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Q: At what point should we begin to worry about our safety?
At what point in the ongoing and escalating clash of powers should we Westerners on the mainland begin to worry about our safety? Some of you remember the anti-Japanese riots from several years ago and the strain that that put on native Japanese professors here. What are the chances that similarly unrestrained street mob riots could erupt against us in the near future, should all players in this international game continue along their present trajectories? Could we find willing transportation to airports in time? Would the local authorities ensure our protection before our flights left? Because, honestly, I'm kind of starting to worry. Should we leave now while the getting's good? Should we wait until we're told to leave? Or, is it still possible for a peaceful resolution to be reached? If we were eventually ordered to leave, either because our safety could not be ensured any longer or because we as Western foreigners were simply no longer welcome, how much time would we be given to leave? Would all of our things be confiscated before we left? Would our local bank accounts be frozen?
8 years 25 weeks ago in Health & Safety - China
I really don't think we have to worry about China going to war.
Sure they're aggressively grabbing land in the South China Sea, and spreading their military presence.
But it's a function of economics, just like anything else. What could they possibly gain from an armed conflict?
How would they fund their war-machine in the face of serious, Russian-esque sanctions? What percentage would go unemployed if demand for production didn't exist? They would need to be a self-contained/sustained economy. They are not. For the size of population tax income is remarkably low. Their income comes from trade. If they raised taxes, what percentage of the population would be ok with that?
An open conflict would essentially be the same as writing off Taiwan an HK too. As many have observed and commented here, the SARs are not a fan of the mainland, and HK already protested once last year. And I think we all know the Xinjiangren are tired of being a second-class minority, and the Tibetans. They would jump at a chance to gain independence while the military is distracted. Could China fight a war abroad and a rebellion at home? Not a chance.
The CCP doesn't want war, their economy is slowing down. They just want to cement as much influence as they can while there are coins in the coffer. They don't want to fight, they just want to throw their dick around and be seen as a major player. It's all about face, remember?
Shining_brow:
However, what if somewhere along the lines, someone gets bored of all the pandering and gesturing and all, and decides to call their bluff? All it takes is for one plane to go down, one ship to launch a missile, and there's going to be lots of red faces... and lots of retractions of allegiances and all that...
I'm sure that at least a few of us are aware that we're all still here because a captain of a ship (sub?) refused to hit a button when ordered to. Therefore, logically, there's no reason why a ship's captain might not take other matters into his own hands, and do the opposite!
WooMow:
Yes, I suppose that's possible. That seems rather unlikely to me. I guess there will probably be some tense situations if they continue down this path, but I think they will back off when somebody actually pushes back. I think that "push" will come as an economic sanction, not a rogue missile.
wolfhighmist:
Shining_brow, could you elaborate on your allusion to someone declining to press a button, please?
Sinobear:
Don't forget that if someone pushes the button, they will get MAD: http://people.howstuffworks.com/mutual-assured-destruction.htm
I worry about my safety in China a lot, or should I say 'often'.?
I walk most of my days here.
wolfhighmist:
Walking about in the streets here indeed poses a more immediate threat to one's safety 
The "escalating clash of powers" is blown out of proportion by the media, because it is news. Most people in my city doesn't know or care about it, because it has no impact on their lives. As a foreigner and traveler I find China safer than most countries, with , like you said, crossing the streets being the most dangerous activity. Just yesterday I was bumped by a 100 year old looking woman, pedaling her three wheeled bicycle while shouting on her mobile phone. I think the boredom will kill me if I stay long enough.
I would keep enough money for a plane ticket in a foreign bank account. If you have loved ones it might be a good idea to keep enough money for their tickets too. During normal times girlfriends and wives are called traitors, what would happen if your situation happened. I think you are worrying too much. China won't start a war. What they want is for their to be tensions but no fighting. Conveniently this is what the USA also wants. China wants tensions to distract their own public from all the problems they have at home. The USA wants tension so that all its allies in the region want to keep buying expensive weapon systems from the US.
I really don't think we have to worry about China going to war.
Sure they're aggressively grabbing land in the South China Sea, and spreading their military presence.
But it's a function of economics, just like anything else. What could they possibly gain from an armed conflict?
How would they fund their war-machine in the face of serious, Russian-esque sanctions? What percentage would go unemployed if demand for production didn't exist? They would need to be a self-contained/sustained economy. They are not. For the size of population tax income is remarkably low. Their income comes from trade. If they raised taxes, what percentage of the population would be ok with that?
An open conflict would essentially be the same as writing off Taiwan an HK too. As many have observed and commented here, the SARs are not a fan of the mainland, and HK already protested once last year. And I think we all know the Xinjiangren are tired of being a second-class minority, and the Tibetans. They would jump at a chance to gain independence while the military is distracted. Could China fight a war abroad and a rebellion at home? Not a chance.
The CCP doesn't want war, their economy is slowing down. They just want to cement as much influence as they can while there are coins in the coffer. They don't want to fight, they just want to throw their dick around and be seen as a major player. It's all about face, remember?
Shining_brow:
However, what if somewhere along the lines, someone gets bored of all the pandering and gesturing and all, and decides to call their bluff? All it takes is for one plane to go down, one ship to launch a missile, and there's going to be lots of red faces... and lots of retractions of allegiances and all that...
I'm sure that at least a few of us are aware that we're all still here because a captain of a ship (sub?) refused to hit a button when ordered to. Therefore, logically, there's no reason why a ship's captain might not take other matters into his own hands, and do the opposite!
WooMow:
Yes, I suppose that's possible. That seems rather unlikely to me. I guess there will probably be some tense situations if they continue down this path, but I think they will back off when somebody actually pushes back. I think that "push" will come as an economic sanction, not a rogue missile.
wolfhighmist:
Shining_brow, could you elaborate on your allusion to someone declining to press a button, please?
Sinobear:
Don't forget that if someone pushes the button, they will get MAD: http://people.howstuffworks.com/mutual-assured-destruction.htm
Sorry, I wasn't necessarily inquiring about the likelihood of war. Instead, I was asking about something which might precede any actual war by days, weeks, or even months: open physical hostility among native mainland Chinese citizens toward Westerners. I pointed toward the anti-Japanese riots of three years ago as an example.
Parenthetically, what would you expect to be the public sentiment toward Westerners and especially Americans if in a widely publicized event American and Japanese vessels encroached beyond the 12-mile limit in tandem? Can you imagine if they were given reason to direct the hatred and hostility they ritualistically cultivate toward Japanese toward Westerners? That might be too much of a frightening scenario for me. to remain here.
icnif77:
I never worry. I think, it's a 'waste-of-time-feeling' without condition of being able to see the future.
Here some read for....:
http://www.nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/no-bigger-question-will-there-be-war-china-14232
One of my teenage students actually brought the issue up during class the other day, wanting to know my take on the situation. I didn't bite, of course.
ambivalentmace:
i always bite and say start the war tomorrow, the sooner the better, because when it's over, the survivors rebuild and that means lots of jobs and money for everyone, the look of horror on the kid's skull of mush is priceless.
Don't believe what people write here.
Trust your instincts.
Noel05:
"Well, gentlemen! When the shit hits the fan, some guys run and some guys stay.
Time to launch my fashionista line of "I'm not an American" tshirts. Written in Chinese, Arabic, English and Russian, of course.
A must have for expats and esl teachers.
A war with China will be like WWI...a situation quickly moving out of control, not a planned thing. Somebody calls another person's bluff, a blip on a radar, a virus, and things escalate quickly.
China isn't going to declare war on its customers
ScotsAlan:
Double vote if I could. America is not going to war with its supplier. This is an Obama/ Xi pre-arranged flex of muscle. Obama wants to avoid the war hawk republicans gaining votes because they think the democrats are weak. China wants a democrat government in the White House. Ha ha. I bet China wants Hilary. No way do they want the Bern. And no fucking way do they want trump. This is just a ploy to influence the elections.
wolfhighmist:
ScotsAlan, your informed opinion is that it's all a grand conspiracy between Xi and Obama to prevent a Republican from winning the U.S. Presidency next year? 
Are you okay, Mr. Owen?
silverbutton1:
@scotsalan. http://www.morningliberty.com/2010/10/23/top-8-veils-of-understanding-by-don-harkins/
I worry about my safety whenever I am near anything with wheels being operated by Chinese people - that includes shopping trolleys and pull along luggage. Wheels and Chinese is a deadly combination!
Who is afraid of Chinese guys seriously? Most of the older ones (30+) can't run 20 meters without vomiting and the youth are too feminine to risk scratching their delicate skin in a fight.
They never confront foreign men unless there are at least 10 of them and you are alone, and even then if you walk toward them to ask if they have a problem, they will say no problem because they fear you.
You have an altercation with a drunk fool he will try to call his "friends" to help him but since there is no such thing as Chinese solidarity and they are all out here trying to stab each other in the back, none of them will come, ever.
This is China, the only attacks on foreigners were made by mentally unstable guys or organized gangs because the foreigner put their nose into illegal business.
Well, that was quite an eventful week we just had. Do you think it was all helpful or hurtful?
