HK must be careful not to let the world see that the tail is wagging the dog in HK and embarrass Beijing and the party. It really is a delicate situation, and one that can explode if not dealt with quietly and diplomatically.
If Xi were to pull a Putin and arrest all the billionaires of HK, their would be a mass exodus from HK and the sabotage done to the economic machine would be irreversible. In short, Beijing should be smart and greedy enough to know that they should not fix what is not broken - but grease and oil it instead.
Hong Kong could be the stone that knocks out the mighty Goliath if cool and intelligent heads don't prevail in 2017. Why I say this...
In 2012 former Prez Hu Jintao made it clear that the party planned to to replace Hong Kong with Shanghai as the financial engine of China. This is a pipe dream since investors around the world will never truly trust the manipulations of the Shanghai index. So no matter how much they try to duplicate Hong Kong in Shanghai it just won't happen.
If Beijing gets too aggressive, the Hanseng only needs to shut down for a week to demonstrate that they account for 30% of China's revenues. Screwing with HK is economic suicide and a diplomatic resolution is the only way for everyone to save face.
Also remember that since 1978, the entire world has been watching China at the UN, WTO, and with all their trade agreements to see if they honor their commitments. In Hong Kong they made their biggest commitment and all eyes will be on President Xi to see if keeps China's word or betrays the world's trust. By the same token HK must be careful not to let the world see that the tail is wagging the dog in HK and embarrass Beijing and the party. It really is a delicate situation, and one that can explode if not dealt with quietly and diplomatically.
If Xi were to pull a Putin and arrest all the billionaires of HK, their would be a mass exodus from HK and the sabotage done to the economic machine would be irreversible. In short, Beijing should be smart and greedy enough to know that they should not fix what is not broken - but grease and oil it instead
expatlife26:
hey how about instead of spamming you address the fact that there is a consensus on pretty reasonable suspicion that you are a confirmed con man.
We know you're not a real person so why do you keep pretending? How about you talk to us like a man instead of spamming like the little criminal you are.
