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Posts: 921

Shifu

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Q: What will happen to all those high rise buildings?

Most of the high rise buildings complex have been built in the past 10 years and for the "older" ones, signs of deterioration are already clearly visible.

Now, the way I see doing things is till the gardens are new and to be sold, the management keeps things well, once everything's got sold, they begin cutting on the maintenance.

Add that in general people have no care whatsoever for common spaces.

So, I've been struck with the question: what will happen to all those buildings in 20 years from now?

Who will care about the maintenance? Management, won't, there's no profit in there, apartment owners will just care of their own concrete box. Will everything end up in high rise piles of shitty rotten buildings?

 

8 years 23 weeks ago in  Housing - China

 
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The government will just move them to one of the ghost city's and the process will start again

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8 years 23 weeks ago
 
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I think that the places will continue to fall apart until it gets to the point where someone else sees a pile of shitty old buildings where he wants to build a new apartment complex or mall or whatever that will also last about 10 years before it is due to be condemned,  the residents will be compensated (hopefully), and will move into another poorly built complex, the residents in the newly built buildings will repeat the process.

andy74rc:

"The residents will be compensated".... I was also thinking to this point, but here's the difference: when they built this round of gardens, the people to compensate was a small number compared to all the apartments to be built and sold. But when you fill up a 30 store building, what do you compensate? The whole hundreds of families living there? This would make the process of demolishing and rebuilding MUCH less profitable.

And those gardens, they do occupy lot of space so at a certain point there will be no more space to keep on building new ones unless you replace the old ones. But...

8 years 23 weeks ago
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Lord_hanson:

@andy, that is completely true. I am guessing they will make the buildings even taller, their claims of it being a superior building will be equally tall.

8 years 23 weeks ago
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8 years 23 weeks ago
 
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Do you seriously think that these buildings will still be standing in 20 years?

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8 years 23 weeks ago
 
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The government will just move them to one of the ghost city's and the process will start again

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8 years 23 weeks ago
 
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have u ever seen old areas of Queens, or the Bronx?  same thing will happen.

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8 years 23 weeks ago
 
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Shifu

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China is one massive bubble with 70% of its people's assets locked tight hard in overvalued real estate built with poor quality materials and that is now crumbling apart.

 

The problem is, China already has an oversupply of living units, so even if the owners want to sell, there will be no one to buy. Foreigners all around the world know of the situation and won't buy any asset in China, even with the recently relaxed rules for Foreigners to buy flats in China there has been no take off, because people know.

 

My garden is 10 years old, it is the most high end luxurious residence in Foshan and the cladding outside is already crumbling apart, there is always an elevator in maintenance mode, ... Other residences and construction sites around are not selling/building anymore since the real estate began to stall, they just sit here done but empty (no lights at night) or half way built and exposed to the elements that might ultimately take care of it. From what I have seen, the situation is roughly the same nationwide.

 

The 1% super rich Chinese are buying assets overseas in the West, millions in the middle class lost their life savings in the SH market a couple of months ago. Factories are running in overcapacity to keep the nongs employed and preserve social harmony, domestic consumption doesn't take of and represents a fraction of the GDP, local debts are skyrocketing. Don't be fooled by the CCP claiming its grandeur and flexing its muscles, it's typical from failing regimes to organize big military parades and brag about their success. China is one massive bubble waiting to pop, and it's going to be ugly.

RiriRiri:

Bubbles burst when reality catches a collective delusion, and the more it goes, the more I honestly couldn't swear the latest doesn't come in infinite supply for the Chinese.

8 years 23 weeks ago
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8 years 23 weeks ago
 
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