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Q: Will the next generation of leaders be different?
Bouncing off Eorthisio's question, do you think that this generation is just waiting for the old generation to die off? The generation gaps are huge between the generation that are currently ruling who lived through the cultural revolution and opening up to the west, and this generation who don't know about life before the internet.
So many young people know about censorship and see through so much crap-they have no faith in the leaders etc, so do you think that they will rule differently?
Hmmmm
I've always thought the same thing, as more and more of the younger generation are studying abroad, learning English, and reading foreign material. China needs at least another 30 years anyway to develop because that's about how much time it was closed off from the rest of the world during Mao's time.
laowaigentleman:
Many of the new generation went to America to study including Xi himself as well as Bo Xilai. The problem is not their exposure to western ideas. They know them very well. Their problems is that they know that they are privileged members of an entrenched elite and if they compromise this, their children might have to go out, get a real job and perhaps only make a small amount of money. Think of all the well educated people in Hong Kong who have to scrooge away for ten years just for a box in Mong Kok.
It's a time worn cliche. They go out young and idealistic and by the time they're old enough to be considered for a position of power, their girth has expanded and their optimism and idealism has receded backwards with their hair. At that point all they can think of is self-preservation and the accumulation of the means necessary to escape in a crisis.
It's the system itself, not the individuals who comprise the total sum of the component parts.
Furthermore. You all know the red royalty leave a lot to be desired intellectually. Do you think it is likely that they'd implement a system which might result in them being scrutinized by the Chinese people? It would be akin to shooting themselves in the head.
hi2u:
Point noted. But I'm hoping that if enough of the common people wisen up, they will at least give the powers that be a harder time.
Deng went to France, Zhou was cultured as anybody, and Mao was an a teacher and scholar. Look what they produced....Education and world travel aren't the cure all.
laowaigentleman:
Mao was an annoying pseudo-intellectual bully who tried to audit many of the classes at Peking University. Because he was treated so disparagingly by the professors he harassed, he developed a lifelong enmity towards them. Mao wasn't a scholar, he read to devise schemes and obtain narratives which he could use to manipulate people.
Not to distract from your point at all. In fact to compensate I'll try to bolster it by pointing out that Pol Pot went to Paris to study too.
rasklnik:
What I mean is that by the standards of his day Mao was a member of the intellectual class. He was not some stakhanovite worker, or farmer. I do not think that education of the 'elite' in China has led to any real progress except for the economic.
-As for the quality of his intellectualism, it is certainly rather, dermo as he never learned Russian, nor English.
laowaigentleman:
Or putonghua either according to a certain Miss Jung from Sichuan.
rasklnik:
Which makes you wonder how effective he was as a public speaker...or did people just know they were going to get shot for not cheering?
laowaigentleman:
I'll bet he was as good a public speaker as he was as a 60 something year old fat chain smoker masquerading as some kind of swimming champion.
Edgar Snow described his mannerisms as effete and said he had a slightly shrill voice. It's pretty funny to picture him up on the stage throwing a big queeny strop while everyone pretends that he's a compelling orator for fear of being dragged off to the gulag.
In China, you have political leaders, those who go through the CCP. I believe that staying in the CCP while maintaining some ambition will format you deeply. Once formatted
* anything like a civil society will sound like an horrible thing, you will believe that Chinese people can not be responsible for themselves apart from an elite, the CCP
* anything not Chinese will be seen as vaguely menacing, or potentially menacing
* taking advantage of the power granted to you by the administration is fine, be discrete, don't get caught and be aware of who's the boss.
And then, you have industrial leaders. Those largely profit from the CCP who is helping them (putting tariffs, lenient laws, very lenient rule of law), in a mutually benefiting symbiosis. Why industrial leaders would ever rock the boat ? That goes with young people who know very well all this and want to get rich *NOW*. Some are well intended, but cynicism and opportunism pass for intelligence in China. True everywhere, but China pushes it far.
Intellectuals have zero weight in China. Famous book authors are few and are completely apolitical. Movies are neutered.
The next generation will be a cosmetic change over the current one. They will dress a bit cooler and be less reserved.
RiriRiri:
This. Everything is said here.
Though I'm not sure they'd try to look less rigid.
I mean, I remember people expecting exactly the same thing from the "new generation of Chinese leaders to come" back in the Hu era: "They'll be more open, more modern, they'll follow the Hong Kong model" and blah. Even I believed it, but now we see the result.
You're right. An oligarchy has emerged and they actually succeeded in accumulating all the wealth and power while not giving away anything. There is no reason for them to rock the boat and the selection process within the leading circles makes it damn sure it stays that way.
I am an optomist about many things in modern day China. At no time in their history have they had such a substantial change in their society, culture and traditions. Even though the Chinese government is "training" the young Communist party club members, I think there will be major changes once President Xi departs. In 7 years time, China will have a new leader. It will be interesting to see how far China has advanced in that time. And, it will be interesting to see how the young Communist party leaders shape things. I see hope for change. It may never be the change a westerner might like to see. That will never happen until the current political party is gone. But, to maintain China's advances and continued growth, they will have to balance on that fence between total government supremacy and capitalistic harmony in a world economy. I seriously doubt that President Xi and Russia's Putin plans of changing the world economy and policies to fit their style of governance has much chance of success. It is interesting to see them try though.
Bush number 1. Bush number 2. Jed Bush number 3? Get a grip dude.
