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Q: Who will win the trade war?

I can see both sides here... and I sort of agree with Trump.

But who will win?

34 weeks 4 days ago in  Business & Jobs - China

 
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/08/17/china-economic-nationalism-success-trump-trade-war-tariff-column/925385002/

 

if tariffs dont work, why has it worked for 25 years in China, Indeed. someone is finally using intelligence instead of political bullshit talking points.

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13 weeks 2 days ago
 
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As Trump said (that is often taken out of context). When you're losing 800 billion a year a trade war can't hurt you. 

Think about the statement and not the statement maker

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34 weeks 4 days ago
 
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OT: What day is today? Ohh, Sat... 

 

On Thursday:

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-23/chinese-newspaper-beijing-shou...

 

On Thursday, a leading Chinese state-run newspaper announced the unthinkable: Beijing must prepare for “a direct military clash” over self-ruled Taiwan after a mid-level U.S. official arrived in Taipei on Tuesday, angering senior officials in Beijing.

 

more ...

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34 weeks 4 days ago
 
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both wl lose.. to greatr / lessr degrees.

winnr wl b some outsider country/s.... who will find the opportunities n fill the gaps created..

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34 weeks 4 days ago
 
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I really wish I knew more about trade imbalances and all that crap... too lazy to look it up though.

 

From what I understand though China sells more of their products to America than America sells to China, 800 billion more and that's Trump's problem with China.

 

What I don't understand is how putting tariffs on what China sells to America is going to help America. Surely America is buying this stuff because they need it, and businesses that buy it pay taxes and employ Americans, and presumably they buy Chinese goods because the goods are either not available in America or are too expensive and there would be no profit in buying local?

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34 weeks 4 days ago
 
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But consider Wall street money in China. For example, Betsy devos has an amway factory up the road from me. Massive. Probably about 4k employees.

Will the sanctions affect stuff made here with American investment? What if China imposed an export tax on Iphones? That would be interesting.

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34 weeks 4 days ago
 
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Like every other time there will be a back door trade off that we won't know about for years to come or ever .
They are just playing the game.
Maybe there is a deal under the table about the take over of a third party ...two possible candidates come to mind.
Time will tell

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34 weeks 4 days ago
 
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But here is the thing. Under Obama, US corps squirred their overseas earnings away on offshore jurasdictions. The EU even fined Ireland, trying to force them to take tax from apples 220 billion stored there while waiting for a republican government to offer a cash repatriation amnesty.

With companies keeping their cash in tax havens to avoid tax, how can we be sure the numbers are right?

This was yet another Obama failure. He did not crack down on tax avoidence. Because how could he? Pay to play. We fund your campaign... you dont crack down on offshore tax avoidance.

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34 weeks 4 hours ago
 
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14 weeks 4 days ago
 
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https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-10/us-orders-chinese-conglomerate-sell-office-building-near-trump-tower

 

The war is just beginning.https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trumps-trade-war-evolve-damaging-currency-war-171019174.html

 

China, so you want to devalue your currency to keep folks buying your shit, well, we can devalue our currency to have people buy shit from us. Make the tariffs equal and fair period, I am not going to back down. I will play as dirty as you have because I am not a yellow coward politician and winning a deal to the point of economic collapse or bankrutpcy is not a problem. LIKE I SAID, For this guy, it's personal.

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14 weeks 4 days ago
 
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My prediction is that China will win this one. Two good reasons: China is only now switching to a consumer oriented economy; and, China has other markets to persue that include some higly populated countries. Why will the US lose? Trump gives me the imprssion that he doesn't understand economics. Like most businessmen, they think in terms of short term gains rather than long term strategy. We must not forget he is a successfull business man. But attacking his allies, and going agianst his own government people is making America look bad. Trump is America's most dangerous security threat. There are really too many variables that will pop up on this trade war. I can't say I like Trump. But he has got balls. The bigger question is can the US recover after the next election in 2020 assuming that Trump is not re-elected? And what happens if America does win the trade war?

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14 weeks 4 days ago
 
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China has the most to loose in a trade war...but they will make up for the loss by taking over land and sea areas till they are stopped

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14 weeks 4 days ago
 
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Nobody wins. Everyone loses a little something did anything this could all be staged and backdoor agreements that we know nothing about. I never believed of trusted a single bit of news especially about money

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14 weeks 4 days ago
 
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The US will win. China's stock markets are already down 27 to 35%, their lowest since 2010, effectively making Japan once again the second largest financial center in the world.

 

China simply has no leverage in this war because they already used to tax all imports 20 to 40% all along despite it being against the rules of the WTO. The US had no taxes until now so they have a lot of leverage.

 

China's middle class for what it is simply cannot replace the US market. By US standards of what constitutes 'middle class' there are no more than 20 million people falling into that category in China, similar to countries like France and Britain, in the US 140 million people are middle class, China simply has a lot more poor people but these can't afford to consume.

 

The worst decision China could have made as an answer to tariffs was to devaluate their currency even further which they did, giving credit to Trump's claims that China is a currency manipulator, but also digging that giant debt hole even further because China needs to import a lot of resources from abroad and it now costs them more to do so.

 

China is expected to enter a Japan-style stagnation, the methods used by the US to push it down this road are different but the consequences are expected to be the same or similar, only China as a society is much poorer and headed straight to the middle income trap (not even there yet) because of its massive debt.

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14 weeks 4 days ago
 
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Xi being criticized by his own party and China is going to have to keep buying soy from the US, so

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14 weeks 4 days ago
 
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the real advantage for china is the american electoral system. china has aggresively and almost selectively targeted the battleground states. democracies are vulnerable to his stategy whereas china is not. it will probably produce results. already trump has resulted to a farmers' bailout, essentially socialized farming. It does irritate me that republicans are against universal medicare
 but not against socialized farming or increased mitlitary spending. The army is a socialist institution. a national health service does not ruin an economy but socialized farming does.

 

china does trade unfairly. tariffs are higher, companies have to take on a chinese partner who adds no value, intellectual property theft. so i must admit it is good to see them sweat a little. they have a lot more to lose. maybe they will be forced to open up a little more.

 

a long-term trade war will put china, the us and probably all of the west into a recession.

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14 weeks 3 days ago
 
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/08/17/china-economic-nationalism-success-trump-trade-war-tariff-column/925385002/

 

if tariffs dont work, why has it worked for 25 years in China, Indeed. someone is finally using intelligence instead of political bullshit talking points.

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13 weeks 2 days ago
 
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When it comes to markets, we shouldn't underestimate China. It has a healthy luxury market, loved by top brands for keeping sales viable. Luxury consumption is in decline in the West.

As many people misunderstand, tariffs are levied on the consumers of foreign products. Supposedly to protect local businesses from competition. China has a huge luxury market. When it's exported goods are sold less, and they make less money, they will simply earn the difference back in tax hikes on foreign luxuries. If it gets extreme, they'll simply copy all the McDs and KFCs that are taxed out of business,with local knockoff chains.

Trump doesn't understand the first thing about trade. His trade advisor was found on amazon, where he was selling his scaremongering anti-China books. Competence will beat incompetence into the ground.

With all the ideological chest-thumping and trolling of authority figures, Xi Jinping is set to make more than just money, he will command respect for simply not falling into the same mudflinging as the rest of the world leaders.

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13 weeks 1 day ago
 
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https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2160814/thanks-mr-trump-state-media-mocks-us-president-helping

 

Glad to help you out to become a more diverse economy and less export dependent, the American voters are looking out for your economic security, your welcome.

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12 weeks 6 days ago
 
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  •  

 "No Further Talks Scheduled": China-U.S. Trade Negotiations A Complete Bust

not only are no further talks scheduled at this point but the Chinese officials have reportedly raised the possibility that no further negotiations could happen until after November’s mid-term elections in the U.S.

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  • Aug 23, 2018 11:27 PM
  • 37

 

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12 weeks 5 days ago
 
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Escobar: Sun Tzu And The Art Of Fighting A Trade War

It will be long, it will be nasty and Trump would be foolish to underestimate Xi and the resolve of China...

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  • Aug 25, 2018 9:15 PM
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12 weeks 3 days ago
 
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Here is the latest shot fired in the trade war.

https://finance.nine.com.au/2018/09/12/13/50/china-tariff-war-licenses-u...

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10 weeks 12 hours ago
 
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Stocks, Yuan Jump On Report Of New US-China Trade Talks

Once again, 'hope' is alive,  as US equities surge higher on headlines claim Washington is seeking a new round of trade-talks with China (just two weeks after the last heralded round of trade talks amounted to a nothing-burger but prompted panic-buying in stocks).

 

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9 weeks 6 days ago
 
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The only winners are those who have absoluely zero investments in China.

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9 weeks 5 days ago
 
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https://thediplomat.com/2016/11/with-trumps-election-time-for-china-to-save-the-world/

 

Some humor with my gin and tonic, hot toddy for the evening.

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9 weeks 4 days ago
 
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https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/china-apos-pockets-may-not-182700308.html

 

So your currency printing machines are overheating and can't keep up, next time have the machines made by the Germans or the Japanese, problem solved, spend baby spend.

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9 weeks 3 days ago
 
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