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Q: Is a large military necessarily an effective military?
Many countries, like the US and others, proudly beat their chest about having a large military, lots of weapons, and a huge budget.
Not specifying any country, but if that military is untrained and undisciplined, is it a major threat to anyone?
The days of large easily identifiable armies fighting each other are long gone. Those were the days when 'war' was between armies and civilians, by and large, were left alone.
The name of the game now is asymmetric warfare, and cyberwarfare, place your 'soldiers' amongst the civilians and blow the bejeesus out of the 'enemy' as they come past, it's hugely effective and doesn't require high numbers of highly trained personnel, just incredibly high motivation, which of course can be achieved through indoctrination. This type of warfare most definitely does not require large, well trained or even particularly well equipped military. However, it is only really effective when used defensively and when you are willing to give up your territory while carrying out these asymmetric attacks.
If on the other hand you want to defend territory you need a real time army, but again, so long as you are only being defensive the technological requirements are not as high as those needed for an offensive campaign. Of course if you ignore the 'rules' of war and fight 'dirty' then even those requirements are limited.
Force multipliers used to be major military assets, now they are a mind-set and willingness to do the 'wrong thing'.
Shining_brow:
If you're fighting to defend your home, and particularly in a losing war, there is no such thing as 'dirty'... You know, all's fair in love and war.
China is surrounded by large militaries, some much larger than China, so It really wouldn't stand much of a chance, fighting on so many fronts. China's military really doesn't have any noticeable discipline, morale or commitment to a cause.
Of the 10 largest militaries in the world (including reserve and paramilitary), four of China's neighbours, all of which China has territorial disputes with, have larger and more disciplined militaries.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_military_and_paramilitary_personnel
the uk went across the sea and kick the argentines arse without help. and despite having a poor plan and a few military blunders.
the us is struggling in the middle east 700billion budget and all.
leadership, politics (the absence of) and a just cause are the keys to an efficient and successful military. sadly americans do not have a pucking clue. we continue to sink our tax dollars into the military industrial complex and we get little in return. the great weapons we pay to develop gets sold to other countries and even to our enemies.
simple answer ask iraq which was the 3rd largest army in the world 1million
There are three possible ways that the world can work. First, we can continue to live in a world where a single set of nations maintains kind of world peace where in large conflicts are prevented through the threat of force and the policing actions, the types of asymmetrical wars that Hugh is talking about. In such a case a large, well funded, well equipped armed forces is important because it makes that threat of violence credible. Consider the situation between Japan and China this past summer and fall. American ambiguity over whether or not it would involve itself ultimately kept China and Japan enough off the war path. Japan wasn't going to risk the US not getting involve, and China wasn't going to risk that it would. Without the unquestioned superiority of the US navy and airforce, its likely that China tries to push onto those island and later extend itself into the South China Sea. We'd end up with the type of conflict that we haven't seen since the middle of the 20th century.
The second is one where the world divides itself into two camps, like during the Cold War. A large armed forces is important because it makes both countries more attractive as a potential partner for non-aligned nations.
In the third scenario, a multipolar world, a large military is incredibly important because a multipolar world is so much more inherently unstable. Imagine what might have happened last year between China and Japan if they and the US were all roughly equal. Conflict would be all but assured.
Yes, a large and untrained army is a threat. The owner of that army becomes overconfident and starts to bully the little guys around it thinking they have power. I can think of many examples in history and at present.
Who needs soldiers when you can colonize other countries by exporting excess people?
