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Q: how long before war breaks out in this region?
A very interesting question indeed.
If China was still politcally and economically the same as in 1989, the chances to have another revolution are greatly enhanced.
However, Chinese young generation is now more interested in making money (as much and as fast as they can) and entertaining themselves with KTV than promoting social, economic, or political reform of the Chinese society. Moreover, contrary to before, where in some way, political issues were of interest to students, now they couldn't make difference between a leninist or a stalinist, even less with a capitalist or neo-liberalist.
Some riots occur every year in one part or another of China, but the "incidents" are always siltently controled by the media (except in the case of Tibet or Xinjiang where the situations were unpredictable and out of control for the Government).
The one thing that can really put China in a real bad shape would be another financial crisis or that the US economy crash: China just rely on exporting its product, basic commodities prices are far less expensive in US or in Europe than in China, and the governement is currently unable to fight the inflation ramping in the Chinese economy.
We'll see, as for me, I hope I can be back home before it happens.
i was referring more to the south china sea dispute and taiZwan i just read an article today that china is sending a warship to patrol the disputed territorial waters. if you nhavent seen the map that shows what china is trying to claim as their territorial waters you should look at it, if you are in the phils and go to the beach on the west coast, step in the water you are immediately in china if they had their way
i origanally thought china would wait until they finished developing their "carrier killer" missiles and 1 or 2 more air craft carriers of their own but this seems to be an aggressive step
I doubt China is so foolish that it would engage in open war with its tiny neighbors. It's all just posturing. Like how a cat makes itself look bigger to scare off opponents. The real potential for trouble is on the Indian border. Over the next 20-30 years there will probably be a major conflict as India rises and will eventually surpass China.
