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Q: What will China be like in 5 years?
I know this is impossible to answer, so many variables, but any one want to speculate? I love speculation. Bubble burst? World Leader? Richer? Poorer? Currency?
i predict:
more unemployment
more pollution and as a result,
more civil unrest
other countries will probably realise that Chinese students are not returning home and there will be greater restrictions on them traveling abroad and closer monitoring of possible visa violations. So those who are unable to leave China will cause problems at home.
I expect the housing bubble to burst, creating financial ripples throughout the country. I don't think this will affect the outside world that much since all the banks here don't have much dealings with international banks. However, the economy will suffer though not go into recession. Still, people will lose jobs because houses will be repossessed and bankruptcies will rise. The pollution will become so hazardous especially in Beijing. Car pooling would have begun by then to reduce congestion and smog. The Chinese yuan might be floated but realistically, not just yet. Will there be unrest? Yes, but will not be widespread since the use of force is prevalent when dealing with unrest in this country. Territorial disputes would have been settled, which side getting the rocks, not sure but don't think there will be any armed conflicts. More migration to the cities, more old people, less social support, more people trying to get ahead, ruder, less compromising, etc.
ironman510:
If the housing bubble burst, will that bring down the price of monthly rent?
louischuahm:
I would like to think so but this is China and we all know that sometimes economics doesn't apply here. Keep those fingers crossed though.
China will require foreign teachers to have a PhD. Yahoo and Google will be illegal.China might require citizens to buy their products rather than Foreign products. I know I'm just exaggerating. But I've already been here 7 years. Visa laws have gotten stricter, but not too much. I really don't see anything really changing drastically in the next 5 years.that's my honest opinion. I've had no "Oh My God" experiences in China, so I figure there still won't be any 5 years from now.
I think they will still be pushing people into the cities meaning more congestion everywhere, also more power stations being built to deal with the larger cities and so more pollution. The housing bubble, if not already burst will be straining at the leash. The banking system will carry on for as long as the government can keep pushing money at bankrupt institutions to keep them afloat, but when it does go down it will go down hard. Education will be about the same as now. I think there will be a gradual move to more westernised standards of medicine. There will be fewer western companies here and more foreigners will have already left the country. Visa rules and violations will be policed more effectively. The yuan will still not be floated freely against other currencies and I think as the Chinese will be getting more vocal with their dissatisfaction of the government.
TMaster:
No one is pushing anyone to the city. Everyone goes to look for a chance and many end up disappointed.
Scandinavian:
As much as I hope you're right on medicine, what makes you think so? I see no one complaining about the TCM crap out in the society, people are sucking it up, the bigger bag of grass you leave the pharmacy with, the more of a bigshot you are.
tomcatflyer:
The reason I think so, Scandinavian, is I know some doctors here and they all say a lot of TCM is just placebo. Note I said a lot, not all. A friend of mine who was giving english lessons in a hospital asked the doctors what they thought of the drips you see everyone hooked up to. The answer was that they achieve nothing, it is just a way of billing more. The younger doctors do seem to be more clued up and want to do away with witch doctor medicine. What very often happens is that the hospital management demand that so much of this stuff is prescribed and doctors are watched to see they prescribe their share.
My short version is :
Everything that was improving will keep improving at slow pace.
Everything that was worsening will keep worsening at slow pace.
The only real question is how long till shit hits the fan. If not within five years then I don't predict much new. I suspect the show can go on for quite a while until it won't.
The national business plan consisting of stealing foreign technologies while waiting for the new generation of new abroad graduates to promote innovation will prove a sore disappointment.
The gov't does respond to people's needs nowadays, but only when it feels forced by an overwhelming majority. I don't have high expectations of the current generation, what with all the wumaos and smallmindedness. But the Chinese firewall is not hermetic, and translation technology is more readily available nowadays. There are discussions about the path this country is taking on the internet. Best to just let the native geniuses find the answers online, and claim them as their own. Every now and then there is a positive change, so who knows? Renewable energy was a start - i hope pollution laws will be stricter and enforced properly. As for values? This culture hasn't changed much in the last 5000 years, so don't expect them to become part of the rest of the world in 5. Give them 50, and our (grand)kids might be proud to live in this country (without any self-delusion).
TMaster:
Trust me when I say that everything possible is done to hermetize the Chinese Internet and making it practically more of an big intranet.
Doesn't matter if you are just a casual user or a researcher of some sort, it takes a tremendous amount of effort to even make yourself available to research outside sources.
Everything is rigged right from the source, you can't buy hardware that comes unclogged with stuff from big malware companies like Baidu/Tencent and others, when you can expect that any "foreign" service will be discreetly replaced with a preinstalled counterpart, or simply blocked, slowed down, or made impractical of use when everything else fails. Aside from that, all the bloatware or copycat services are promoted (like Baike instead of Wikipedia, which is at best incomplete, and at worse complete falsifications) replacing their more legitimate counterparts.
Point being to keep people well within the walls of the local Internet. While escaping will never be made impossible, it will however require a lot of determination, patience and tech knowledge, which discards the vast majority.
Bottom line, don't expect anything from there.
Not sure. I don't plan on being here to find out. Key word "plan".....the best laid plans.....
i hope google finds a way to over ride the firewall and make the censors go ape shit crazy, but it would be better if a chinese person anonymously figures it out and spreads his good fortune. i dont think governments are going to be able to keep up with technology.
TMaster:
Google has dozens of ways to play hide and seek with the Chinese firewall for a long long while if they wanted to.
The question is not whether they can or not, but rather whether they want or not. Or, if they have a corporate and political interest in doing so. Answer is no. They don't. Google wouldn't cash in much money in pissing the government, and even assuming a minute they would want to act selflessly in favor of Internet freedom (try hard to imagine), the end result would either be complete blocage to or full blown official BS propaganda to discard them.
Google was very clever in its choice to retreat from China. Not only for public image, but also because they probably expected that accepting the conditions presented to them back then would only lead to way to more and more submission, ending with random corruption charges or whatever could be grabbed to rule them out.
Sometime during the next 5 years some brainiac will discover that if drink fridges are turned on, the drinks will get cold.
Scandinavian:
and after that, how long time until it will be discovered that if windows are kept shut, buildings can be heated and comfortable ?
royceH:
Hahaha....yeah, and within that time frame some Einstein will realise the reason he keeps breaking his glasses when he falls off his chair and lands on his head is because he drinks too much baijiu. Idiots.
ScotsAlan:
But they will never work out that the best way to get into an elevator is to wait for the people in the elevator to get out 
.
Increasing social unrest.
Most are probably not aware about how much is actually going on.
http://www.numble.com/PHP/mysql/clbmape.html
At some point, the migrant workers in the factories will learn how much they are being exploited, form unions and go all Marxist on the country.
